# Idea Validator > A structured idea testing framework that runs every concept through a reality checklist before you invest time, money, or energy. Combines lean validation, customer discovery, and risk analysis into a single process for solopreneurs, creators, and innovators. - Skill: `gabrielmoreira/idea-validator` (Agent Skill) - Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add gabrielmoreira/idea-validator` - Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/gabrielmoreira/idea-validator/raw - Safety review: pending (external: skill-scanner PASS, skillspector PASS) - Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex - Category: Product & Planning - Author: gabrielmoreira (https://skillmd.com/u/gabrielmoreira) - Updated: 2026-09-09 - Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/gabrielmoreira/idea-validator --- # Idea Validator ## What It Does Turns raw ideas into testable hypotheses. Instead of falling in love with an idea and building it in a vacuum, this skill runs it through a validation gauntlet — surfacing assumptions, identifying risks, and designing the smallest possible test to learn whether the idea has legs before you commit significant resources. --- ## The Validation Funnel ``` ┌─────────────┐ │ RAW IDEA │ └──────┬──────┘ │ ┌──────▼──────┐ │ CANVAS IT │ ← Problem, Solution, Audience, Channel └──────┬──────┘ │ ┌──────▼──────┐ │ CHECKLIST │ ← 20-point viability screen └──────┬──────┘ │ ┌──────▼──────┐ │ RISK MAP │ ← What could kill this? └──────┬──────┘ │ ┌──────▼──────┐ │ TEST DESIGN │ ← Smallest experiment that teaches most └──────┬──────┘ │ ┌──────▼──────┐ │ GO / PIVOT │ │ / KILL │ └─────────────┘ ``` --- ## The 20-Point Validation Checklist Rate each factor as ✅ Strong / ⚠️ Moderate / ❌ Weak ### Problem & Need - [ ] **1. Is this a real problem?** Not a "nice to have" — would people pay to solve it? - [ ] **2. Is the problem widespread?** Does enough of your target audience have it? - [ ] **3. Is the problem urgent?** Are people actively searching for solutions right now? - [ ] **4. Are people already trying to solve it?** What workarounds exist? - [ ] **5. Is the problem getting worse?** Trend tailwinds? ### Solution & Product - [ ] **6. Can you solve this better than existing alternatives?** 2-10× better? - [ ] **7. Is there a clear "must-have" feature set?** Or is the scope fuzzy? - [ ] **8. Can you build a minimum version in < 4 weeks?** Speed to test matters - [ ] **9. Does the solution have a clear "why now?"** Timing advantage? - [ ] **10. Is it legally/ethically clear?** Any regulatory risks? ### Market & Audience - [ ] **11. Can you name 20 real people who would buy this?** Not "people like that" - [ ] **12. Is there a clear, reachable channel to find them?** SEO, ads, communities? - [ ] **13. Is the market growing?** Expanding, flat, or shrinking? - [ ] **14. Is the market big enough?** Can it support a sustainable business? - [ ] **15. Is the competition healthy (not too crowded, not nonexistent)?** No competition usually means no market ### Business & You - [ ] **16. Can this be profitable?** Rough unit economics work? - [ ] **17. Do you have unfair advantage?** Why can't 10 others copy this tomorrow? - [ ] **18. Will this be personally sustainable?** Do you actually want to work on this for years? - [ ] **19. Can you test this without quitting your day job?** Low-risk validation path? - [ ] **20. If this fails, what's the downside?** Acceptable loss? **Score interpretation**: | Score | Action | |-------|--------| | 18-20 ✅ | Strong signal — proceed to test design | | 12-17 ⚠️ | Mixed — address weak areas before investing | | < 12 ❌ | High risk — kill or radically pivot | --- ## Risk Map: The 5 Ways Ideas Die | Risk | Description | Mitigation | |------|-------------|------------| | **Solution Risk** | You build the wrong thing | Talk to 10 customers before writing code | | **Market Risk** | Nobody wants it | Get pre-orders or sign-ups before building | | **Execution Risk** | You can't deliver | Audit your skills, time, and resources | | **Timing Risk** | Too early or too late | Check search trends, competitor launches, industry shifts | | **Business Risk** | Can't make money | Validate willingness to pay early — don't assume | --- ## Lean Validation Experiments ### Tier 1: Low Effort (Days) | Experiment | What It Tests | How To Run | Success Signal | |-----------|---------------|------------|----------------| | **The Fake Door** | Interest | Landing page with "Coming Soon" + email signup | 5-10% conversion from visitors → email | | **The $5 Interview** | Problem | Talk to 10 target customers about their pain | 7/10 confirm it's a real problem | | **Social Post** | Demand | Post about the problem on LinkedIn/Reddit/Twitter | Engagement, DMs, "I need this" comments | | **Google Trends** | Market trajectory | Check trend direction for related keywords | Upward or stable curve | ### Tier 2: Medium Effort (Weeks) | Experiment | What It Tests | How To Run | Success Signal | |-----------|---------------|------------|----------------| | **Pre-sell / Landing Page** | Willingness to pay | Landing page with "Buy Now" (actually collect payment or just gauge intent) | 1-3% conversion rate or 10+ pre-orders | | **Concierge MVP** | Solution validity | Manually deliver the service for 3-5 beta customers | Customers get value and would pay | | **Waitlist** | Demand volume | Collect email signups with a specific promise | 100+ signups from targeted outreach | | **Content Test** | Content-driven demand | Write 3 articles about the problem. Track SEO/social traction | Organic traffic, subscribers, inquiries | ### Tier 3: Higher Effort (Months) | Experiment | What It Tests | How To Run | Success Signal | |-----------|---------------|------------|----------------| | **Prototype MVP** | Product usability | Build the smallest functional version for 10 beta users | NPS > 30, weekly active usage > 3× | | **Paid Pilot** | Willingness to pay at full price | Sell to 1-3 customers at full price | Customers pay and don't churn | | **Crowdfunding / Pre-order** | Market validation at scale | Kickstarter, Indiegogo, or direct pre-orders | Hits 30% of funding target in first week | --- ## Trigger Phrases | Phrase | Action | |--------|--------| | "Validate this idea..." | Full validation funnel: canvas → checklist → risk map → test | | "Is this worth pursuing?" | Runs the 20-point checklist | | "Test this idea..." | Designs the smallest meaningful experiment | | "What could kill this idea?" | Risk map — identifies top 3 failure modes | | "Should I build this?" | Pre-validation reality check | | "Talk me out of this idea" | Devil's advocate — surfaces weakest assumptions | | "How do I validate [X]?" | Specific experiment design for a specific risk | | "Is this a good idea?" | Combined checklist + risk map + recommendation | --- ## Step-by-Step Instructions ### Step 1: Clarify the Idea Get it into a single sentence: > "I want to build **[solution]** for **[audience]** who struggle with **[problem]**, so they can **[outcome]**." If you can't complete this sentence, the idea isn't clear enough yet. ### Step 2: Surface Assumptions List everything you're assuming to be true. Group into: | Assumption Type | Examples | |-----------------|----------| | **Problem** | "People actually have this problem." "They know they have it." | | **Solution** | "My solution solves it." "They'll use it." | | **Market** | "There are enough people." "I can reach them." | | **Business** | "They'll pay." "The economics work." | | **You** | "I can build this." "I'll stay motivated." | **Key insight**: The assumption that would hurt most if wrong is your **riskiest assumption**. Test that one first. ### Step 3: Run the Checklist Score all 20 items. Identify which areas score lowest — those are your focus areas for testing. ### Step 4: Design the Experiment Follow the experiment tier table above. Rules: - **Smallest test first**: Start with Tier 1. Don't build anything until you've talked to customers. - **Define success criteria upfront**: "I want 20 email signups from a $50 ad spend" — not "let's see what happens." - **Time-box**: 1-2 weeks per test. If you can't get a signal in 2 weeks, the signal might be "no." ### Step 5: Run, Measure, Decide | Result | Decision | |--------|----------| | Strong positive signal | Proceed to next tier of testing | | Mixed / unclear | Revise assumption, test again with a different method | | Clear negative signal | Kill or pivot. Do not ignore. Sunk cost is not a reason to continue | ### Step 6: Document Learnings Even for ideas you kill, document what you learned. Future you will benefit from knowing: - Which assumptions were wrong - What customers actually said - What the market signals showed --- ## Examples ### Example 1: Validating a Paid Newsletter Idea > **Idea**: "A paid newsletter teaching designers how to use AI tools" > > **Clarified**: "I want to build a **paid weekly newsletter** for **mid-career designers** who struggle with **keeping up with AI tools**, so they can **stay relevant without spending hours researching**." > > **Riskiest Assumptions**: 1) Designers are willing to pay for this. 2) I can consistently find valuable content. > > **Experiment (Tier 1)**: > 1. Post on LinkedIn/X: "Designers — what's your #1 question about AI tools?" (tests problem) > 2. If engagement is strong → create a free 5-email mini-series with a "Subscribe for full version" CTA (tests willingness to pay) > 3. Success signal: 1,000 free subscribers within 2 weeks > > **If < 100 signups**: Problem not urgent enough or audience not reachable. Kill or narrow niche further. > **If 100-500**: Interesting but weak. Try paid ads to test willingness to pay more directly. > **If 500+**: Proceed. Build the paid tier. ### Example 2: Validating a SaaS Tool > **Idea**: "A tool that auto-generates social media posts from blog content" > > **Risk Map**: > - **Solution Risk** (HIGH): Will the output be good enough to use without heavy editing? > - **Market Risk** (MEDIUM): Do content creators feel this pain enough to pay? > - **Execution Risk** (LOW): Buildable with existing AI APIs > > **Experiment (Tier 1)**: > 1. Build a manual concierge: Offer to take 5 bloggers' posts and manually create their social content for free > 2. Ask: "If this were automated, what would you pay?" > 3. Success signal: 3/5 say "I'd pay $20+/month" > > **Learning**: If users love the output but won't pay, pivot to free + ads. If they won't use the output even for free, solution risk is confirmed — kill or redesign. --- ## Pro Tips - **Validation is not about proving you're right** — it's about learning the truth as cheaply as possible. If you're trying to prove your idea works, you're doing it wrong. - **Nobody cares about your idea as much as you do**. The first 10 conversations will be polite. Push past politeness — ask "Would you pay for this?" directly. If they hesitate, that's data. - **A "maybe" is a "no"**. In validation, ambiguous responses usually mean no. People who really want something will show clear enthusiasm. - **Kill early, kill often**. The best entrepreneurs don't have the best ideas — they kill bad ideas fastest. A dead idea is tuition paid for the next one. - **Validation never ends**. Even after launch, every feature, pricing change, and channel is a new hypothesis to test. Build validation into your workflow, not as a one-time event.