# Outreach Spend Forecaster > Forecast and govern connection spend for a brand→creator outreach campaign — price reaching N creators at 10 credits each ($0.025/credit), check it against a budget/threshold, net out who's already in-flight, hold a running ledger as connections fire, and emit a per-campaign chargeback log. Use when the user says "how much will this outreach cost", "forecast my connection spend", "set an outreach budget", "don't go over N credits on outreach", or "chargeback log for this campaign". Meta-skill, 0 data credits — it accounts for spend, it doesn't reach creators. - Skill: `creatorland/outreach-spend-forecaster` (Agent Skill) - Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add creatorland/outreach-spend-forecaster` - Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/creatorland/outreach-spend-forecaster/raw - Safety review: pending - Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex - Category: Marketing & Growth - Author: creatorland (https://skillmd.com/u/creatorland) - Updated: 2026-09-21 - Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/creatorland/outreach-spend-forecaster --- # Outreach Spend Forecaster A meta-skill that plans and governs the **connection spend** other skills incur. It makes **no paid data calls** of its own — no `search_creators`, `get_creator_profile`, `query_market_intelligence`, and crucially **no `request_creator_connection`**. It only forecasts, budgets, and accounts for the 10-credit-per-creator outreach that cast-and-connect / conflict-safe-connect actually fire. Its single free tool is `list_connections`, used to count in-flight outreach so the user never double-spends on a creator already in a sequence. The deliverable is a forecast block up front, a running ledger during a firing session, and — on request — a per-campaign chargeback log for finance. This is the connection/campaign-specific sibling of **credit-budget-guardian** (which prices general session spend across all skills). Reach for this one when the spend in question is *outreach* — reaching creators — and the unit is a campaign with a named label and a head-count. Read first: ${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/shared/conventions.md (tool schemas, the credit price index, the nine conventions), ${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/shared/connection-flow.md (the connection cost model — 10 credits per creator for the **whole** 3-touch sequence, free `list_connections`/`get_connection_status`, entitlement gating and graceful degradation, suppression pre-screen), and ${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/shared/credit-modes.md (the estimation + logging convention). ## Inputs to collect - **Planned reach** (required) — either a number **N** of creators to reach, or a named in-session list/shortlist/longlist already produced this session (e.g. "the 12 from the Acme shortlist"). If a named list, count its rows for N; never re-run a paid search to get the count. - **Campaign label** (required for the chargeback log; recommended always) — client/campaign name the spend books against, e.g. "Acme Q3 launch". - **Budget / threshold** (optional) — a credit or dollar ceiling for the campaign, and/or a "warn before any batch crosses N credits" guard line. If a dollar figure is given, convert at $0.025/credit. - **Mode** — this skill is pure accounting; thrifty/thorough don't change its 0 data-credit cost. Honor them only by reporting how the *underlying* outreach shape changes the forecast (fewer creators reached = fewer credits). Never ask for anything the session already has (the list, the count, the label). ## The connection price index (ground truth — from conventions.md / connection-flow.md) | Action | Credits | $ @ $0.025/cr | |---|---:|---:| | `request_creator_connection` (one charge per creator, whole 3-touch sequence) | 10 | $0.25 | | reaching **N** creators | 10×N | $0.025×10×N | | `list_connections` / `get_connection_status` | free | $0 | A creator already in an **active sequence for this brand** is refused and **NOT charged** on a repeat request — so they must be netted *out* of a forecast, not counted. See `${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/shared/conventions.md` for the current Pro grant and pack pricing. ## Flow This skill orchestrates accounting, not outreach. It fires exactly one (free) tool. 1. **Establish N.** From the planned number or by counting rows in the named in-session list. State it back. 2. **Net out in-flight (free).** Call `list_connections` `{ limit: 100 }` (optionally `{ status: "queued" | "sending" | "delivered" }` to scope to still-active touches). Count how many of the planned creators — or, when reaching a fresh list, how many active outreaches already exist for this brand — would collide. These are **already paid for** and would be refused on a repeat, so the *net new* reach is `N − already_in_flight`. `list_connections` returns no contact info; only `conn_ref` + status + campaign type + next touch. Treat it as count/status data, never PII. 3. **Forecast.** Compute `gross = 10×N` and `net = 10×(N − already_in_flight)` credits, and the dollar cost of each at $0.025/credit. Show the arithmetic. 4. **Budget check.** If a cap was set, compare the **net** forecast to it. Under → green-light. Over → say by how much, and the head-count that fits the budget (`floor(budget_credits / 10)` creators) so the user can trim the list. Only recommend proceeding past the cap on explicit confirmation — this skill does not fire connections, so "proceeding" means handing a sized list to cast-and-connect / conflict-safe-connect, which run their own mandatory pre-flight confirm. 5. **Threshold gate.** If a "warn before crossing N credits" guard was set, note where in a batched roll-out the cumulative spend would cross it (e.g. "credits cross your 200-credit line at creator #21"). 6. **Guard during firing (running ledger).** As the actual outreach skill fires batches (or as the user reports what fired), append each batch to the ledger: creators reached, credits spent (10 each, minus any refused-not-charged), remaining budget. **Warn before** a batch would cross the threshold or the cap — surface it and wait, rather than reconciling after the spend. 7. **Report.** Emit the per-campaign chargeback log on request or at campaign end. If the harness exposes a durable workspace, persist the ledger there so it survives the engagement; otherwise hold it in session and say it's session-scoped. ## Graceful degradation (entitlement) If the plan isn't entitled to `creator_connections`, the *actual* outreach skills return a refused envelope rather than reaching. This forecaster still runs in full: it forecasts what the campaign **would** cost if connections were enabled, shows the budget math, and appends a one-line note — _"Connections aren't on your plan; this is the projected cost. Upgrade to pro/pilot to fire it."_ It never dead-ends; a forecast is useful pre-purchase. `list_connections` may itself come back empty/refused on a non-entitled plan — treat in-flight count as 0 and say so. ## Deliverable Three artifacts depending on the ask. **Forecast block (up front):** ```markdown ## Outreach forecast — | Line | Count | Credits | $ | |---|---:|---:|---:| | Planned reach (N) | | <10×N> | <$0.025×10×N> | | Already in-flight (free / not re-charged) | | 0 | $0 | | **Net new reach** | **** | **<10×(N−k)>** | **<$>** | Budget cap: . Status: cr — creators fit>. Cumulative spend crosses your -credit guard at creator #. Connections aren't on your plan — projected cost shown; upgrade to fire. This forecaster's own cost: 0 credits (1 free list_connections call). ``` **Running ledger (during a firing session):** ```markdown ## Outreach ledger — · | Batch | Creators reached | Credits | $ | Cumulative cr | Remaining budget | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 1 | 8 | 80 | $2.00 | 80 | 120 | | 2 | 4 (1 already-active, not charged) | 30 | $0.75 | 110 | 90 | | | **Reached: 11** | **110** | **$2.75** | | | Next batch of would cross your -credit guard — confirm before firing. ``` **Per-campaign chargeback log (for finance):** ```markdown ## Outreach chargeback — | Campaign | Creators reached | Credits | $ @ $0.025 | Date | |---|---:|---:|---:|---| |