# Variance Commentary

> Explain variance between actuals, targets, forecasts, plans, prior periods, or cohorts. Use when Codex is asked to write finance commentary, explain budget or revenue variance, compare KPI actuals to plan, summarize month-over-month changes, or prepare variance notes for review.

- Skill: `gabrielmoreira/variance-commentary` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 3 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add gabrielmoreira/variance-commentary`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/gabrielmoreira/variance-commentary/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Research & Search
- License: MIT
- Author: gabrielmoreira (https://skillmd.com/u/gabrielmoreira)
- Updated: 2026-09-09
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/gabrielmoreira/variance-commentary

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# Variance Commentary

## Core Workflow

1. Identify actuals, target or baseline, period, scope, owner, and materiality
   threshold.
2. Verify the variance calculation and units from supplied data.
3. Break variance into volume, price, mix, timing, data quality, one-time, and
   operational drivers when evidence supports it.
4. Separate confirmed drivers from hypotheses and required follow-up.
5. State business impact, confidence, owner, and recommended next action.
6. Keep reviewer notes separate from external or board-facing language.

## Safety Rules

- Do not invent actuals, targets, forecasts, drivers, or accounting treatment.
- Do not provide tax, audit, accounting, legal, or investment advice.
- Do not publish finance commentary without finance owner review.
- Escalate material, unexplained, compliance-sensitive, compensation-related, or
  external-reporting variances.

## Deliverable Shape

For variance commentary, provide:

- Variance summary
- Actual, baseline, and period
- Materiality assessment
- Driver breakdown
- Confidence and caveats
- Owner or follow-up
- Draft commentary for review

## References

- Read `references/variance-commentary-checklist.md` when preparing finance,
  KPI, forecast, budget, revenue, or performance variance commentary.