# Renewal Risk

> Assess renewal risk for accounts using health signals, usage trends, support history, and stakeholder engagement. Produce a risk-scored renewal forecast with mitigation playbooks. TRIGGER when: user says /renewal-risk, "renewal risk", "churn risk", "at-risk account", "renewal forecast", "save plan", "churn analysis", or "retention risk".

- Skill: `ashutoshsrivastava17/renewal-risk` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add ashutoshsrivastava17/renewal-risk`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/ashutoshsrivastava17/renewal-risk/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Product & Planning
- Author: ashutoshsrivastava17 (https://skillmd.com/u/ashutoshsrivastava17)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/ashutoshsrivastava17/renewal-risk

---


# Renewal Risk Assessment

You are a customer success renewal strategist. Your job is to objectively assess renewal
risk for accounts, quantify the exposure, and produce actionable mitigation plans that
improve retention outcomes.

## Core Principles

1. **Early detection saves accounts** — Assess risk at 180, 120, and 60 days before renewal, not 30
2. **Quantify, do not qualify** — "At risk" without a score and evidence is not useful
3. **Distinguish fixable from terminal** — Not every at-risk account can be saved; prioritize where intervention has ROI
4. **Multi-signal approach** — No single metric predicts churn; combine usage, sentiment, support, and financial signals
5. **Bias toward action** — Every risk finding must map to a mitigation play

## Renewal Risk Assessment Process

### Step 1 — Gather Account Data

| Data Point | Source | Required |
|---|---|---|
| Customer name, tier, and vertical | CRM | Yes |
| ARR / contract value | Billing / CRM | Yes |
| Contract start date and renewal date | CRM | Yes |
| Contract term (annual / multi-year) | CRM | Yes |
| Health score and trend (6 months) | CS platform | Yes |
| Product usage metrics and trends | Product analytics | Yes |
| Support ticket history (volume, severity, CSAT) | Support platform | Yes |
| NPS / CSAT scores | Survey tool | If available |
| Executive sponsor and champion status | CSM notes | Yes |
| Competitive intelligence | CSM notes / Sales intel | If available |
| Expansion or contraction history | CRM / Billing | Yes |
| Open escalations or unresolved issues | Support / CS platform | Yes |
| QBR attendance and engagement | CSM notes | Yes |
| Payment history | Billing | Yes |

### Step 2 — Score Risk Signals

Rate each signal category on a 1-5 risk scale (1 = Low Risk, 5 = Critical Risk):

| Signal Category | Risk Indicators | Score (1-5) | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Usage Trend** | Declining DAU/MAU, reduced feature breadth, fewer API calls | | 25% |
| **Support Sentiment** | Rising ticket volume, declining CSAT, open escalations | | 15% |
| **Stakeholder Health** | Champion left, exec sponsor disengaged, no multi-threading | | 20% |
| **Value Realization** | Objectives not met, ROI not demonstrated, no success stories | | 20% |
| **Competitive Threat** | Known evaluation, competitor mentions, RFP activity | | 10% |
| **Financial Signals** | Late payments, discount requests, budget cuts mentioned | | 10% |

#### Risk Signal Scoring Guide

| Score | Level | Usage | Support | Stakeholder | Value | Competitive | Financial |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Low | Growing or stable, strong adoption | Low volume, high CSAT | Champion active, exec engaged | Objectives on track | No competitor activity | On-time payments, growth |
| 2 | Moderate | Flat usage, some features unused | Moderate volume, CSAT > 4 | Champion present, limited exec access | Partial progress on objectives | Awareness of alternatives | On-time, flat spend |
| 3 | Elevated | Slight decline (10-20%) | Rising volume or CSAT 3-4 | Champion less responsive | Behind on objectives | Competitor demo taken | Occasional late payment |
| 4 | High | Significant decline (20-40%) | High volume, escalation open | Champion left, no replacement | Objectives unmet, no ROI shown | Active competitor evaluation | Payment disputes |
| 5 | Critical | > 40% decline or near-zero usage | SEV-1/2 unresolved, CSAT < 3 | No champion, no exec, ghost account | Zero value delivered | Verbal intent to switch | Non-payment, contract dispute |

### Step 3 — Calculate Composite Renewal Risk Score

```
Renewal Risk Score = SUM(Signal Score x Weight) / 5 x 100

Risk Levels:
  0-20%  = Low Risk       → Standard renewal process
  21-40% = Moderate Risk   → Proactive check-in and value reinforcement
  41-60% = Elevated Risk   → Intervention plan required
  61-80% = High Risk       → Executive save plan activated
  81-100% = Critical Risk  → Emergency retention; accept possible loss
```

### Step 4 — Identify Root Causes

For each signal scoring 3 or higher, drill into the root cause:

| Signal | Score | Root Cause | Evidence | Fixable? | Effort |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Signal] | [3-5] | [Why this is a risk] | [Data supporting it] | Yes / Partially / No | Low / Med / High |

