# Financial Modeling

> Build financial models — assumption documentation, revenue/cost drivers, scenario toggles, sensitivity tables, and model validation. TRIGGER when: user says /financial-modeling, needs to build a financial model, or asks about forecasting and scenario analysis.

- Skill: `ashutoshsrivastava17/financial-modeling` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add ashutoshsrivastava17/financial-modeling`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/ashutoshsrivastava17/financial-modeling/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: AI & ML
- Author: ashutoshsrivastava17 (https://skillmd.com/u/ashutoshsrivastava17)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/ashutoshsrivastava17/financial-modeling

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# Financial Modeling

## Process

### Step 1: Define Model Purpose
| Purpose | Type | Complexity |
|---------|------|-----------|
| Fundraising | 3-statement + projections | High |
| Project evaluation | DCF / NPV | Medium |
| Budget planning | Revenue + expense forecast | Medium |
| Scenario analysis | Toggle-based projections | Medium |

### Step 2: Document Assumptions
| Category | Assumption | Source | Sensitivity |
|----------|-----------|--------|------------|
| Revenue growth | X% YoY | Historical + market | High |
| Gross margin | X% | Last 4 quarters | Medium |
| CAC | $X | Last 12 months | High |
| Churn rate | X% monthly | Cohort analysis | High |

### Step 3: Build Revenue Model
| Driver | Formula | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|--------|---------|-----|-----|-----|
| New customers | Spend / CAC | X | X | X |
| Churned | Base × churn | X | X | X |
| Revenue | Customers × ARPU | $X | $X | $X |

### Step 4: Build Cost Model
| Category | Type | Driver | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|----------|------|--------|-----|-----|-----|
| COGS | Variable | Revenue × margin | $X | $X | $X |
| Engineering | Semi-fixed | Headcount × salary | $X | $X | $X |
| S&M | Variable | CAC × new | $X | $X | $X |

### Step 5: Add Scenarios
| Scenario | Growth | Churn | Burn Rate |
|----------|--------|-------|-----------|
| Bear | X% | X% | $X/mo |
| Base | X% | X% | $X/mo |
| Bull | X% | X% | $X/mo |

### Step 6: Validate
| Check | Method |
|-------|--------|
| Formula audit | Trace to source |
| Sense check | Match industry benchmarks |
| Stress test | Extreme inputs |
| Historical fit | Replicate actuals |

## Output Format
```markdown
## Model: [Name]
### Assumptions: [table]
### Projections: [3-5 year summary]
### Scenarios: [Bear/Base/Bull]
### Sensitivity: [key drivers]
```

## Quality Checklist
- [ ] Assumptions documented with sources
- [ ] Formulas reference assumptions (no hardcoded numbers)
- [ ] Scenarios toggleable
- [ ] Stress-tested
- [ ] Balance sheet balances (if applicable)

## Edge Cases
- For SaaS, model MRR/ARR with cohort-based churn
- For marketplaces, model both supply and demand sides
- For fundraising, include dilution impact