# Forecast Modeling > Use when designing, tuning, or auditing revenue forecast models. - Skill: `tomevault-io/forecast-modeling` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 2 files) - Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add tomevault-io/forecast-modeling` - Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/tomevault-io/forecast-modeling/raw - Safety review: pending (external: skill-scanner PASS, skillspector PASS) - Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex - Category: Marketing & Growth - Author: tomevault-io (https://skillmd.com/u/tomevault-io) - Updated: 2026-09-17 - Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/tomevault-io/forecast-modeling --- # Forecast Modeling System Skill ## When to Use - Launching new forecasting cadences or revisiting methodology. - Running scenario planning ahead of board meetings or budget cycles. - Auditing deviations between forecast, pipeline, and actuals. ## Framework 1. **Method Selection** – pick bottom-up CRM, top-down macro, cohort, or blended models and document assumptions. 2. **Driver Mapping** – define win rates, velocity, expansion, churn, pricing, and seasonality inputs. 3. **Scenario Logic** – establish base/upside/downside cases with tunable levers for sensitivity analysis. 4. **Model Governance** – list data sources, refresh cadence, validation checks, and ownership. 5. **Output Packaging** – standardize tables, charts, and narrative prompts for exec review. ## Templates - Driver tree diagram connecting levers to KPIs. - Scenario sheet (assumption → base/upside/downside values). - Model QA checklist (data freshness, formula audits, version history). ## Tips - Keep raw inputs + assumptions in version control for auditability. - Pair with `variance-analysis` skill to recalibrate after each cycle. - Automate sensitivity runs to answer "what-if" questions during reviews. --- --- > Converted and distributed by [TomeVault](https://tomevault.io/claim/gtmagents) — claim your Tome and manage your conversions.