# Financial Assumptions

> Force every financial number to rest on a declared assumption instead of a default or a guess, and write them to ASSUMPTIONS.md. Use before building any pricing, model, forecast, or pitch-deck financials, or when the user asks "what should we charge", "build a model", "what are the projections", "TAM". This is the finance department's anti-slop core — the ASSUMPTIONS.md it produces is what financial-model and finance-critic hold every number to.

- Skill: `le-19-stvn/financial-assumptions` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add le-19-stvn/financial-assumptions`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/le-19-stvn/financial-assumptions/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: AI & ML
- Author: le-19-stvn (https://skillmd.com/u/le-19-stvn)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/le-19-stvn/financial-assumptions

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# Financial Assumptions

No number without a stated reason behind it. Before any model exists, produce an `ASSUMPTIONS.md` that makes every driver explicit — the opposite of a spreadsheet full of numbers nobody can defend.

Read `TASTE.md` and `CLAUDE.md` first for the project's register and constraints (a bootstrapped brand and a VC-track startup make different assumptions on purpose). (Check for and open these with your Read/Glob tools, not shell commands — OS portability.)

## What ASSUMPTIONS.md must declare

Each line is an input with its **source and its basis** — "because X," not a number in a vacuum. Mark each as *known*, *estimated*, or *guess* so the model's confidence is honest.

- **Market basis** — how TAM/SAM/SOM is derived (bottom-up preferred: users × price, not "1% of a big number").
- **Pricing logic** — what the price is anchored to (value, cost-plus, competitor, willingness-to-pay) and why.
- **Cost drivers** — fixed vs variable, unit cost, the main cost lines.
- **Growth & conversion** — acquisition rate, conversion, churn/retention, each with its basis.
- **Cash** — runway, burn, key timing (when revenue starts, payment terms).
- **The load-bearing assumptions** — flag the 2–3 the whole model hinges on. If one breaks, the model breaks; name them.

## Rules

- **Declare, don't default.** No industry-standard number gets used silently — write down that you chose it and why.
- **Bottom-up over top-down.** Build totals from units and rates, not from a percentage of a headline figure.
- **Conservative unless justified.** Optimism is a declared choice traceable to evidence, never the default.
- **Honesty labels.** *Known / estimated / guess* on every line — a guess dressed as a fact is the core finance slop.

## Not investment advice

This declares the project's own operating assumptions. It does not recommend securities, investments, or personal financial decisions. Keep that boundary.

## Output

Write `ASSUMPTIONS.md` at project root. Short and declarative — read at the start of every finance session and by `finance-critic` on every deliverable. Link it from `CLAUDE.md`.

## Before calling it done

Every driver has a basis and an honesty label, totals are built bottom-up, and the load-bearing assumptions are named. If a number can't point to its assumption, it doesn't belong yet.