# Forecast With Calibration

> Produce an updateable probability or distribution for a resolvable future event using base rates, explicit assumptions, and a declared resolution source. Use when the user asks for a forecast, probability, confidence, or calibration. Do not use to estimate a past causal effect, register an experiment, or critique a present explanation.

- Skill: `sylphxai/forecast-with-calibration` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 2 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add sylphxai/forecast-with-calibration`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/sylphxai/forecast-with-calibration/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: SylphxAI (https://skillmd.com/u/sylphxai)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/sylphxai/forecast-with-calibration

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# Forecast With Calibration

A forecast that cannot resolve is a vibe. Write the event, deadline, resolution source, and ambiguity rule before the number. Start from a relevant base rate; the inside view updates that rate, it does not erase it.

One hit or miss is not calibration. Score a comparable set with a proper scoring rule declared before the outcome. Extreme confidence needs extreme evidence; multiplying dependent sub-events manufactures false precision.

Open [probabilistic forecasting methods](references/probabilistic-forecasting-methods.md) for elicitation, aggregation, scoring, and update cadence.

Use `analyze-causal-inference` for whether a past change caused an outcome. Use `design-product-experiment` when assignment can answer the question. Use `analyze-critically` for confidence in a present explanation.