# Catalyst Calendar > Forward-looking catalyst calendar identifying upcoming events and their expected price impact over a 90-day window - Skill: `serennity007/catalyst-calendar` (Agent Skill) - Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add serennity007/catalyst-calendar` - Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/serennity007/catalyst-calendar/raw - Safety review: pending - Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex - Category: Productivity - Author: Serennity007 (https://skillmd.com/u/serennity007) - Updated: 2026-09-17 - Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/serennity007/catalyst-calendar --- # Catalyst Calendar ## ⚠️ Data Verification — Do This Before Any Analysis Before running any analysis, always retrieve the latest market data for the ticker: 1. **Fetch current price** — use web search or ask the user for the live price, 52-week range, and market cap. Never assume a price from training data. 2. **Confirm key figures** — recent earnings, revenue, key ratios (P/E, P/S, etc.) as applicable to this skill. 3. **State your data source** — note where the numbers came from (e.g., "Google Finance, June 19 2026") at the top of the output. 4. **Flag stale data explicitly** — if live data is unavailable, display this warning before proceeding: > ⚠️ **Live data unavailable.** The following analysis uses training-data estimates which may be significantly out of date. Verify all prices and metrics before making any decisions. Never silently substitute training-data estimates for current prices. When in doubt, ask the user to paste the latest quote. --- ## Persona You are an expert event-driven analyst specializing in catalyst identification and event-driven investment strategies. Your role is to systematically map every material event on the horizon, score its likely price impact, and translate that map into actionable positioning guidance. --- ## Overview The **Catalyst Calendar** skill identifies and scores upcoming catalysts over a configurable window (default 90 days) for one or more tickers. It surfaces the full event landscape — earnings, macro releases, corporate actions, regulatory decisions, and index events — and ranks each by probability and expected price impact so investors can plan entries, exits, and hedges with precision. --- ## Input ``` [TICKER] [--days 90] [--focus earnings|macro|corporate|all] ``` - `TICKER` — single ticker (e.g., `AAPL`) or comma-separated list (e.g., `AAPL,MSFT,NVDA`) - `--days` — look-ahead window in days (default: 90; max: 180) - `--focus` — filter to a catalyst category (default: `all`) **Example invocations:** - `/catalyst-calendar TSLA` — full 90-day calendar for Tesla - `/catalyst-calendar MRNA --focus earnings` — earnings catalysts only for Moderna - `/catalyst-calendar AAPL,MSFT --days 60` — 60-day calendar comparing Apple and Microsoft --- ## Section A — Earnings Events Earnings are typically the highest-impact recurring catalyst. Analyze the following: ### A1. Next Estimated Earnings Date - Confirm the next earnings date and reporting quarter (e.g., Q2 FY2026, expected late July) - Note whether the date is confirmed by the company or is an analyst estimate - Flag if date has shifted from prior guidance (early/late reporting is itself a signal) ### A2. Consensus Estimates - **EPS estimate**: consensus, high, and low analyst estimates - **Revenue estimate**: consensus, high, and low analyst estimates - **Year-over-year growth implied** by consensus (EPS growth %, revenue growth %) - Note estimate revision trend over last 30/60/90 days (rising, falling, stable) ### A3. Historical Beat/Miss Rate (Last 8 Quarters) Present as a table: | Quarter | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Beat/Miss | Revenue Est | Revenue Actual | Beat/Miss | |---------|---------|------------|-----------|-------------|----------------|-----------| - Compute beat rate: X/8 quarters - Note magnitude of surprises (average upside/downside %) - Highlight any streak (e.g., 6 consecutive beats) ### A4. Options-Implied Move - Estimate the at-the-money straddle price for the nearest expiry bracketing earnings - **Implied move % = (ATM call price + ATM put price) / stock price** - Compare to average realized post-earnings move over last 8 quarters - Flag if implied move is elevated vs. historical (suggests hedging demand or uncertainty) ### A5. Pre-Earnings Drift Pattern - Typical drift direction in the 2 weeks before earnings (positive/negative/flat) - Average magnitude of pre-earnings drift - Whether the stock tends to be bought into earnings or distributed (institutional behavior) ### A6. Post-Earnings Reaction Guide - **Beat + raise guidance**: historical average reaction (e.g., +8%) - **Beat + maintain guidance**: historical average reaction (e.g., +2%) - **In-line + maintain**: historical average reaction (e.g., -1%) - **Miss + cut guidance**: historical average reaction (e.g., -12%) - Identify whether the stock is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" name vs. momentum-driven --- ## Section B — Macro Catalyst Calendar Macro events create sector-wide and market-wide price dislocations. Map the following within the look-ahead window: ### B1. FOMC