# Forecast Accuracy

> Improve revenue forecast accuracy through consistent definitions, evidence-based commit calls, and honest risk assessment. Use when forecasting is chronically off, board confidence is low, or deal inspection needs more rigor.

- Skill: `itsual/forecast-accuracy` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add itsual/forecast-accuracy`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/itsual/forecast-accuracy/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Finance & Business
- Author: itsual (https://skillmd.com/u/itsual)
- Updated: 2026-09-22
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/itsual/forecast-accuracy

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# Forecast Accuracy

## Overview

Forecast accuracy builds organizational trust. It comes from shared definitions, evidence requirements for commit, and a culture that rewards honesty over sandbagging or wishful thinking.

## When to Use

- Weekly/monthly forecast calls
- Improving board and finance confidence
- Diagnosing systematic over/under forecasting
- Training managers on commit discipline

## Core Practices

- Define commit / best case / pipeline with evidence standards
- Inspect deals for MEDDICC gaps and single-threading
- Track forecast vs actual and learn from misses
- Separate rep optimism from manager judgment
- Avoid last-week miracle adds without qualification
- Align timing with finance revenue recognition rules where relevant

## Principles

- Accuracy > heroic optimism
- A missed forecast should produce process change, not only blame
- Sandbagging and over-forecasting both destroy trust
- Historical conversion rates ground the model

## Verification

- [ ] Category definitions are written and used
- [ ] Commit deals have documented evidence
- [ ] Forecast error is measured and trending