# Polymarket Watch

> Morning scan of finance prediction markets — the biggest overnight odds moves, fresh high-volume markets, and odds-news divergences worth a look. Use when the user wants a standing daily read on which prediction markets look interesting.

- Skill: `llmquant/polymarket-watch` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add llmquant/polymarket-watch`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/llmquant/polymarket-watch/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: llmquant (https://skillmd.com/u/llmquant)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/llmquant/polymarket-watch

---


# Polymarket Watch

Runs before the market opens and sends one short list of prediction markets
worth a look this morning. It answers:

1. Which finance markets moved the most overnight?
2. Which fresh markets picked up real volume?
3. Where do the odds and the news disagree?

This skill is orchestration only. For probability-gap and settlement-criteria
method, install [`LLMQuant/skills`](https://github.com/LLMQuant/skills).

## Model baseline

Use DeepSeek as the default Hermes model for this scheduled job. DeepSeek V4
Flash is enough for routine scan-and-summarize runs. Use a stronger DeepSeek
model only when the user asks for a deeper follow-up.

## MCP tools used

| Tool | Purpose | Credit / call |
|---|---|---|
| `polymarket_event_browse` | Active finance events for tracked topics, filtered by volume and liquidity | 1 |
| `polymarket_event_search` | Optional natural-language discovery when a theme has no exact match | 2 |
| `polymarket_price_history` | Overnight odds moves for candidate markets | 0 |
| `polymarket_event_read` | Details and settlement criteria for flagged events | 0 |
| `polymarket_market_read` | Per-market odds and outcome detail | 0 |
| `news_browse` | News cross-check on flagged markets' tickers and topics | 2 |

Browse first; search only when a `watchlist.prediction_market_topics` theme
returns nothing exact. Price history and reads are free — spend those, not
extra browse calls.

## Cron

```bash
hermes cron create "30 7 * * 1-5" "Run the polymarket-watch playbook: scan active finance prediction markets, flag the biggest overnight odds moves and odds-news divergences, keep it short and source-linked." \
  --skill polymarket-watch \
  --name "polymarket-watch" \
  --deliver telegram
```

On some Hermes versions (as of v0.18.x), cron expressions run in host-local
time. Confirm the next-run time with `hermes cron list` after creating the
job. Scheduled a bit before `morning-brief` so the two land together.

## Delivery

Telegram is the default delivery channel.

- `--deliver telegram` sends to the Telegram home channel after `/sethome`.
- `--deliver telegram:<chat_id>` targets a specific chat.
- For Slack, Discord, or other gateways, check the user's Hermes gateway
  syntax before scheduling.

## Cost of watching

Keep runs lean: one browse per run covers most mornings, the follow-up reads
and price history are free, and one `news_browse` call cross-checks the
flagged markets. Skip the optional search call unless a tracked theme finds
nothing.

## Output contract

Every delivered scan should include:

- as-of timestamp and local timezone;
- at most 3-5 markets, each with the odds move (from → to overnight), volume
  or liquidity context, and the news cross-check: backed by news, not backed,
  or no news found;
- settlement criteria or resolution date for anything flagged;
- tool names used for factual claims;
- "interesting" means worth a look, not a position: close with the no-advice
  disclaimer from `templates/SOUL.md` — discipline rule 3 applies to odds as
  much as to stocks.

## Customize

- `watchlist.prediction_market_topics`: edit in workspace `AGENTS.md`; a few
  themes is enough, empty falls back to a broad finance browse sorted by
  volume.
- Cadence: weekdays by default; markets trade through weekends, so add
  Saturday if the user tracks macro or politics-adjacent finance events.
- Depth: raise the market cap from 3-5 only if the user asks; a short list
  is the product.
- Delivery: change `--deliver` to the channel the user checks first.