# Decision Matrix

> A structured reasoning assistant that helps you make clear, confident decisions using proven frameworks — Pros/Cons, Decision Matrix (Pugh Matrix), Weighted Scoring, Pre-mortem, and Opportunity Cost Analysis.

- Skill: `gabrielmoreira/decision-matrix` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add gabrielmoreira/decision-matrix`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/gabrielmoreira/decision-matrix/raw
- Safety review: pending (external: skill-scanner PASS, skillspector PASS)
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: AI & ML
- Author: gabrielmoreira (https://skillmd.com/u/gabrielmoreira)
- Updated: 2026-09-09
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/gabrielmoreira/decision-matrix

---


# Decision Matrix

## What It Does

Takes the guesswork out of tough decisions by applying structured frameworks. Instead of spinning in circles with pros/cons lists, you get a repeatable system for comparing options, weighting what matters, and reaching a conclusion you can explain and defend.

---

## Frameworks Available

### 1. Classic Pros & Cons (Benjamin Franklin Method)

**Best for**: Quick decisions with low-to-moderate stakes

| Step | Action |
|------|--------|
| 1 | Draw two columns: PROS and CONS |
| 2 | List every reason for and against — no filtering |
| 3 | **Weigh** each item (not all pros are equal). Assign +1 to +5 for pros, -1 to -5 for cons |
| 4 | Sum the scores. A net positive suggests "yes." Consider emotional weight too |

**Guardrail**: Pros/cons alone miss hidden assumptions. Always follow with: "What am I not considering?"

### 2. Weighted Decision Matrix (Pugh Matrix)

**Best for**: Comparing multiple options against multiple criteria

```
| Criteria               | Weight (1-5) | Option A | Option B | Option C |
|------------------------|-------------|----------|----------|----------|
| Cost                   |      4      |   8/10   |   6/10   |   9/10   |
| Time to Market         |      3      |   7/10   |   9/10   |   5/10   |
| Strategic Fit          |      5      |   9/10   |   4/10   |   7/10   |
| Team Capacity          |      2      |   6/10   |   8/10   |   4/10   |
| **Weighted Total**     |             |   113    |   92     |   103    |
```

**Steps**:
1. List all viable options (rows)
2. Define criteria that matter (columns)
3. Assign a weight (1-5) to each criterion based on importance
4. Score each option per criterion (1-10)
5. Multiply score × weight, sum across criteria
6. Highest weighted total wins — but sanity-check the result

### 3. Pre-Mortem

**Best for**: High-stakes decisions where risk mitigation is critical

> "It's 12 months from now and our decision has failed spectacularly. How did it happen?"

| Step | Technique |
|------|-----------|
| 1 | Assume the decision was made and led to disaster |
| 2 | Fast-forward and write the "post-mortem" — what went wrong? |
| 3 | Generate 5-10 plausible failure modes |
| 4 | For each failure, ask: "What could prevent this?" |
| 5 | Incorporate those safeguards into the decision |

**Why it works**: Humans are loss-averse. Imagining failure activates risk-awareness that simple pros/cons don't reach.

### 4. Opportunity Cost Frame

**Best for**: Deciding between two good options (where saying yes to A means saying no to B)

| Frame | Question |
|-------|----------|
| **Cost of yes** | What do I give up by choosing this? |
| **Cost of no** | What do I give up by not choosing this? |
| **Regret test** | If I look back in 5 years, which "no" would I regret more? |
| **Opportunity comparison** | If Option A didn't exist, would I choose Option B? |

**Heuristic**: If saying "no" to Option A doesn't feel like a loss, don't choose it.

### 5. ICE Score (Impact, Confidence, Ease)

**Best for**: Prioritizing many options quickly (features, ideas, experiments)

| Criterion | Scale | Question |
|-----------|-------|----------|
| **Impact** | 1-10 | How significant will the result be if successful? |
| **Confidence** | 1-10 | How sure are we about the expected outcome? |
| **Ease** | 1-10 | How easy/simple is this to execute? |

**Formula**: `ICE Score = Impact × Confidence × Ease`

Sort by score. Work on the highest first. Re-score when new data emerges.

### 6. The 10/10/10 Rule

**Best for**: Emotional or high-stakes personal decisions

| Time Horizon | Question |
|-------------|----------|
| 10 minutes | How will I feel about this decision in 10 minutes? |
| 10 months | How will I feel about it in 10 months? |
| 10 years | How will I feel about it in 10 years? |

**Purpose**: Shifts perspective from short-term emotion to long-term impact. If all three horizons align — it's an easy call. If they conflict, the 10-year horizon should usually win.

