# Prioritize Bets > Use when deciding what to build next, when validated hypotheses outnumber the team's appetite, when a ranking feels stale, or when someone asks which bet comes first. Ranks the incubating and promotion-ready bets against the active prioritization framework — RICE by default, with WSJF and ICE as config options — deriving the confidence factor from each hypothesis's evidence-banded confidence block (never free-guessed), persisting scores into hypothesis frontmatter so the ranking survives the session, warning (never blocking) when a bet is ranked on gut-band evidence, and rewriting the derived priority board at docs/discovery/priority.md. Trigger phrases — 'what should we build next', 'rank the backlog', 'prioritize the hypotheses', 'which bet comes first', 'the backlog is stale'. NOT for promotion-gate scoring, NOT for triaging raw incoming asks (intake-triage), and NOT for attacking the assumptions inside one hypothesis. - Skill: `arozumenko/prioritize-bets` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 4 files) - Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add arozumenko/prioritize-bets` - Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/arozumenko/prioritize-bets/raw - Safety review: pending - Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex - Category: Product & Planning - License: MIT - Author: arozumenko (https://skillmd.com/u/arozumenko) - Updated: 2026-09-22 - Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/arozumenko/prioritize-bets --- # prioritize-bets The **ranking** skill. It answers "which of these validated bets comes first?" — the question the promotion gate never asks. A promotion gate tells you a hypothesis *may* proceed; it never tells you *in what order*. When more bets clear the gate than the team's appetite can build, this skill turns the backlog into a defensible ordered list and writes the ranks where they survive the session. **The load-bearing rule: a RICE or ICE score cannot exist without its evidence class.** RICE's (and ICE's) *confidence* factor is not a number the PO types in — it is **derived** from the hypothesis's own evidence-banded `confidence:` block. Prioritization therefore consumes the validation pipeline instead of vibes: a bet nobody has validated cannot borrow a high confidence to jump the queue. Every persisted score carries an `evidence_note` naming the dimensions and band it came from, so the ranking is auditable. ## What this skill reads (config, by name) From `.agents/profile.md`, if it carries a `prioritization:` note: - **the active `framework:`** (RICE | WSJF | ICE) and its scales: the RICE `impact_scale` (`massive:3 high:2 medium:1 low:0.5 minimal:0.25`), `reach_unit`, `effort_unit`; the WSJF cost-of-delay components and job-size unit; the ICE scales. **The framework and its numbers live in the profile note, never hardcoded in this skill** — change the note and the math changes. If `.agents/profile.md` carries no `prioritization:` note (or the note doesn't exist), default to **RICE** with the default scales documented in [`references/frameworks.md`](references/frameworks.md), and say plainly that the default is in effect. - **a `staleness_days` value**, if the note carries one: a persisted `scored_on` older than this is what a later status/review pass would flag as stale. This skill writes the stamp that such a check would read; it does not itself audit staleness. From `.agents/profile.md` and the project's `docs/`, more broadly: the product one-liner and stakeholder cast, so a `reach` estimate names a real customer count rather than an invented one. And these `docs/discovery/` files, per candidate hypothesis: - its **`confidence:` block** (`value` / `usability` / `feasibility` / `viability`, each 0–10) — the *only* input to the derived confidence factor (see the derivation below); - its **`appetite:`** (`2-weeks` | `4-weeks` | `8-weeks`) — the effort / job-size input, in weeks; - its **`outcome:`** anchor — a bet still pointing at an unset/`#tbd` outcome is unvalidated on the most important axis; rank it, but flag it (it belongs in `define-outcomes` first); - its **`priority:`** block — the durable home of the score this skill writes. ## Step 0 — consult relevant lessons (by tag, background only) Grep `docs/discovery/evidence/learnings/` by **topic tag** for any recorded lesson about scoring this kind of bet — a reach estimate that proved wildly off, an "effort" that hid a dependency, a framework that misled here before — and let it inform your reach/impact/effort estimates. This is background evidence-gathering, not a hard requirement — skip it if no learnings exist yet. ## The confidence derivation (RICE and ICE) Never hand-type confidence. Compute it from the hypothesis's `confidence:` block: 1. **Aggregate** — take the **mean** of the dimensions that are set (`value`, `usability`, `feasibility`, `viability`). A missing dimension is excluded. If none is set, the bet is **unscoreable** — say so, and route it to a verification/challenge pass on that hypothesis rather than inventing a confidence. 2. **Band** the mean on the evidence scale (shinpr's bands, adopted product-wide): | mean confidence | band | RICE factor | ICE confidence | |---|---|---|---| | 0 – <3 | **gut** (0–2) | 0.2 | round(mean), min 1 | | 3 – <5 | **structured** (3–4) | 0.5 | round(mean) | | 5 – <8 | **data-backed** (5–7) | 0.8 | round(mean) | | 8 – 10 | **tested** (8–10) | 1.0 | round(mean) | 3. **Record** the derivation in `evidence_note`, e.g. `confidence derived from value:6 usability:5 feasibility:7 viability:6 → mean 6.0 (data-backed band) → 0.8`. The full formulas for all three frameworks — RICE, WSJF, ICE — and worked examples are in [`references/frameworks.md`](references/frameworks.md). WSJF is shipped deliberately: it is the one framework here that surfaces *time-criticality* the others hide — say so plainly if the PO is choosing a framework. ## Process ### 1. Assemble the candidate set Default scope = every hypothesis in `docs/discovery/hypotheses/` whose `status:` frontmatter field is `incubating`, plus any `promoted` bet not yet built, excluding `status: parked`. If the PO names a narrower set ("rank these three"), use it. Read each candidate's frontmatter only — do not open the full bodies unless a reach/impact estimate needs the detail. ### 2. Confirm the framework Read `.agents/profile.md`'s `prioritization:` note, if present. RICE is the default when it is absent. State which framework is active in one line; if the PO asks for a different one this run, use it but **do not edit `.agents/profile.md`** (the framework is a config decision, made by the person who owns the profile, not by this skill). ### 3. Score each candidate For every candidate, gather the framework's inputs, deriving confidence per the table above: - **RICE** — `reach` (a number per the `reach_unit`; ask the PO or estimate from evidence, and say which), `impact` (map the PO's judgement onto the `impact_scale`), `confidence` (**derived**), `effort` (appetite in weeks). `score = round((reach × impact × confidence) / effort)`. - **WSJF** — cost-of-delay components (per the config scale), `job_size` (appetite in weeks). `score = cost_of_delay / job_size`. - **ICE** — `impact` (1–10), `confidence` (**derived**, 1–10), `ease` (1–10). `score = impact × confidence × ease`. Show the arithmetic for each bet — a score with no visible working is not reviewable. ### 4. Rank and present the table (checkpoint — nothing written yet) Sort by `score` descending (rank 1 = build first; ties broken by smaller appetite, then id). Present a table: **rank | id | title | framework inputs | score | evidence band | note**. Then **stop and ask the PO to confirm** before persisting. Completeness is not consent — no `priority:` block and no board is written until the PO says so. ### 5. The gut-band warning (warn, never block) Attach a ⚠️ to every row whose derived band is **gut (0–2)**: *"ranking on gut feel — this score rests on unvalidated confidence; collect evidence (verify/challenge the hypothesis, or gather supporting documentation) or proceed knowingly."* If **all** candidates are gut-band, lead with the warning: the ordering is honest about being a guess. Never refuse to rank — the PO may proceed knowingly. ### 6. Persist — only on the PO's explicit confirm On an explicit go-ahead ("write them", "persist the ranking", "confirmed"): - **On each scored hypothesis's frontmatter**, write the `priority:` block from [`assets/priority-block.md`](assets/priority-block.md) — `framework`, the inputs, the derived `confidence`, `score`, `scored_on: `, `rank`, and the `evidence_note`. This replaces the born-empty `priority: {}`. Bump `last_touched`. - **Regenerate `docs/discovery/priority.md`** wholesale from [`assets/priority-board.md`](assets/priority-board.md) — the derived rank board. It is generated, never hand-edited. - **Note progress via the `memory` skill's Log op** — what was ranked, and that the write happened — before proposing the next step; the writes are on disk first (assume interruption). ### 7. Report and hand back Print the ordered list, where the ranks were written, and the single next step: the top-ranked gate-ready bet → move it toward drafting a spec/PRD; a fresh ordering that changes what "now" vs "next" means → update whatever roadmap view the team keeps; any bet still on an unratified outcome → `define-outcomes` before it can be trusted in the order. **Never `git commit` or `git push`** — committing is a human-confirmed action. **Offer the ranking as a decision — when it is one.** This skill writes the score, never a decision row. Most orderings need none: the gate expects one only where the ranking clears `grill-decision`'s three-criteria test (hard to reverse, surprising, a real alternative rejected). A bet deliberately deferred behind another usually clears it; a routine re-sort does not, and `grill-decision` is required to refuse the row if it doesn't. When it clears, offer the DEC there before treating the item as satisfied. ## Rules - **Confidence is derived, never typed.** A `priority:` block whose `confidence` did not come from the hypothesis's `confidence:` block is a bug. No evidence class ⇒ unscoreable, not a free guess. - **`.agents/profile.md`'s `prioritization:` note owns the framework and the scales, when present.** This skill reads it; it never hardcodes a weight and never edits the profile. Absent a note, RICE with the documented defaults applies. - **Persist only on an explicit confirm.** Present the table first; write `priority:` frontmatter and the board only when the PO says to. - **Warn on gut, never block.** A gut-band bet is ranked *and* flagged; the PO decides whether to proceed. - **Every persisted score carries its `evidence_note`.** The derivation travels with the number. - **The board is derived.** `docs/discovery/priority.md` is regenerated wholesale; hand edits are lost on the next run. ## Pairs well with - **After** a verification/challenge or feasibility-review pass on a hypothesis: those raise a bet's confidence band, which *changes* its derived score — re-rank after evidence moves. - **`define-outcomes`** first for any bet still on an unratified outcome; **`opportunity-tree`** supplies opportunity scores that inform a bet's impact; **`intake-triage`** is where raw asks enter the pipeline, upstream of this skill; a later status/review pass can flag a `scored_on` that has gone stale, and a grooming pass can park the bets that keep ranking last. --- > Provenance: house-authored for this product (© Peter Petroczy); released under this product's MIT license. The prioritization-framework craft (RICE/WSJF/ICE selection, the shipped WSJF cost-of-delay model, the four-tier scale discipline) is adapted from phuryn/pm-skills@18468a95b427e70e258b51389796367c6f684e7d (MIT, © Pawel Huryn); the evidence-banded confidence system that the derived confidence factor consumes is adapted from shinpr/claude-code-discover (MIT). See NOTICE.md.