# Flexibility Analysis > Use when deciding between flexible and non-refundable tickets, or when travel plans might change. Triggers on refundable vs non-refundable, cancel risk, change fee, should I buy flexible ticket. - Skill: `tomevault-io/flexibility-analysis` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 2 files) - Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add tomevault-io/flexibility-analysis` - Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/tomevault-io/flexibility-analysis/raw - Safety review: pending - Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex - Category: Coding & Dev Tools - Author: tomevault-io (https://skillmd.com/u/tomevault-io) - Updated: 2026-09-17 - Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/tomevault-io/flexibility-analysis --- # Flexibility Analysis - Phân Tích Rủi Ro Linh Hoạt ## Purpose Prevent the "$150 savings that costs $720" scenario. When travelers buy non-refundable tickets to save money, they're making an implicit bet that their plans won't change. This skill makes that bet explicit with break-even probability analysis. ## Input Required - `flight_options[]` with fare classes from flight-search - `risk_tolerance` from profile - `schedule_certainty` (user estimate: "How sure are you this trip happens as planned?") - 95-100%: Very certain (confirmed meetings, events) - 80-94%: Likely but could change - 50-79%: Uncertain (tentative plans) - < 50%: Very uncertain ## Execution Steps ### Step 1: Score Each Option (Flexibility Score 0-100) Calculate based on fare rules: ``` flex_score = change_score (0-30) + cancel_score (0-30) + rebooking_score (0-20) + protection_score (0-20) ``` **Change Score (0-30):** - Free unlimited changes: 30 - Free change, fare diff only: 25 - Change with fee < $50: 20 - Change with fee $50-100: 15 - Change with fee $100-200: 10 - Change with high fee (> $200): 5 - No changes allowed: 0 **Cancel Score (0-30):** - Full cash refund: 30 - Full credit voucher (12+ months): 20 - Partial refund (50%+): 15 - Credit voucher (< 12 months): 10 - Cancel fee > 50% of ticket: 5 - Non-refundable, no credit: 0 **Rebooking Score (0-20):** - Same fare class guaranteed: 20 - Subject to availability, same cabin: 15 - Subject to availability, any cabin: 10 - Rebooked on different airline: 5 - No rebooking: 0 **Protection Score (0-20):** - Covered by travel insurance included: 20 - 24-hour free cancellation applies: 10 - Credit card trip protection: 10 - No protection: 0 ### Step 2: Scenario Costing For each option, calculate cost under 3 scenarios: | Scenario | What Happens | Cost | |----------|-------------|------| | **As planned** | Nothing changes | ticket_price | | **Date change ±2 days** | Need to shift by 2 days | change_fee + fare_diff_estimate | | **Full cancellation** | Trip doesn't happen | ticket_price - refund_amount | | **No-show** | Miss the flight | ticket_price (total loss) | Present as table: ``` SCENARIO COSTING: HAN → SFO Saver ($750) Flex ($920) Refundable ($1,100) As planned $750 $920 $1,100 Change ±2 days $750+$100+diff $920+$0+diff $1,100+$0+diff Full cancel $750 → $0 lost $920 → $750 credit $1,100 → $1,050 refund No-show $750 lost $920 lost** $1,100 → $900 credit** ** Some airlines forfeit no-show even on flex tickets ``` ### Step 3: Break-Even Analysis The key calculation: "At what probability of needing to change does the flexible ticket become the better deal?" ``` Formula: premium = flex_price - saver_price loss_if_cancel = saver_price - saver_refund break_even_probability = premium / loss_if_cancel × 100 Example: Saver: $750 (refund: $0) Flex: $920 (refund: $750 credit) Premium: $920 - $750 = $170 Loss if cancel saver: $750 - $0 = $750 Break-even: $170 / $750 = 22.7% → If there's more than a 23% chance your plans change, the Flex ticket is the smarter financial decision. ``` ### Step 4: Hidden Terms Alert Flag terms that travelers often miss: - **Minimum stay**: Some fares require staying minimum 3 nights or including a Saturday - **Blackout dates**: Fare not valid during peak periods - **Credit voucher validity**: Often 12 months from issue date, not from original travel date - **Name change**: Most tickets don't allow name changes (affects corporate rebooking) - **Route restriction**: Credit may only apply to same route - **Fare class on rebooking**: Original fare class may not be available at change time - **No-show penalty**: Even Flex tickets may forfeit value on no-show (must cancel BEFORE departure) ### Step 5: Recommendation Based on break-even analysis + user's schedule_certainty: ``` FLEXIBILITY RECOMMENDATION: Your schedule certainty: 75% (uncertain) Break-even probability: 23% Your implied change probability: 25% (100% - 75%) Since 25% > 23% → BUY THE FLEX TICKET ($920) Expected cost calculation: Saver: 75% × $750 + 25% × $750(lost) = $750 guaranteed, but risk-adjusted: $750 + 25% × $750 = $938 expected cost Flex: $920 guaranteed, with $750 credit if canceled risk-adjusted: 75% × $920 + 25% × $170 = $733 expected cost Flex ticket saves you $205 in expected value. ``` ### Step 6: Output Scorecard ``` FLEXIBILITY SCORECARD Option Price Flex Score Break-even Recommendation Saver Economy $750 15/100 - Only if 95%+ certain Flex Economy $920 65/100 23% ✅ Best for your profile Full Refundable $1,100 95/100 47% Only if < 53% certain Business Flex $2,400 90/100 N/A Overkill for this trip ``` ## Reference Read `references/fare-class-rules.md` for airline-specific fare class breakdown. ## Limitations - Fare difference on rebooking is unpredictable (estimated at ±$50-200) - Break-even assumes binary outcome (trip happens or doesn't) - In reality, partial changes (date shift) have different costs than full cancel - Corporate travel policies may override personal preference --- > Source: [dotanminh/travel-optimization-engine](https://github.com/dotanminh/travel-optimization-engine) — distributed by [TomeVault](https://tomevault.io).