# Fin Cash Flow

> Build a rolling 30/60/90-day cash forecast from AR/AP aging and fixed outflows, flag floor breaches, and model liquidity levers.

- Skill: `matrixx0070/fin-cash-flow` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds add matrixx0070/fin-cash-flow`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/matrixx0070/fin-cash-flow/raw
- Safety review: pending (external: skill-scanner PASS, skillspector PASS)
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: AI & ML
- Author: Matrixx0070 (https://skillmd.com/u/matrixx0070)
- Updated: 2026-08-19
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/matrixx0070/fin-cash-flow

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# Cash Flow Forecast

## When to use
Use this to project short-term liquidity, answer "will we make payroll / cover this quarter," or build a rolling 30/60/90-day cash forecast from receivables, payables, and known fixed outflows.

**Not for:** the historical indirect-method cash flow *statement* in a reporting package (fin-financial-statements), or actual-vs-plan variance on cash (fin-variance-analysis). This is forward-looking liquidity planning.

## Method
1. **Set the starting position.** Record today's cash balance, the forecast start date, and any minimum-cash covenant or comfort floor.
2. **Project inflows.** From AR aging, schedule expected collections by expected pay date. Decision point: apply collection-probability haircuts by aging bucket (current ~95%, 30–60 ~80%, 90+ ~50%) — do not forecast overdue invoices at face value. Add other known inflows (financing, deposits).
3. **Project outflows.** From AP aging and payment terms, schedule disbursements; add recurring fixed outflows (payroll, rent, debt service, taxes) on their due dates.
4. **Bucket into 30/60/90.** Roll inflows and outflows into three periods; compute net cash flow and a running ending balance per bucket.
5. **Flag risk.** Decision point: mark any period where ending balance breaches the floor or goes negative; record shortfall size and the exact date it hits.
6. **Model levers.** Show the effect of accelerating collections, delaying payables, or drawing a credit line.
7. **Recommend actions.** Prioritize the levers that close the gap with the least disruption.

## Example
Start cash $220k, floor $150k. Days 0–30: inflows $310k (AR, haircut-adjusted), outflows $360k (incl. $180k payroll) → net −$50k, ending $170k (above floor). Days 31–60: inflows $280k, outflows $340k → net −$60k, ending $110k — **breaches $150k floor on day ~48**, shortfall $40k. Lever: pull a $90k invoice from a current-bucket customer forward 15 days (accelerate collection) → day-48 balance back to $170k. Recommend that plus deferring a $30k non-critical payable one cycle as backup.

## Pitfalls
- **Forecasting overdue AR at face value.** 90+ invoices rarely pay in full or on time — haircut them or you overstate liquidity.
- **Missing fixed, non-invoice outflows.** Payroll, taxes, and debt service don't appear in AP aging; add them explicitly.
- **Netting away timing.** A month that nets positive can still go negative mid-period if a big outflow lands before the inflow — track the running daily/weekly balance, not just the bucket total.
- **Ignoring the floor until it's breached.** Model levers *before* the shortfall date, not after.

## Output format
```
Starting cash: <$> | Start date: <...> | Minimum floor: <$>
Forecast:
  | period (30/60/90) | inflows | outflows | net | ending balance |
Inflow detail: | source/customer | amount | expected date | probability |
Outflow detail: | payee/category | amount | due date |
Risk flags: | period | shortfall $ | date floor breached |
Levers: | action | cash impact | timing |
Recommended actions (prioritized): <...>
```

## Reference

### The 13-week cash-flow model (layout)
The 13-week direct-method forecast is the treasury standard for short-term liquidity. Columns = 13 weeks (a rolling quarter); rows = receipt and disbursement categories. Every week computes net flow and a running ending balance carried into the next week.

| Row | Detail |
|---|---|
| **Beginning cash** | = prior week ending cash (week 1 = today's actual balance) |
| **Receipts** | |
| AR collections | From AR aging, scheduled by expected pay date × collection probability |
| Other inflows | Financing draws, tax refunds, asset sales, customer deposits |
| **Total receipts** | Sum of inflows |
| **Disbursements** | |
| AP / vendor payments | From AP aging + terms, by due date |
| Payroll | Every pay cycle (semi-monthly/bi-weekly) — largest recurring outflow |
| Rent / lease | Monthly, on due date |
| Debt service | Principal + interest per amortization schedule |
| Taxes | Payroll, sales, income estimated payments on statutory dates |
| Capex / other | Planned equipment, one-offs |
| **Total disbursements** | Sum of outflows |
| **Net cash flow** | Receipts − disbursements |
| **Ending cash** | Beginning + net flow |
| **Minimum floor** | Covenant or comfort floor (constant line) |
| **Headroom** | Ending cash − floor (flag if negative) |

Weeks 1–4 should use near-actual, known items (high confidence); weeks 5–13 rely more on modeled patterns. Roll the model forward each week: drop the completed week, add a new week 13, and reconcile last week's forecast vs. actual to calibrate.

### Collection-probability haircuts (AR by aging bucket)
Never forecast overdue AR at face value. Typical assumptions (tune to your own collection history):

| Bucket | Collection probability | Expected timing |
|---|---|---|
| Current (not yet due) | ~95% | On terms |
| 1–30 days past due | ~85% | +1–2 weeks |
| 31–60 days | ~75% | +3–4 weeks |
| 61–90 days | ~50% | Uncertain |
| 90+ days | ~25% or write-off review | Uncertain |

### What AP aging misses
Fixed, non-invoice outflows never appear in AP aging — add them explicitly: **payroll, payroll taxes, rent, debt service, income/sales tax remittances, insurance, benefits.** These are often the largest and most rigid disbursements; missing one is the top cause of a "surprise" shortfall.

### Liquidity levers (in order of least disruption)
1. **Accelerate collections** — early-pay discounts, pull large current-bucket invoices forward, factor receivables.
2. **Delay non-critical payables** — stretch to the terms limit (not past — protect vendor relationships and discounts).
3. **Draw the revolver / line of credit** — fast but adds interest and uses covenant headroom.
4. **Defer discretionary capex.**
5. **Equity / term debt** — slowest, for structural (not timing) gaps.
Model the lever *before* the breach date; a lever applied after the floor is breached is a fire drill.

### Timing trap and floor discipline
A period that nets positive can still go negative mid-period if a large outflow (payroll) lands before an inflow. Track the running weekly/daily balance, not just the bucket total. Flag the exact date and dollar size of any floor breach. Minimum-cash covenants are often the binding constraint before insolvency — treat the floor, not zero, as the trigger line. Always run a downside scenario (collections slip one bucket, a large customer delays) alongside the base case.