---

## Trigger Phrases

| Phrase | Action |
|--------|--------|
| "Help me decide between..." | Starts a structured comparison of options |
| "Pros and cons of..." | Generates a weighted pros/cons table |
| "Should I [X] or [Y]?" | Runs a decision matrix or opportunity cost analysis |
| "What am I not considering?" | Surfaces blind spots and hidden assumptions |
| "Run a pre-mortem on..." | Scenarios worst-case outcomes to de-risk the decision |
| "Prioritize these for me..." | Uses ICE or weighted scoring to rank options |
| "Help me think this through..." | Combines frameworks layered for clarity |

---

## Step-by-Step Instructions

### Step 1: Define the Decision Clearly

A fuzzy question gets a fuzzy answer. Be specific:

- ❌ "Should I change jobs?"
- ✅ "Should I accept the offer at Company X ($120k, hybrid, startup) or stay at my current role ($110k, remote, corporate)?"

### Step 2: Identify the Decision Type

| Decision Type | Recommended Framework |
|---------------|---------------------|
| Low stakes, 2 options | Pros & Cons (weighted) |
| Multiple options, many criteria | Weighted Decision Matrix |
| High risk, irreversible | Pre-mortem |
| Scarcity (time/money focus) | Opportunity Cost Frame |
| Prioritizing a long list | ICE Score |
| Emotional/personal | 10/10/10 Rule |

### Step 3: Collect the Data

Gather:
- All realistic options (at least 2, rarely more than 5)
- All relevant criteria
- Objective data where possible (numbers, dates, facts)
- Subjective preferences (gut feel, values, identity)

### Step 4: Apply the Framework

Run the framework step by step. Document scores, weights, and reasoning.

### Step 5: Check for Bias

| Bias | Mitigation |
|------|-----------|
| **Confirmation bias** | Actively list reasons *against* your preferred option first |
| **Recency bias** | Consider decisions from 6+ months ago — does this feel different? |
| **Sunk cost** | "If I had no prior investment in this, would I still choose it?" |
| **Status quo bias** | "If this weren't the default, would I pick it?" |

### Step 6: Decide and Commit

- If the data is clear → decide.
- If it's close (within 10% in weighted scoring) → go with gut feel or the more reversible option.
- Write down the decision and your reasoning — future you will thank you.

### Step 7: Review the Outcome

After the decision plays out, revisit your framework. Did your weights reflect reality? Did you miss a criterion? Retrospect improves future decisions.

---

## Examples

### Example 1: Freelancer Deciding Between Two Clients

> **Input**: "Should I take Client A ($5k, urgent, boring) or Client B ($3k, flexible, exciting project)?"
>
> **Process**: Weighted Decision Matrix
>
> | Criteria | Weight | Client A | Client B |
> |----------|--------|----------|----------|
> | Income | 4 | 9 (36) | 5 (20) |
> | Enjoyment | 3 | 3 (9) | 9 (27) |
> | Time Pressure | 2 | 3 (6) | 9 (18) |
> | Portfolio Value | 4 | 4 (16) | 9 (36) |
> | **Total** | | **67** | **101** |
>
> **Result**: Client B wins despite lower pay, because portfolio value and enjoyment outweigh the income gap.

### Example 2: Solopreneur — "Should I Build Feature X?"

> **Input**: "Should I prioritize building a mobile app or improving onboarding?"
>
> **Process**: ICE + Pre-mortem
>
> ICE:
> - Mobile App: Impact 8, Confidence 4, Ease 2 → ICE = 64
> - Onboarding: Impact 6, Confidence 8, Ease 8 → ICE = 384
>
> Pre-mortem on mobile app decision: "We built the app but no one used it because onboarding was broken." → Clear signal to fix onboarding first.

---

## Pro Tips

- **Weight matters more than scores**: Most people fight over scores (7 vs 8). Weights determine the real outcome. Spend time getting weights right.
- **Add a "must-have" filter**: Before any matrix, define non-negotiables. If an option fails a must-have, eliminate it immediately.
- **The 80% rule**: If you have 80% of the information you could possibly get, decide. Waiting for perfect information is a decision too — usually the wrong one.
- **Revisit, don't regret**: Write down why you decided. When doubt creeps in, re-read your reasoning. Trust past-you's process.
- **Some decisions are reversible**: Jeff Bezos calls these "Type 2 decisions." If you can reverse it cheaply, don't over-analyze. Make the call fast.