# Thesis Market Mapping > Build and maintain a thesis-driven market map and roadmap: segment taxonomy, company list, wedge hypotheses, and 'must be true' claims. Use when exploring a new sector, refreshing coverage, or generating high-conviction sourcing targets. - Skill: `majiayu000/thesis-market-mapping` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 2 files) - Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add majiayu000/thesis-market-mapping` - Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/majiayu000/thesis-market-mapping/raw - Safety review: pending (external: skill-scanner PASS, skillspector PASS) - Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex - Category: Product & Planning - License: Proprietary - Author: majiayu000 (https://skillmd.com/u/majiayu000) - Updated: 2026-09-09 - Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/majiayu000/thesis-market-mapping --- # Thesis market mapping ## When to use Use this skill when you need to: - Build an internal point of view on a sector (new thesis or coverage refresh) - Produce a *market map* (companies + segmentation) that drives sourcing and diligence - Turn "interesting" into "actionable" (who to meet, what to ignore, what to bet) ## Inputs you should request (only if missing) - Sector / theme and a *tight wedge* to start with (e.g., "AI eval tooling for regulated industries") - Stage focus (pre-seed/seed/A/B+) and check size range - Any existing notes, prior memos, or firm theses - Time horizon (what "now" means: 6, 12, 24 months) ## Outputs you must produce 1) **Market map database** (CSV/Sheet-style, not prose) 2) **Thesis one-pager** (max ~1 page) with falsifiable claims 3) **Top 10 force-ranked list** with: - One-sentence "must be true" per company - Wedge hypothesis - Why now - What would change your mind 4) **Kill criteria** (explicit signals that would cause you to abandon the thesis) 5) **Contrarian hypotheses**: - 3 reasons this thesis is right when others disagree - 3 reasons this market might be fake 6) **Sourcing routing** (who internally should see what, and why) Recommended templates: - assets/market-map.csv - assets/thesis-one-pager.md - assets/top-targets.md ## Procedure ### 1) Set the aperture (do this first) Write a 3-5 line problem statement: - Who is the buyer? - What job are they trying to get done? - What is broken about the current workflow? - What changed that makes a new approach possible now? Then define the wedge: - Narrow enough that you can know it better than the internet in 30-60 days. - Broad enough that it can expand to a big market if you're right. ### 2) Create a segmentation taxonomy (avoid "misc") Create categories that reflect **how buyers buy**, not just product features. Use 5-9 primary segments max. For each segment, add: - ICP / buyer role - Budget source (security, IT, product, compliance, etc.) - Adoption trigger event (regulatory change, platform shift, cost curve, breach, etc.) - "Why now" drivers ### 3) Populate the market map (treat it like a database) Fill the table with: - Company / product - Wedge + ICP - Pricing / GTM motion (PLG, sales-led, channel, services-assisted, etc.) - Proof of pull (referenceable customers, OSS adoption, hiring, usage signals) - Differentiation (one sentence) - Switching costs / moat hypothesis - Notable risks (one sentence) - Investors / financing (if known) - Status (meet / watch / pass) Rules: - Keep entries short; you're optimizing for scan speed. - Record *unknowns* explicitly; don't guess. ### 4) Force-rank and write "must be true" claims Pick the **top 10** companies that matter and write: - "This becomes huge if ______ is true." - Evidence you have **today** (links, conversations, data) - What would falsify it (what you'd need to see to stop believing) - **Fastest test to validate or kill** (what's the 1-day test?) Then write 3-7 "must be true" claims for the thesis overall, such as: - Buyer behavior ("CISO will fund this from X budget because...") - Distribution ("This category will be won by teams with...") - Product leverage ("Model improvements reduce cost by...") ### 5) Write contrarian hypotheses and kill criteria **Contrarian hypotheses (why you might be right when others disagree):** - 3 reasons this thesis is correct that aren't consensus - What do you believe that most investors in the space would disagree with? **Why this market might be fake (steelman the bear case):** - 3 reasons this market doesn't exist or won't work - What would make you abandon this thesis entirely? **Kill criteria (explicit exit conditions):** - List 3-5 signals that would cause you to stop pursuing this thesis - Examples: "If [buyer type] doesn't fund this from [budget], abandon." "If cycle time exceeds X months, abandon." ### 6) Identify archetypes and failure modes For each segment, list the 2-4 most common failure modes: - "Nice-to-have" that dies in procurement - High integration cost with unclear ROI - Incumbent bundles it "good enough" - Founder misunderstands buyer / cycle time This becomes your future screening rubric. ### 7) Convert the map into a sourcing plan Create a weekly plan: - 10 "new names" to investigate - 5 outreach targets - 3 operator calls (buyer-side truth) - 1 deep dive (new sub-segment) Deliverable: a 10-bullet "what changed this week" update. ## Salesforce logging (optional but recommended) If Salesforce is the system of record, log the map so the firm can route and measure work. **Option A (simple):** - Create a Salesforce **Campaign** called `Thesis: (YYYY-MM)` and add target companies/people as Campaign Members. **Option B (low-dependency):** - Create/update **Leads** for founder contacts and **Accounts** for companies. - Store `Thesis=` in a tagging field if you have one; otherwise prepend it to Description. If you need API workflows, use the `salesforce-crm-ops` skill. ## Examples - Input: "Map the AI code review / AI SDLC tooling market for seed deals." - Output: market-map.csv with 120 companies, taxonomy, top 10 force-ranked targets with must-be-true + fastest test, 5 falsifiable claims, 3 contrarian hypotheses, 3 bear cases, kill criteria, weekly sourcing plan. ## Edge cases - If the wedge is too broad: propose 2 narrower wedges and proceed with the one that has the clearest buyer + budget. - If you can't find buyers: switch to operator calls (the map is empty without buyer truth).