# Bid Strategy Selector

> Evaluate Google Ads campaign bid strategies and recommend the optimal approach per campaign based on conversion volume, value variation, budget headroom, and goals. Use this skill when a user asks which bid strategy to use, mentions Target CPA / Target ROAS / Maximize Conversions, asks about Smart Bidding, wants to know if they should switch from Manual CPC, asks why their automated bidding is underperforming, or is rolling out a new campaign and needs to choose a strategy. Trigger on phrases like "bid strategy", "tCPA", "tROAS", "Maximize Conversions", "Manual CPC", "Smart Bidding", "should I use [strategy]", or any question about how Google Ads bids.

- Skill: `kochellenk-afk/bid-strategy-selector` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add kochellenk-afk/bid-strategy-selector`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/kochellenk-afk/bid-strategy-selector/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Marketing & Growth
- Author: kochellenk-afk (https://skillmd.com/u/kochellenk-afk)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/kochellenk-afk/bid-strategy-selector

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# Bid Strategy Selector

A skill for matching the right Google Ads bid strategy to each campaign's data and goals.

## What this skill does

Given campaign data, this skill recommends one of seven bid strategies per campaign with:
1. The reasoning (data-backed)
2. The recommended target value (tCPA dollars or tROAS percentage) where applicable
3. A transition plan (don't switch cold)
4. Expected performance change
5. Risk factors and what to monitor

## The seven strategies (when to use each)

Read `references/strategy-comparison.md` for the full breakdown. Quick guide:

| Strategy | Use when |
|---|---|
| **Manual CPC** | New campaigns, <15 conv/month, or tight bid control needed |
| **Enhanced CPC** | Transitioning from Manual to Smart Bidding (rarely the final answer) |
| **Maximize Clicks** | Top-of-funnel awareness with no conversion tracking - used very sparingly |
| **Maximize Conversions** | Scaling campaigns where you want all available budget spent on conversions |
| **Target CPA** | 30+ conversions/month, consistent CPA goal, value per conversion is similar |
| **Maximize Conversion Value** | Ecommerce with variable order values, want to maximize total revenue |
| **Target ROAS** | 50+ conv/month with conversion value tracking, specific ROAS target |

## Required inputs

1. **Campaign data with at least 90 days of history**
2. **Per-campaign monthly conversion volume** - required for Smart Bidding eligibility checks
3. **Conversion tracking quality** - does the user track conversion VALUE, not just count? (Required for Target ROAS / Max Conv Value.)
4. **Business goal per campaign** - what are they optimizing for? (Volume? CPA target? Specific ROAS?)
5. **Budget headroom** - are campaigns hitting daily budget caps?

If conversion value tracking isn't set up but the user wants ROAS-based bidding, flag this as a prerequisite.

## Workflow

### Step 1: Per-campaign assessment

For each campaign, gather:

- Current bid strategy
- Last 90 days monthly conversion volume (avg)
- Conversion value variation (CV - coefficient of variation = std dev / mean)
- Budget utilization (is daily budget capped?)
- CPA stability (90-day CPA standard deviation as % of mean)
- Performance trend on current strategy (improving, stable, declining)

### Step 2: Eligibility filter

Apply hard rules first:

- **Conv volume < 15/month** → Manual CPC only. Smart Bidding needs data.
- **No conversion value tracking** → no Target ROAS or Max Conv Value possible. Recommend setting up value tracking as a prerequisite.
- **Conv volume 15–30/month** → Maximize Conversions OK; Target CPA risky (will work, but learning is unstable).
- **Conv volume 30–50/month** → Target CPA OK; Target ROAS still risky.
- **Conv volume 50+/month with value tracking** → all strategies on the table.

### Step 3: Match strategy to goal

Within the eligible set, match to the user's stated goal:

| User goal | Best strategy |
|---|---|
| "Spend my whole budget, get max conversions" | Maximize Conversions |
| "Stay below $X CPA" | Target CPA at $X |
| "Hit specific ROAS, scale within that constraint" | Target ROAS |
| "Maximize total revenue, value varies a lot" | Maximize Conversion Value |
| "I want full control" | Manual CPC (despite efficiency cost) |
| "Get clicks for awareness" | Maximize Clicks (rarely the answer) |

### Step 4: Recommend the target value

If recommending Target CPA:
- Start at the campaign's recent (last 30 days) CPA, NOT the user's wishful target. tCPA shouldn't be set 30% below current CPA - Google will choke volume to hit it.
- Tighten over weeks if performance allows.

If recommending Target ROAS:
- Start at recent achieved ROAS, then tighten 5–10% per month.
- Same principle: aspirational targets kill volume.

State the recommended starting target explicitly with the formula: "Set tCPA at $X, which is your last-30-day average. After 4 weeks of stable performance, consider tightening to $Y."

### Step 5: Transition plan

Switching bid strategies cold is the #1 cause of post-switch CPA spikes. For each switch, recommend:

1. **Test on one campaign first.** Don't bulk-switch.
2. **Use portfolio bid strategies** if multiple similar campaigns exist - let them learn together.
3. **Expect a 7–14 day learning period.** Do NOT optimize during this window.
4. **Set conservative initial targets** (looser than current performance).
5. **Don't pause keywords or change budgets during learning.** It resets the model.
6. **Monitor for 4 weeks** before declaring success or failure.

### Step 6: Risk factors

For each recommendation, surface 1–3 risks:

- "If conversion volume drops below 30/month, tCPA will become unstable."
- "If your competitor escalates, Maximize Conversions may bid up significantly."
- "Target ROAS at 400% may starve volume; willing to lower target if scale matters more."

## Output format

Per-campaign recommendation table:

| Campaign | Current | Recommended | Target | Transition plan | Expected change | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

After the table, an overall summary:
- How many campaigns to switch this month
- Order of operations (which to switch first - usually start with the highest-volume, most-stable campaign)
- Prerequisites (e.g., "set up value tracking before recommendation X")

## What this skill must NOT do

- Don't recommend Smart Bidding for sub-15-conv campaigns. It will perform worse than Manual.
- Don't recommend Target ROAS without confirming the user has reliable conversion value data.
- Don't recommend tightening targets aggressively. Tighten 5–10% at a time over weeks.
- Don't say "Smart Bidding is always better." Manual CPC is the right answer for low-volume campaigns and certain branded/specialty contexts.
- Don't recommend switching a campaign that's been on its current strategy for less than 8 weeks. Let learning complete first.
- Don't recommend Maximize Clicks unless the user explicitly has an awareness goal with no conversion tracking; it almost always wastes spend otherwise.

## Reference files

- `references/strategy-comparison.md` - full strategy-by-strategy breakdown
- `references/transition-playbook.md` - step-by-step transition checklist with timing