# Validate Opportunity

> Test customer, problem, demand, competition, location, and willingness-to-pay assumptions before committing time or money. Use when someone says "I have an idea" or "should I start a business."

- Skill: `simongonzalezdc/validate-opportunity` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add simongonzalezdc/validate-opportunity`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/simongonzalezdc/validate-opportunity/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: simongonzalezdc (https://skillmd.com/u/simongonzalezdc)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/simongonzalezdc/validate-opportunity

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# Validate Opportunity

Stress-test a business idea against reality before spending money on it.

## What this skill tests (in order)

1. **The customer exists**: who specifically buys this? (name a real person, not a demographic)
2. **The problem is real**: what pain does this solve? How do they solve it today?
3. **The demand is measurable**: how many potential customers are within reach?
4. **The competition is known**: who else serves this customer? What is the honest gap?
5. **Willingness to pay**: what would they pay? (test with a pre-sale, a waitlist, or a pop-up)
6. **The venue question**: where will the evidence actually come from? (a rigorous gate with no admissible path is worse than no gate)

## The output

A one-page verdict:
- **PROCEED**: assumptions are credible enough to plan
- **CONDITIONAL**: proceed IF [named conditions] are met first
- **STOP**: the idea does not survive contact with reality, and here is why

## Gate design rules
- **Floors, not AND-gates**: 3-5 metrics with minimum thresholds, not 9 things that must ALL pass
- **One ungameable metric**: third-party POS receipts, not self-reported interest
- **Novelty period excluded**: first 14 days do not count toward primary data
- **Family/friends do not count**: track surname as a % of total (15% or less is healthy)
- **The venue question must be answered BEFORE designing the test**

## What this skill does NOT do
- It does not write a business plan (plan-business)
- It does not size TAM/SAM/SOM (it counts actual walk-bys and real competitors)
- It does not tell you the idea is good (it tells you what evidence supports or contradicts it)