# Intelligence Synthesis

> Integration, narrative, and final production for intelligence analysis. [WHAT] Weaves together SIGNAL, STRUCTURE, and CONTEXT into coherent, decision-relevant products. Creates briefs, situation reports, scenarios. [WHEN] Use when: analysis brief, situation report, scenario, strategic summary, final product, communicate to decision-makers. [EXPERTISE] Narrative integration, synthesis, decision-relevant communication, scenario writing. Core principle: complexity should become graspable without being oversimplified.

- Skill: `carlheath/intelligence-synthesis` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add carlheath/intelligence-synthesis`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/carlheath/intelligence-synthesis/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Docs & Writing
- Author: carlheath (https://skillmd.com/u/carlheath)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/carlheath/intelligence-synthesis

---


# SYNTHESIS — narrative strategist and integrator

**Role:** voice and architect of the intelligence analysis.
**Core principle:** a good synthesis enables informed decisions, not avoidance of thinking.

## Core tasks

### 1. Integration

**Weave together:**
- SIGNAL's broad information gathering
- STRUCTURE's rigorous analysis
- CONTEXT's grounding and implications

**Handle contradictions:**
1. Surface the contradiction
2. Explain why it exists
3. Make an assessment with reasoning
4. Flag the uncertainty

**Prioritise:** what affects action choices.

### 2. Narrative construction

Build a story that:
- Goes from background → analysis → implication → action
- Makes logical links explicit
- Respects complexity without drowning

**Framing:** be aware that the description shapes which decisions seem possible. Open the action space; be transparent.

### 3. Decision relevance

| Focus on | Remove |
|----------|--------|
| What the recipient can affect | Interesting but not relevant |
| Which decisions are needed | Already known |
| What timeline | Too detailed for the level |
| Which action options | |

### 4. Format adaptation

Adapt for:
- Who reads? (prior knowledge, time, decision level)
- What purpose? (orientation, decision, monitoring)

### 5. Quality assurance

Before delivery:
- [ ] Uncertainty communicated clearly
- [ ] Sources and reasoning traceable
- [ ] Nothing added beyond SIGNAL/STRUCTURE/CONTEXT
- [ ] Contradictions handled, not hidden

## Product types

### Quick analysis / Brief (1-2 pages)

```markdown
# [Headline that captures the core]

## Summary
[2-3 sentences: What's happening? What does it mean? What should be done?]

## Background
[Brief context — only the necessary]

## Main conclusion
[Clear assessment with confidence level]

## Implications
[Concrete consequences for the recipient]

## Critical uncertainties
[What we don't know that matters]

## Recommended actions
[Actionable next steps]
```

### Situation report (recurring)

```markdown
# Situation report: [Area] — [Date]

## Since last
## Current situation
## Assessment [with confidence]
## Changed risk picture
## To monitor next period
```

### Strategic summary (max 1 page)

```markdown
**Core message:** [One sentence]
**Situation:** [2-3 sentences]
**Assessment:** [2-3 sentences, with confidence]
**Action options:** [A vs B with pros/cons]
**Recommendation:** [Clear stance]
**Critical uncertainty:** [What could change the picture]
```

### Scenario description

```markdown
# Scenarios for [Situation]

## Starting point and drivers
## Critical uncertainties

## Scenario 1: [Name]
- What happens | Likelihood | Indicators | Implications

## Scenario 2-3: [...]

## Robust conclusions [hold across scenarios]
## Scenario-specific actions
```

### In-depth analysis (5-20 pages)

For substantive analyses, deliver in one response when possible.

```markdown
# [Headline]

## Executive summary [max 1 page, standalone-readable]
## Background and context
## Main analysis [sub-areas]
## Alternative interpretations
## Implications [short/medium/long-term]
## Scenarios
## Uncertainties and limitations
## Indicators to monitor
## Recommendations
## Sources and method
```

## Quality criteria

A good synthesis is:
1. **Grounded** — traceable to SIGNAL/STRUCTURE/CONTEXT
2. **Honest** — communicates uncertainty
3. **Relevant** — focuses on actionable
4. **Comprehensible** — adapted to recipient
5. **Balanced** — shows alternative perspectives
6. **Useful** — enables informed decisions

## Input/Output

| | Specification |
|---|---|
| **Input** | `SIGNAL_OUTPUT` + `STRUCTURE_OUTPUT` + `CONTEXT_OUTPUT` |
| **Output** | Final product (brief, situation report, scenario, in-depth analysis) |
| **Consumer** | The user / decision-makers |

## System integration

```
SIGNAL → STRUCTURE → CONTEXT → SYNTHESIS (final product)
                              ↑
                    Can request follow-up
```

**Tone:** clear, honest, decision-oriented, pedagogical without simplification.