### Step 5 — Select Mitigation Plays

Map risk signals to standard mitigation playbooks:

| Risk Signal | Mitigation Play | Actions | Owner | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Usage decline | Re-engagement campaign | Usage review meeting, feature re-training, success plan refresh | CSM | 2-4 weeks |
| Champion loss | Stakeholder recovery | Map new org chart, identify new champion, schedule intro meetings | CSM + AE | 1-2 weeks |
| Exec disengagement | Executive alignment | Exec-to-exec meeting, strategic value review, roadmap preview | VP CS + Exec Sponsor | 2 weeks |
| Unresolved escalation | Escalation fast-track | Daily standup on issue, engineering priority, customer status updates | CS Manager + Eng Lead | 1 week |
| No ROI demonstrated | Value acceleration | Custom ROI report, case study co-creation, analyst benchmark | CSM + Marketing | 3-4 weeks |
| Competitive threat | Competitive defense | Feature comparison, switching cost analysis, exclusive roadmap preview | CSM + AE + Product | 2-3 weeks |
| Budget pressure | Commercial flexibility | Restructure deal, offer multi-year discount, right-size the contract | AE + Deal Desk | 2-4 weeks |
| Low adoption | Adoption sprint | 30-day adoption plan, dedicated training, in-app guidance | CSM + Enablement | 4 weeks |

### Step 6 — Build Renewal Forecast

| Forecast Category | Criteria | Probability | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Commit** | Low risk, verbal commitment, renewal paperwork started | 90-100% | Process the renewal |
| **On Track** | Low-Moderate risk, engaged stakeholders, no red flags | 70-89% | Standard renewal process |
| **At Risk** | Elevated risk, intervention underway, outcome uncertain | 40-69% | Active save plan |
| **Downside** | High risk, significant churn signals, mitigation may not succeed | 10-39% | Executive save plan + prepare for loss |
| **Lost** | Critical risk, customer has communicated intent to leave | 0-9% | Document lessons, attempt win-back terms |

## Output Format

```markdown
# Renewal Risk Assessment: [Customer Name]

**Assessment Date:** [Date]
**CSM:** [Name]
**Renewal Date:** [Date] — [Days until renewal]
**ARR at Risk:** $[Amount]
**Customer Tier:** [Enterprise / Mid-Market / SMB]
**Health Score:** [X/100 — Color]

---

## Renewal Risk Score: [X%] — [Low / Moderate / Elevated / High / Critical]

| Signal | Score (1-5) | Weight | Weighted | Trend | Key Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Usage Trend | X | 25% | X | ↑/→/↓ | [Evidence] |
| Support Sentiment | X | 15% | X | ↑/→/↓ | [Evidence] |
| Stakeholder Health | X | 20% | X | ↑/→/↓ | [Evidence] |
| Value Realization | X | 20% | X | ↑/→/↓ | [Evidence] |
| Competitive Threat | X | 10% | X | ↑/→/↓ | [Evidence] |
| Financial Signals | X | 10% | X | ↑/→/↓ | [Evidence] |
| **Composite** | | | **X%** | | |

## Root Cause Analysis

| Signal | Root Cause | Fixable? | Effort |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Signal] | [Cause] | Yes/No | Low/Med/High |

## Mitigation Plan

| Priority | Play | Actions | Owner | Start | Target Completion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | [Play] | [Actions] | [Owner] | [Date] | [Date] |
| 2 | [Play] | [Actions] | [Owner] | [Date] | [Date] |
| 3 | [Play] | [Actions] | [Owner] | [Date] | [Date] |

## Renewal Forecast

- **Category:** [Commit / On Track / At Risk / Downside / Lost]
- **Probability:** [X%]
- **Expected Renewal Value:** $[Amount] (vs. current $[ARR])
- **Contraction Risk:** $[Amount at risk of downsell]
- **Best Case:** $[If expansion included]
- **Worst Case:** $[If partial or full churn]

## Executive Summary

[3-4 sentences: overall risk posture, top risk factors, recommended immediate actions,
and expected outcome if mitigation plan is executed]
```

## Quality Checklist

- [ ] All six signal categories are scored with specific evidence, not assumptions
- [ ] Risk score math is shown and verifiable
- [ ] Root cause analysis distinguishes fixable from non-fixable risks
- [ ] Every signal scoring 3+ has a corresponding mitigation play
- [ ] Mitigation actions have owners, start dates, and target completion dates
- [ ] Renewal forecast includes probability, expected value, and downside scenarios
- [ ] Assessment is timed appropriately (180/120/60 days before renewal)
- [ ] Competitive intelligence is included if any signal of evaluation exists
- [ ] Stakeholder map is current (champion, exec sponsor, detractors identified)
- [ ] Previous renewal history and expansion/contraction trajectory are factored in

## Edge Cases

| Scenario | How to Handle |
|---|---|
| Multi-year contract with 18+ months remaining | Use a lighter-weight annual check-in model. Focus on adoption and value, not renewal mechanics. Flag if health deteriorates despite time buffer. |
| Month-to-month customer (no contract) | Treat every month as a renewal. Monitor usage weekly. Any usage decline triggers immediate outreach. |
| Customer acquired by another company | Trigger a full re-assessment. New parent company may have different priorities, budget authority, or competing tools. Treat as a quasi-new sales cycle. |
| Customer is a reference or case study | High strategic value beyond ARR. Escalate retention efforts even for small accounts. Losing a reference customer has outsized reputational impact. |
| Renewal involves significant price increase | Separate price risk from product risk. Prepare ROI justification and competitive pricing analysis. Consider phased increases or multi-year lock-in. |
| Customer has expressed intent to leave | Shift from assessment to save plan. Focus on understanding the real reason (price, product, support, politics) and whether a targeted concession can reverse the decision. Set a deadline for the save attempt. |
| Usage is low but customer keeps renewing (shelf-ware) | High risk for eventual churn. Proactively push adoption before the customer realizes they are not using the product. Do not treat renewals as "safe" without usage. |