# Synergy Stress Test

> This skill should be used when the user asks to "stress-test these synergies," "is this deal's synergy case realistic," or has a deal or partnership's projected synergies that need cost/revenue separation, evidence checks, and a base-rate haircut.

- Skill: `daddia/synergy-stress-test` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add daddia/synergy-stress-test`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/daddia/synergy-stress-test/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Finance & Business
- Author: daddia (https://skillmd.com/u/daddia)
- Updated: 2026-09-22
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/daddia/synergy-stress-test

---

# Synergy Stress Test

## When to use

Stress-test deal synergies — separate cost vs revenue, grade evidence, apply haircuts, bar-test deal economics. Revenue synergies must not borrow credibility from cost lines.

## What this skill does not do

- **Does not blend cost and revenue lines.**
- **Does not invent deal economics** — INPUT NEEDED for price/hurdle.
- **Does not approve deal** — recommendation on adjusted case.
- **Does not skip mechanism check on revenue.**

## Preconditions

| Input | If missing |
|---|---|
| Synergy line items | Ask user or deck |
| Profile synergy haircut / track record | Use default base-rate table; cite source |
| Purchase price / hurdle for bar test | INPUT NEEDED — no fabricated IRR |

## Provisional mode

Default haircuts tagged `[unverified — industry pattern]` unless profile has org track record.

## Trust spine

- **Analytical Rigor (mandatory):** Per-line tier, haircut arithmetic, double-count scan.
- Per trust-conventions; GATE before board finals.

## Base-rate anchor

| Type | Typical realization |
|---|---|
| Cost strong evidence | ~70–90% |
| Cost weak | ~40–60% |
| Revenue any tier | ~20–40% |

Use profile overrides when configured.

## Workflow

1. Separate every line: cost vs revenue.
2. Grade evidence per line; state tier, haircut %, adjusted value. Connector-sourced figures (`~~bi analytics`, `~~crm`, `~~spreadsheet`) require `[sourced: <connector>, <asset>, <as-of>]` on each load-bearing number; otherwise use `INPUT NEEDED`.
3. Revenue mechanism check — missing mechanism → Weak.
4. Double-counting scan.
5. Recompute totals; bar test at adjusted number.

## Output format

```
CONFIDENCE: [...]
COST SYNERGIES: [table]
REVENUE SYNERGIES: [table]
DOUBLE-COUNTING FLAGS: [...]
TOTALS: [...]
DEAL BAR TEST: [...]
RECOMMENDATION: [...]
```

## Worked example

**Input:** $30M cost synergy (generic 10% G&A) + $50M revenue cross-sell (no mechanism).

**Excerpt:** Cost weak → ~50% haircut; revenue Weak → ~80% haircut; only works at optimistic number — material finding.

## Quality checks before delivering

- [ ] No blended lines
- [ ] Every line tier + arithmetic
- [ ] Revenue without mechanism = Weak
- [ ] Double-count scan done
- [ ] Bar test plain if optimistic-only

## Propose profile update

When a stable convention surfaces during this run (thresholds, naming, tone, output format, or recurring corrections), **propose a profile update**: show the exact diff against `~/.claude/plugins/config/claude-for-strategy/corporate-strategy/CLAUDE.md` (org-wide facts go to `org-profile.md`), ask for confirmation, and write only on yes. Only `/corporate-strategy:practice-setup` auto-applies a full profile write.

## Outputs

Follows plugin `CLAUDE.md` § Outputs. Next: renegotiate, `evaluate-strategic-option`, or IC with cost-only case.