# Aeon Token Pick

> One token recommendation and one prediction-market pick per run — with falsifiable thesis, entry, sizing guidance, and an explicit kill criterion. Skip branch fires when no candidate has both a named/dated catalyst and asymmetric upside. The discipline is the skip branch — empirically the highest-EV output on flat days is no pick. Triggers: "what should I trade today", "give me a token pick", "prediction-market rec", "is there an asymmetric setup".

- Skill: `bankrbot/aeon-token-pick-2` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 2 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add bankrbot/aeon-token-pick-2`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/bankrbot/aeon-token-pick-2/raw
- Safety review: pending (external: skill-scanner PASS, skillspector PASS)
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: BankrBot (https://skillmd.com/u/bankrbot)
- Updated: 2026-09-21
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/bankrbot/aeon-token-pick-2

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# aeon-token-pick

At most one token pick and one prediction-market pick per run. Each pick must have:

- **Falsifiable thesis** — one sentence.
- **Entry** — price + venue.
- **Kill criterion** — the specific signal that says the thesis is wrong.
- **Sizing** — small / medium / large vs the operator's stack.
- **Time horizon** — hours / days / weeks.

If no candidate clears the bar — named, dated catalyst plus asymmetric setup — the skill returns `NO_PICK` with the top three near-misses and what would have tipped them over.

## Sample output

```
TOKEN: $XYZ — entry $0.42 on Base (Aerodrome WETH/XYZ pool)
Thesis: ProductHunt launch May 15 + commit-velocity surge signals real shipping
Kill: launch delayed past May 22 OR daily commits drop below 5 for 3 days
Sizing: medium · Horizon: 2-3 weeks

MARKET: NO on "EIGEN unlock delayed past Q2" @ 0.31
Thesis: on-chain timelock activity confirms unlock; delay risk overpriced
Kill: official delay announcement before market resolves
Sizing: small (binary) · Resolution: July 1
```

No-pick output:

```
NO_PICK — 2026-05-12

Top near-misses:
1. $XYZ — catalyst unclear, asymmetry weak (upside +30%, downside -50%)
2. NO on "EIGEN delayed past Q2" — mispriced but no dated resolution

Would tip the call: a dated catalyst on $XYZ; a specific committee date for EIGEN.
```

## Rules

- Falsifiable thesis or no pick.
- Cite the catalyst by name and date. "Sentiment turning" is not a catalyst.
- Crowdedness penalty — if every newsletter is recommending it, the asymmetry is gone.
- NO_PICK is a valid output. Manufactured picks burn capital.

Pairs naturally with `aeon-narrative-tracker` (narrative fit), `aeon-monitor-runners` (momentum candidates), `aeon-unlock-monitor` (supply-side risk), and Bankr Submit / AgenticBets for execution.