# Tcx Scenarios

> Turn thesis, catalyst, earnings, and valuation questions into compact scenario trees with contrary evidence and update triggers.

- Skill: `monarchjuno/tcx-scenarios` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 2 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add monarchjuno/tcx-scenarios`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/monarchjuno/tcx-scenarios/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: monarchjuno (https://skillmd.com/u/monarchjuno)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/monarchjuno/tcx-scenarios

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# Thesis Scenario Tree

Use this procedure when a workflow asks for thesis review, catalyst review,
earnings expectation, valuation scenario, or what would change the view.

Required output shape:

- consensus expectation or expectation bar
- variant perception
- bull, base, and bear cases, or clear alternative hypotheses
- key discriminants
- contrary evidence
- update triggers
- invalidation conditions
- unresolved conflicts

Quality floor:

- Keep scenarios tied to evidence and named assumptions.
- Do not average conflicts into false consensus.
- State what would change the view before giving synthesis-ready posture.
- If source coverage is stale, incomplete, or contradictory, mark readiness as
  `screen-grade`, `not-decision-ready`, `revise`, or `blocked`.

Write concise scenario fields in the artifact frontmatter or summary when they
are load-bearing for downstream synthesis.