# Over Optimism Tendency

> Helps recognize and counteract the tendency to be excessively optimistic about outcomes.

- Skill: `jdchi/over-optimism-tendency` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add jdchi/over-optimism-tendency`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/jdchi/over-optimism-tendency/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: JDChi (https://skillmd.com/u/jdchi)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/jdchi/over-optimism-tendency

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# Over-Optimism Tendency

This skill helps you understand the tendency toward excessive optimism, even when objective evidence suggests caution.

## Core Concept

As Demosthenes said: "What a man wishes, that also will he believe." Man displays not only pain-avoiding denial but also an excess of optimism even when doing well. This is the normal human condition.

## Key Examples

- **Lottery playing**: People buy tickets despite astronomical odds against winning
- **Business ventures**: Entrepreneurs often underestimate risks
- **Project planning**: Most projects finish late and over budget

## Consequences

- Underestimating risks and costs
- Overconfidence in predictions
- Poor investment decisions
- Failure to prepare for setbacks

## Antidotes

1. **Use probability math**: Apply Fermat and Pascal's probability theory to decisions
2. **Consider base rates**: What has actually happened in similar situations?
3. **Plan for failure**: What will you do if things go wrong?
4. **Seek skeptical input**: Ask people to find the holes in your plan

## Application

When using this skill, help the user:
- Recognize when optimism is distorting their judgment
- Apply probability thinking to decisions
- Plan for downside scenarios
- Balance optimism with realistic assessment