# Scenario Planning

> Scenario Planning

- Skill: `sethdford/scenario-planning` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 2 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add sethdford/scenario-planning`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/sethdford/scenario-planning/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: sethdford (https://skillmd.com/u/sethdford)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/sethdford/scenario-planning

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# Scenario Planning

Prepare for **multiple plausible futures** instead of betting on a single forecast. The payoff is **preparation and flexibility**, not prediction accuracy.

## When to Use
- Long-lead bets; regulatory, macro, or technology uncertainty; capital allocation; resilience planning when a single baseline plan feels fragile.
- Before locking budgets or headcount to one forecast narrative.

## Workflow
**Identify key uncertainties** (forces you cannot control or fully know)—these are inputs, not predictions. **Rank** drivers by **uncertainty** and **impact**. Build a **scenario matrix** from the most consequential uncertainty pairs. Develop **3–4 distinct, plausible scenarios**—not merely best/base/worst, but **genuinely different** futures. For each: write a short **narrative**, list **implications**, **early warning indicators**, and **strategic responses**. **Stress-test** the current plan against every scenario. Favor **robust** moves that perform acceptably across several futures plus **hedges** or **options** where divergence is sharp.

## Examples
**Example 1:** Platform dependency risk → scenarios for policy change, pricing shock, and ecosystem shift; for each, define trigger metrics and a pre-agreed response playbook.

**Example 2:** Only “optimistic” and “pessimistic” GDP paths → replace with structurally different futures (e.g., fragmentation vs consolidation) so strategy isn’t just scaling a single forecast.