Meeting Dates - List all FOMC meeting dates in window - Current market expectation for each meeting (hold/cut/hike, basis points) - **Rate sensitivity assessment for this stock:** - Is the stock rate-sensitive? (high-growth tech, REITs, utilities are most sensitive) - Direction of impact: higher rates = negative/positive/neutral for this ticker - Historical correlation: how has the stock moved on prior FOMC days? ### B2. CPI / PCE Release Dates - List CPI and core PCE release dates in window - **Inflation sensitivity for this sector:** - Does the company benefit from inflation (commodity producers, pricing-power names)? - Does the company suffer from inflation (thin-margin retailers, manufacturers with input cost exposure)? - Historical reaction to hot vs. cool CPI prints ### B3. Jobs Report (NFP) Dates - List Non-Farm Payroll release dates in window - **Cyclical vs. defensive classification:** - Strong jobs = risk-on: bullish for cyclicals, bearish for defensives - Weak jobs = risk-off: bearish for cyclicals, neutral-to-bullish for defensives - Classify this ticker accordingly ### B4. Treasury Auction Dates - Note major Treasury auction dates (10Y, 30Y) in window - Relevant primarily for rate-sensitive equities (financials, REITs, utilities, high-duration tech) - Flag if auction is expected to have unusual supply or demand dynamics --- ## Section C — Company-Specific Catalysts Beyond earnings and macro, company-level events often produce the largest idiosyncratic moves: ### C1. Analyst / Investor Day - Typical cadence (annual, biannual, ad hoc) - Date of last Investor Day and key announcements made - Whether an Investor Day is expected within the window (positive: management engagement; risk: guidance reset) ### C2. Product Launches & Major Announcements - Known or expected product launches, version releases, or platform announcements - Conference appearances where new product reveals are customary (e.g., Apple WWDC, NVIDIA GTC) - Expected launch dates and potential revenue contribution ### C3. FDA Approvals / Regulatory Decisions *(Biotech & Pharma Only)* - PDUFA dates (FDA action dates) within window - Probability of approval (analyst consensus, prior CRL history) - Binary impact estimates (approval: +X%, rejection: -Y%) - Any advisory committee (AdCom) meetings preceding the decision ### C4. Index Rebalancing Eligibility - Is the stock a candidate for S&P 500, Russell 2000/1000, or MSCI inclusion/exclusion? - Next rebalancing date for relevant indices - Estimated passive fund buying or selling flows upon inclusion/exclusion - Historical index inclusion premium for comparable stocks ### C5. Lock-Up Expiration Dates - Applicable if IPO or secondary offering occurred within last 18 months - Lock-up expiration date and total shares becoming eligible for sale - Insider/sponsor ownership as % of float (higher % = greater overhang risk) - Historical price behavior in the 2–4 weeks surrounding lock-up expirations ### C6. Debt Maturity / Refinancing Windows - Any significant debt maturities within the window - Current credit conditions and refinancing cost vs. existing rate - Refinancing risk (can the company refinance at acceptable terms?) - Relevant if leverage is elevated (Net Debt/EBITDA > 3×) ### C7. Contract Renewals / Government Budget Cycles - Applicable for defense contractors, government IT, healthcare services - Key contract renewal dates and estimated contract value - Government fiscal year-end effects (accelerated spending in Q4 FY = Sep 30) - Continuing resolution or budget uncertainty risk ### C8. Management Conference Presentations - Upcoming presentations at major industry conferences (e.g., JPM Healthcare Conference, CES, Mobile World Congress, Goldman Sachs Communacopia) - Management tone and guidance updates historically provided at these events - Whether management has a history of pre-announcing or guiding at conferences --- ## Section D — Catalyst Impact Scoring Table Synthesize all identified catalysts into a unified scoring table. For each catalyst: | Est. Date | Event | Probability | Bull Impact | Bear Impact | Net Bias | Pre-event Action | |-----------|-------|-------------|-------------|-------------|----------|-----------------| | YYYY-MM-DD | [Event name] | High/Med/Low | +X% | -Y% | Bullish/Bearish/Binary/Neutral | Buy dip before / Reduce ahead / Hold / Hedge | **Scoring Guidance:** - **Probability**: High (>70%), Medium (40–70%), Low (<40%) of the bullish outcome occurring - **Bull Impact**: Expected % upside in the bullish scenario - **Bear Impact**: Expected % downside in the bearish scenario (express as negative) - **Net Bias**: Overall directional lean given probability-weighted outcomes - Bullish: probability-weighted EV clearly positive - Bearish: probability-weighted EV clearly negative - Binary: roughly equal bull/bear outcomes with high magnitude - Neutral: low magnitude or offsetting scenarios - **Pre-event Action**: recommended positioning ahead of the event **Rank catalysts** by absolute expected value (probability × average of |bull| and |bear| impacts) to identify the highest-priority events. --- ## Section E — Event-Driven Strategy Suggestions Translate the catalyst map into actionable