# Financial Analysis > Use when asked for a stock analysis, equity deep dive, company valuation, or investment research on a publicly listed company — including requests to "analyze", "research", "value", or "build a thesis on" a ticker, or to refresh an existing analysis after earnings or a large price move. - Skill: `stmarks99/financial-analysis` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 4 files) - Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add stmarks99/financial-analysis` - Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/stmarks99/financial-analysis/raw - Safety review: pending - Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex - Category: Research & Search - License: MIT - Author: StMarks99 (https://skillmd.com/u/stmarks99) - Updated: 2026-09-17 - Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/stmarks99/financial-analysis --- # Financial Analysis — Hedge-Fund-Grade Equity Deep Dive > **Disclaimer — read before use.** This skill produces educational research > output, not financial advice. Verdicts, entry zones, and position sizes are > analytical exercises generated by a language model from third-party data that > may be wrong, stale, or incomplete. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy > or sell any security. Verify primary filings before acting on anything, and > consult a licensed adviser where appropriate. Use at your own risk. ## Overview A complete bottom-up equity analysis workflow. One run produces **two files**: | File | Content | Template | |---|---|---| | `TICKER.md` | Qualitative thesis: supply chain, operating model, pricing power, customer concentration, management, capital allocation, 12–18 month thesis roadmap (named catalyst + sector triggers + checkpoint schedule), score card | [references/qualitative-template.md](references/qualitative-template.md) | | `TICKER_deep.md` | Quantitative: market snapshot, 4-year financials, Damodaran DCF (bear/base/bull), quant metrics + Piotroski + Altman, Schilit forensics, technicals, Porter's Five Forces, integrated verdict | [references/deep-template.md](references/deep-template.md) | Framework arithmetic (WACC, F-Score, Z-Score variants, Schilit thresholds, Porter scoring) lives in [references/frameworks.md](references/frameworks.md). **Completeness is the point.** Every section in both templates is mandatory. If data is unavailable, write the section anyway and state the limitation — never silently omit it. ## Exit Discipline — the stance this skill takes This skill encodes a **pyramid-on-winners / structural-sell-only** philosophy. If you prefer trimming on valuation or price targets, this skill is not for you — that is a legitimate style; it just isn't this one. 1. Trims and exits are triggered ONLY by **named structural changes to the thesis** — pre-registered invalidators firing, not price behavior. 2. Price-target hits, position-size growth, parabolic patterns, mean-reversion expected-value math, and "valuation looks stretched" are **NOT exit triggers**. A position growing large via thesis playout is the desired outcome of pyramiding, not a violation. 3. Initial-entry size caps apply to **entries**, not to positions that grew. 4. **DO NOT GENERATE** "trim at $X" / "scale to N% by $Y" / stop-ladder exit schedules. If you find yourself writing a price-based exit rule, stop and re-frame it as a structural-sell trigger. 5. Mean-reversion analytics (reverse-DCF reads, negative-EV math) MAY be included as context, flagged **informational — not a decision rule**. The one bounded exception is the 3-key Valuation Backstop defined in the deep template — a partial risk-management de-risk requiring extreme valuation AND a mania cluster AND an oversized position simultaneously. Absent any one key, valuation does nothing. ## Structural-Sell Decision Rule (memorize) Signals are staged: **S1** peak narrative (informational), **S2** supply/cost breakdown, **S3** demand/customer breakdown, **S4** technical (timing only). | Situation | Action | |---|---| | Stage 1 only | INFORMATIONAL — do nothing | | Stage 2 single signal | WATCH — refresh analysis in 30d | | Stage 3 single signal | WATCH — refresh analysis in 30d | | Stage 2 × 2 concurrent | TRIM 25–50% | | Stage 3 × 2 concurrent | TRIM 25–50% | | Stage 2 + Stage 3 concurrent | MANDATORY — trim 50% | | Any 3 concurrent S2/S3 signals | Consider full exit | | Stage 4 alone | DO NOTHING — price is not thesis | S2 and S3 are weighted symmetrically: a single signal of either type is a watch tier; concurrence escalates. **Valuation amplifier:** while the name's valuation tier (MGDV block, deep template §3) is 🟡 Rich or 🔴 Extreme, amplify any structural action one notch — single S2/S3 → TRIM 25–50%; S2+S3 concurrent → full exit. Valuation