# Causal Analysis

> Identifies root causes and causal relationships using Five Whys, Cause-and-Effect Diagrams, and Counterfactual Reasoning.

- Skill: `felipecustodio/causal-analysis` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 3 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add felipecustodio/causal-analysis`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/felipecustodio/causal-analysis/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- License: MIT
- Author: felipecustodio (https://skillmd.com/u/felipecustodio)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/felipecustodio/causal-analysis

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## Overview & Purpose

Causal Analysis moves beyond superficial symptoms to isolate underlying root causes. It distinguishes between correlation and causation, helping agents prevent recurring failures by addressing foundational systemic issues.

## When to Use

- **Incident Post-Mortems**: Diagnosing production outages or major system bugs.
- **System Failure Diagnosis**: Distinguishing root causes from surface-level errors.
- **Policy & Process Improvements**: Understanding downstream effects of structural changes.

## Execution Workflow

1. **Symptom Mapping**: State the observed failure clearly.
2. **The 5 Whys Traversal**: Iteratively ask "Why did this occur?" down 5 levels of causality.
3. **Counterfactual Test**: Verify causality by asking: "If cause X was absent, would outcome Y still have occurred?".
4. **Root Cause Identification**: Isolate the foundational driver.
5. **Preventative Action**: Define corrective controls targeted directly at the root cause.

## Expected Output Contract

```markdown
### Causal Analysis Summary
- **Observed Symptom**: [Surface error]
- **Causal Chain (5 Whys)**:
  1. Why? -> [Direct Cause]
  2. Why? -> [Sub Cause]
  ...
  5. Why? -> [Root Cause]
- **Root Cause**: [Core Issue]
- **Preventative Action**: [Structural Fix]
```

## Scripts

- `scripts/causal_analysis.py` - Deterministic evaluation, state validation, and CLI tool for causal-analysis.