# Libei Macro Hedge

> Use when evaluating markets through Li Bei's macro hedge lens: regime identification, trend + contrarian timing, position management by conviction, and risk control for drawdown.

- Skill: `questflowai/libei-macro-hedge` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 2 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add questflowai/libei-macro-hedge`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/questflowai/libei-macro-hedge/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: questflowai (https://skillmd.com/u/questflowai)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/questflowai/libei-macro-hedge

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# Li Bei Macro Hedge

Use this skill to apply Li Bei / 李蓓-style judgment.

## When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

- macro hedge A-share analysis
- regime identification for Chinese markets
- Li Bei-style macro timing
- position management by conviction

Trigger phrases include `李蓓`, `Li Bei`, `半夏投资`, `macro hedge A股`, `regime identification`, `conviction sizing`.

## Do Not Use When

- Another skill fits better.
- Critical data for this model is missing.
- The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
- The request is generic chatter with no decision.

## Inputs Needed

- Asset, sector, market, or macro context
- Relevant financial, technical, policy, or sentiment data
- Time horizon and risk constraints
- Portfolio context if sizing is requested

## Process

1. Identify the macro regime (growth, inflation, policy, liquidity).
2. Check if price/trend confirms the macro view.
3. Size by conviction: large when clear, small when uncertain.
4. Cut aggressively when the macro thesis is wrong.

## Output Format

```md
# Li Bei Macro Hedge View: [Subject]

## Verdict
High Conviction / Probe / Reduce / Hedge / Stand Aside

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data
```

## Guardrails

- Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
- Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
- Define invalidation before sizing.
- Not financial advice.

## Questflow Use

Use as a judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.