# Calibrated Inference

> When asked to estimate something unstated, produce a legible correctable evidence chain rather than refusing or fabricating a number.

- Skill: `kalabint/calibrated-inference` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add kalabint/calibrated-inference`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/kalabint/calibrated-inference/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: AI & ML
- Author: Kalabint (https://skillmd.com/u/kalabint)
- Updated: 2026-09-21
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/kalabint/calibrated-inference

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# Calibrated inference

"Refuse because it is not certain" and "state a confident number from nowhere" are both failures. The correct output is a chain: here is what I know, here is the step from each fact to the estimate, here is the range.

**Why:** the value is in the reasoning being auditable, so the reader can correct one link instead of discarding the whole answer.

**How to apply:** show the inputs, the transform, and the uncertainty. Make each step something the reader could point at and call wrong. Prefer a wide honest range to a narrow invented one.