# Aihedge Zhou Jintao

> Analyze macro cycles, asset allocation, industry trends, and stock opportunities through Zhou Jintao's cycle framework. Use when researching Kondratieff waves, "涛动周期论", life wealth cycles, commodity cycles, real estate cycles, Juglar equipment cycles, inventory cycles, inflation/deflation regimes, gold, USD, equities, and qualitatively driven sector rotation.

- Skill: `hzhijun0724/aihedge-zhou-jintao` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 3 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add hzhijun0724/aihedge-zhou-jintao`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/hzhijun0724/aihedge-zhou-jintao/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: hzhijun0724 (https://skillmd.com/u/hzhijun0724)
- Updated: 2026-09-22
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/hzhijun0724/aihedge-zhou-jintao

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# Zhou Jintao Cycle Research

Use this skill for qualitative-first cycle research inspired by Zhou Jintao. The goal is to locate the economy and markets inside nested cycles, then translate that position into asset-class, industry, and stock opportunity maps.

This skill is for research, not financial advice. Treat cycle conclusions as probabilistic scenarios, not deterministic prophecy.

## Core Lens

- Start with the long wave: Kondratieff cycle position, technological revolution, capital expenditure cycle, and debt/credit regime.
- Nest shorter cycles inside the long wave: real estate cycle, Juglar equipment investment cycle, inventory cycle, and policy cycle.
- Link macro cycle phase to asset order: commodities, equities, bonds, real estate, gold, cash, and currency.
- Distinguish secular beta from cyclical rebound. A short-cycle bounce inside a long-wave downturn should be treated differently from a new long-wave upswing.
- Watch for "人生发财靠康波" as a research reminder: major wealth opportunities often come from aligning with long-cycle inflection points, not from constant trading.

## Workflow

1. Refresh current data before making present-tense claims.
   - Check growth, inflation, credit, rates, dollar, commodities, real estate, inventory, capex, and policy.
   - Use [source-map.md](references/source-map.md) as a conceptual source checklist, then update with current data and market evidence.

2. Identify the cycle stack.
   - Long wave: recovery, prosperity, recession, depression, or transition.
   - Real estate cycle: expansion, peak, contraction, balance-sheet repair, or restart.
   - Juglar cycle: equipment capex expansion, overinvestment, liquidation, or replacement.
   - Inventory cycle: restocking, passive destocking, active destocking, or early restocking.

3. Translate cycle position into assets.
   - State which assets historically fit the phase and why.
   - Separate structural logic from price confirmation.
   - Note policy distortions, globalization shifts, and China-specific conditions when relevant.

4. Build the industry map.
   - For each favored asset or macro regime, map industries: upstream resources, energy, shipping, industrial equipment, real estate chain, consumer, financials, technology, defense, gold miners, brokers, insurers, or high-dividend assets.
   - Identify whether the opportunity is demand recovery, supply constraint, pricing power, balance-sheet repair, or valuation mean reversion.

5. Generate stock opportunities.
   - Prefer a watchlist by cycle theme rather than a single recommendation.
   - Include confirmation indicators: order backlog, inventory days, price spread, capacity utilization, capex guidance, debt maturity, ROE turn, earnings revision, and valuation percentile.
   - Add invalidation conditions and timing risk.

6. Produce a cycle memo.
   - Lead with the cycle location and the strongest evidence.
   - Include asset implications, industry rotation, stock watchlist, catalysts, disconfirming evidence, and risk controls.
   - End with a clear non-advice disclaimer.

## Output Template

Provide:

1. Current source check and dates
2. Cycle stack diagnosis
3. Asset-class implication
4. Industry rotation map
5. Stock opportunity watchlist
6. Catalysts and confirming indicators
7. Disconfirming evidence and timing risk
8. Final research verdict

## Research Discipline

- Do not force every market move into a cycle story.
- Separate Zhou Jintao's original framework from later interpretation or folk summaries.
- Use primary market data, company filings, and earnings calls for current claims.
- Treat cycle timing as a range; give scenarios and signposts rather than one-date certainty.
- If using quoted text from books or web pages, keep excerpts short and rely on paraphrase.