never fires alone; it only amplifies a real structural signal. **Exception — binary per-name triggers:** the named `L1--N` triggers you write in the deep template are *pre-escalated encodings* of this matrix (persistence and concurrence are built into their definitions, e.g. "ASP falls >15% QoQ for 2 consecutive quarters"). A CONFIRMED binary trigger fires the action stated in its own definition without being re-scored against the single-signal=WATCH row. The matrix governs *raw* signals not yet codified into a name's trigger set. ## Workflow ### Step 0 — Orientation 1. Identify ticker, exchange, and the investment theme it belongs to. 2. Ask the user for (or confirm) the **output directory**; default `./analysis/`. 3. If `/.md` already exists, this is an **update** — read it first. 4. Confirm the **IRR hurdle** for reverse-DCF: default **15%**; use a higher hurdle (e.g. 20%) for emerging-market listings where currency drag and country risk premium justify it. State the hurdle used in the output. ### Step 1 — Data collection (before any writing) Pull quotes, profile, 5y annual + 8q quarterly statements, key TTM metrics, analyst targets, insider trades, and RSI/SMA50/SMA200 — the full list with provider endpoints is in [references/frameworks.md](references/frameworks.md#data-collection). **Dependency:** this skill needs a market-data source (FMP MCP tools, Alpha Vantage, or equivalent). If none is connected, STOP and tell the user which data is needed. With user consent you may proceed from user-supplied figures or filings — label every such number `(user-supplied, unverified)`. **Never invent figures.** ### Step 2 — Write `TICKER.md` Follow [references/qualitative-template.md](references/qualitative-template.md) exactly. ### Step 3 — Write `TICKER_deep.md` Follow [references/deep-template.md](references/deep-template.md) exactly. ### Step 4 — Quality gates Formatting gates: - [ ] Both files at correct paths; every template section present - [ ] DCF shows bear/base/bull with arithmetic, not just outputs - [ ] Piotroski: all 9 signals individually documented - [ ] Schilit: DSO, accrual ratio, OCF/NI explicitly computed - [ ] Porter: all 5 forces individually scored - [ ] Entry zone PRICE RANGES identical between the two files (labels differ by design: §6 "Aggressive Entry" = near-current; verdict "Deep-Value Accumulation" = deepest) Safety gates (these are the ones that matter): - [ ] Thesis Roadmap: structural catalyst named in ONE sentence, or explicitly marked "DIFFUSE" with conviction capped at MEDIUM — never left vague - [ ] Thesis Roadmap: 2–4 sector triggers present, and NONE of them worded as an exit rule — disconfirming triggers feed WATCH/refresh only - [ ] ≥4 named structural-sell triggers, each stage-tagged S2 or S3 - [ ] At least 1 trigger is S3 demand-side (not only supply-side) - [ ] MGDV block populated and valuation tier assigned - [ ] **Zero price-based exit rules anywhere in either file** — grep your own output for "trim at $", "stop at $", "scale out" before declaring done - [ ] Disclaimer note present at the top of BOTH output files ## Red Flags — STOP and re-frame If you catch yourself writing any of these, you are violating the discipline: - "Trim at $X" / "take profits above $Y" / "stop-loss at $Z" as a *rule* - "Position is now N% of the book, consider trimming" — size ≠ signal - "Stock hit the bull-case DCF, de-risk" — a DCF target is not an exit - "Parabolic move, mean-reversion is likely" — that's S4-only, do nothing - "Priced for perfection per reverse-DCF" — informational context only | Rationalization | Reality | |---|---| | "A price ladder is just risk management" | It is a valuation exit with extra steps. Use named structural triggers. | | "This one signal is really strong" | Single S2/S3 = WATCH. Concurrence escalates, conviction doesn't. | | "The user will want profit targets" | The user chose a structural-sell skill. Offer targets only if explicitly asked, labelled informational. | | "Valuation is extreme, surely that's enough" | Alone, it isn't. Backstop needs all 3 keys simultaneously. | ## Common Mistakes - **Writing files before data collection finishes** — partial data produces anchored, wrong numbers. Collect everything first. - **Applying the original Altman Z to non-manufacturers** — use the Z″ variant per frameworks.md; the original mis-scores asset-light and financial names. - **Stale ERP** — look up the current Damodaran US equity risk premium at analysis time; do not reuse a remembered constant. - **Skipping the reverse-DCF when price > bull case** — that is precisely when it is mandatory. - **Copying analyst price targets into the MGDV** — MGDV is fundamentals-only by construction; targets chase price in manias and would disarm the backstop.