# Schedule Risk Review

> Reviews current schedule against baseline, identifies critical-path risks, recomputes completion and stabilization probability, and routes a rebaseline proposal when warranted. Integrates with `workflows/cost_to_complete_review` and `workflows/draw_package_review` for financial consequences.

- Skill: `mariourquia/schedule-risk-review` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 5 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add mariourquia/schedule-risk-review`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/mariourquia/schedule-risk-review/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: mariourquia (https://skillmd.com/u/mariourquia)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/mariourquia/schedule-risk-review

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# Schedule Risk Review

## Workflow purpose

Keep the project schedule honest. Measure slip, name the cause, quantify the cost and lease-up downstream impact, and route any rebaseline.

## Trigger conditions

- **Explicit:** "run schedule risk", "what's the slip", "rebaseline proposal".
- **Implicit:** milestone slipped vs. baseline; critical-path disruption; weather delay beyond overlay tolerance; lease-up pace approaching stabilization deadline.
- **Recurring:** monthly per active project.

## Inputs (required / optional)

| Input | Type | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current schedule | record | required | |
| Baseline schedule | record | required | |
| Milestone record | table | required | baseline vs. current forecast |
| Critical-path disruption log | log | optional | |
| Duration assumption overlay | csv | required | |
| Lease-up plan (if applicable) | record | optional | |

## Outputs

| Output | Type | Shape |
|---|---|---|
| Schedule delta view | `kpi_review` | `schedule_variance_days`, `milestone_slippage_rate` |
| Critical-path memo | `memo` | cause, cost impact, lease-up impact |
| Rebaseline proposal | `memo` | with approval path |
| Lease-up delivery scenario | `kpi_review` | `lease_up_pace_post_delivery` / `stabilization_pace_vs_plan` |

## Required context

Asset_class, segment, form_factor, market, project.

## Process

1. **Compute schedule delta.** `schedule_variance_days` and `milestone_slippage_rate`.
2. **Classify cause.** Trade delay, material lead time, permit, weather, design, labor, owner decision.
3. **Critical-path analysis.** Determine whether slip is on critical path.
4. **Cost consequence.** Link to `workflows/cost_to_complete_review` (escalation, labor, carry cost).
5. **Lease-up consequence (if applicable).** Link to `lease_up_pace_post_delivery` and `stabilization_pace_vs_plan`.
6. **Rebaseline recommendation.** If slip exceeds overlay threshold, recommend rebaseline; opens `approval_request` per overlay.
7. **Confidence banner.** References surfaced.

## Metrics used

`schedule_variance_days`, `milestone_slippage_rate`, `punchlist_closeout_rate`, `lease_up_pace_post_delivery`, `stabilization_pace_vs_plan`.

## Reference files used

- `reference/normalized/construction_duration_assumptions__{region}.csv`
- `reference/normalized/approval_threshold_defaults.csv`

## Escalation points

- Slip above overlay: CM -> AM -> executive.
- Critical-path disruption: CM + AM approval per overlay.

## Required approvals

- Schedule rebaseline.

## Failure modes

1. Slip view without critical-path analysis. Fix: step is mandatory.
2. Missing cost consequence link. Fix: invokes CTC review.
3. Silent rebaseline. Fix: rebaseline is an approval.
4. Lease-up impact ignored. Fix: lease-up scenario mandatory when applicable.

## Edge cases

- **Permit delay at start:** cascading; document clearly.
- **Weather seasonality:** overlay governs expected delays; variance beyond overlay is the flag.
- **Owner-driven delay (design changes):** attribute to owner; cost exposure view distinct.
- **Subcontractor default mid-project:** significant rebaseline likely; escalate.

## Example invocations

1. "Run schedule risk review for Willow Creek."
2. "What's the critical-path slip on the South End renovation?"
3. "Lease-up impact if framing slips 30 days on Riverbend."

## Example outputs

### Output — Schedule risk (abridged, Willow Creek April)

**Slip.** `schedule_variance_days` within overlay band; `milestone_slippage_rate` within band.

**Cause.** One trade's material lead time on one milestone; non-critical path.

**Cost.** Minor carrying cost; CTC review to confirm.

**Lease-up.** No material change to expected TCO.

**Rebaseline.** Not recommended.

**Confidence banner.** `construction_duration_assumptions__southeast@2026-03-31 (starter)`.