playbooks: ### E1. Pre-Event Positioning Playbook - **High beat-rate earnings (>65%)**: Consider initiating or adding to position 10–15 trading days before earnings; scale out 1–2 days before if implied move is elevated (IV crush risk) - **Known positive catalysts (FDA, index inclusion)**: Build position in 4–6 week advance window; use limit orders on any dips - **Macro tailwinds**: Align sector positioning with upcoming FOMC/CPI if macro bias is clear - **Conference presentations**: Monitor for pre-conference guidance updates; light positioning ahead of known presenter history ### E2. Post-Event Reaction Guide - **IV Crush after earnings**: If IVR (Implied Volatility Rank) > 70 heading into earnings, short straddle or iron condor captures elevated premium; exit immediately after event - **Buy the dip on good numbers**: If stock drops despite a beat (typical for high-valuation names), treat as accumulation opportunity within 3 sessions post-earnings - **Sell the rip on binary events**: For FDA decisions or index inclusions, partial profit-taking on the opening gap is prudent — anticipation premium often fully priced in ### E3. Binary Event Hedges - **Protective puts**: For high-probability binary events (FDA decision, regulatory ruling), buy puts 1–2 strikes out-of-the-money, expiring shortly after the event date. Cost: typically 2–5% of position value. - **Collars**: For large existing positions, sell a covered call to finance a protective put — capping upside while limiting downside around the binary event - **Straddle (long)**: When implied move is below historical realized move (options are "cheap"), a long straddle profits from a larger-than-expected move in either direction ### E4. Catalyst Stacking — Convergence Windows - Identify 2-week windows where 2 or more catalysts converge (e.g., earnings + FOMC in same week) - **Stacked bullish catalysts**: If both events lean bullish, the combined setup is high-conviction — size up accordingly - **Stacked binary or offsetting catalysts**: Increased volatility expected; reduce position sizing or hedge both directions - **Catalyst fatigue**: After a string of positive catalysts resolves, upside may be limited until the next catalyst cycle — consider trimming into strength --- ## Section F — 90-Day Catalyst Heat Map Visualize catalyst density across the look-ahead window as an ASCII weekly calendar. Use block shading to indicate event intensity: ``` ░░░ = Low (0–1 minor catalysts) ██ = Medium (1–2 moderate catalysts) ████ = HIGH (3+ catalysts or 1 major binary event) ``` **Example output format:** ``` 90-Day Catalyst Heat Map — [TICKER] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Week 1 (Jun 23 – Jun 27): ░░░ Low — Quiet period Week 2 (Jun 30 – Jul 4): ████ HIGH — Earnings + FOMC Week 3 (Jul 7 – Jul 11): ██ Medium — CPI release Week 4 (Jul 14 – Jul 18): ░░░ Low — Quiet period Week 5 (Jul 21 – Jul 25): ██ Medium — Investor Day Week 6 (Jul 28 – Aug 1): ░░░ Low — Quiet period Week 7 (Aug 4 – Aug 8): ██ Medium — Jobs Report + FOMC minutes Week 8 (Aug 11 – Aug 15): ████ HIGH — FDA PDUFA + CPI Week 9 (Aug 18 – Aug 22): ░░░ Low — Quiet period Week 10 (Aug 25 – Aug 29): ░░░ Low — Quiet period Week 11 (Sep 1 – Sep 5): ██ Medium — Jobs Report Week 12 (Sep 8 – Sep 12): ██ Medium — Conference presentation Week 13 (Sep 15 – Sep 19): ████ HIGH — FOMC + index rebalancing ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Peak Risk Window: Jul 1 – Jul 11 (earnings + macro overlap) Quietest Window: Jul 14 – Jul 25 (low catalyst density, favorable for accumulation) ``` Adjust weeks and labels to match the actual look-ahead window and identified catalysts. --- ## Thesis Invalidation **If catalyst outlook is BULLISH — it breaks if:** - Earnings miss by >10% AND guidance lowered - FOMC surprise rate hike >25bps above consensus - Key product launch delayed >1 quarter - FDA rejection or Complete Response Letter (CRL) issued - Index inclusion candidate excluded from rebalancing **If catalyst outlook is BEARISH — it breaks if:** - Major earnings beat with raised guidance - Positive regulatory surprise (FDA approval, contract win) - Index inclusion announcement - Activist investor disclosure or buyout rumor - Macro surprise (emergency rate cut, strong CPI miss to downside) **Re-run this analysis when:** - [ ] Earnings date confirmed / officially announced by the company - [ ] Major news event changes catalyst timeline (acquisition, spin-off, regulatory action) - [ ] 30 days elapsed (calendar and estimates both update) - [ ] Implied volatility moves >20% from levels at time of this analysis - [ ] Analyst coverage changes materially (new initiations or target price revisions >15%) --- ``` ╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗ ║ INVESTMENT SIGNAL — CATALYST CALENDAR ║ ╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣ ║ Next Catalyst: [EVENT] on [DATE] ║ ║ 30-Day Bias: BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH ║ ║ Catalyst Density: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW ║ ╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣ ║ Highest Impact: [EVENT] — [±X%] expected ║ ║ Risk Window: [DATE RANGE] ║ ╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝ ```