# Tcx Forecast

> Require horizon-bound, evidence-aware, updateable forecast fields when prediction, valuation implication, or decision support is in scope.

- Skill: `monarchjuno/tcx-forecast` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 2 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add monarchjuno/tcx-forecast`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/monarchjuno/tcx-forecast/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: monarchjuno (https://skillmd.com/u/monarchjuno)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/monarchjuno/tcx-forecast

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# Forecasting Discipline

Use this procedure when a workflow asks for prediction, scenario probability,
valuation implication, or decision support.

Forecast fields are an agentic judgment contract, not a trading model, feature
store, autonomous signal, or execution trigger. Use them to make role judgment
reviewable, horizon-bound, falsifiable, updateable, and suitable for
postmortem.

Required output shape:

- `forecast_required`
- `forecast_allowed`
- `forecast_block_reason` when probability should not be produced
- `forecast_target`
- `forecast_horizon`
- `probability` or `probability_range` when allowed
- `base_rate` or missing-base-rate note
- `evidence_ids`
- `contrary_evidence`
- `resolution_source`
- `review_date`
- `update_triggers`
- `invalidation_conditions`

Quality floor:

- Bound each forecast to a resolvable target and horizon.
- Separate factual data, model output, assumption, and judgment.
- For a scoreable binary forecast, provide a point probability; an optional
  range may express uncertainty around it. Range-only records are exploratory
  diagnostics and do not count toward proper-score calibration.
- Treat forecast probability as role judgment that needs evidence, contrary
  evidence, review date, and invalidation conditions.
- If `probability` and `probability_range` both appear, keep the point value
  inside the range.
- If evidence is too weak to defend a scoreable point probability, use
  `forecast_allowed: false` rather than presenting a range-only record as a
  calibrated forecast. Use `not-decision-ready`, `revise`, or `blocked` with
  a clear block reason.
- When forecast scope is negated, provide qualitative scenarios only; do not
  create probability fields or forecast ledger records.

Write scoreable records under `trading/forecasts/` only after accepted
evidence supports the forecast.