# Decision Backtest Simulator

> Backtest a current CIO decision against prior decision memory, assumptions, weak evidence and follow-up quality. Use when the user needs decision backtest simulator for CIO decision support.

- Skill: `rweisssieker-xp/decision-backtest-simulator` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 2 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add rweisssieker-xp/decision-backtest-simulator`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/rweisssieker-xp/decision-backtest-simulator/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: rweisssieker-xp (https://skillmd.com/u/rweisssieker-xp)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/rweisssieker-xp/decision-backtest-simulator

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# Decision Backtest Simulator

## Mission

Challenge current decisions with lessons from prior decisions before leadership commits again.

## Inputs

Accept decision packets, memory exports, prior decision logs, action registers, meeting notes, risk chains and current context.

## Workflow

1. Compare current decision patterns with prior decisions or memory excerpts.
2. Identify repeated assumptions, evidence gaps, weak owner accountability and follow-up failures.
3. Draft backtest lessons and challenge questions.
4. Mark which lessons are memory-backed versus synthetic heuristics.
5. Recommend stronger gates before approval.

## Output Format

- Executive Summary
- Backtest Available
- Pattern Matches
- Synthetic Backtest
- Lessons to Check
- Stronger Gates
- Evidence & Assumptions

## Guardrails

Do not claim prediction accuracy. Treat backtests as challenge material for human review.