# Breadth Chart Analyst

> Analyze S&P 500 market breadth charts and CSV data to assess market health, identify trading signals, and generate positioning recommendations for different trader types.

- Skill: `tradermonty/breadth-chart-analyst` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 17 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add tradermonty/breadth-chart-analyst`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/tradermonty/breadth-chart-analyst/raw
- Safety review: PASS (external: skill-scanner PASS, skillspector PASS)
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Research & Search, Data & Analytics, Marketing & Growth, Data Analysis, Data Visualization
- Tags: Chart Analysis, Csv Data, Market Breadth, Positioning Strategy, Sp500, Swing Trading, Trading Signals
- Author: TraderMonty (https://skillmd.com/u/tradermonty)
- Updated: 2026-07-06
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/tradermonty/breadth-chart-analyst

---


# Breadth Chart Analyst

## Overview

This skill enables specialized analysis of two complementary market breadth charts that provide strategic (medium to long-term) and tactical (short-term) market perspectives. Analyze breadth chart images to assess market health, identify trading signals based on backtested strategies, and develop positioning recommendations. All thinking and output are conducted exclusively in English.

## When to Use

Use this skill when:
- User provides S&P 500 Breadth Index (200-Day MA based) chart images for analysis
- User provides US Stock Market Uptrend Stock Ratio chart images for analysis
- User requests market breadth assessment or market health evaluation
- User asks about medium-term strategic positioning based on breadth indicators
- User needs short-term tactical timing signals for swing trading
- User wants combined strategic and tactical market outlook
- **User requests breadth analysis WITHOUT providing chart images** (CSV data mode)

Do NOT use this skill when:
- User asks about individual stock analysis (use `us-stock-analysis` skill instead)
- User needs sector rotation analysis without breadth charts (use `sector-analyst` skill instead)
- User wants news-based market analysis (use `market-news-analyst` skill instead)

## Prerequisites

- **Chart Images Optional**: CSV data from public sources is the PRIMARY data source; chart images provide supplementary visual context
- **No API Keys Required**: CSV data is fetched from public GitHub Pages; no external API subscriptions needed
- **Language**: All analysis and output conducted in English

## Output

This skill generates markdown analysis reports saved to the `reports/` directory:
- Chart 1 only: `breadth_200ma_analysis_[YYYY-MM-DD].md`
- Chart 2 only: `uptrend_ratio_analysis_[YYYY-MM-DD].md`
- Both charts: `breadth_combined_analysis_[YYYY-MM-DD].md`

Reports include executive summaries, current readings, signal identification, scenario analysis with probabilities, and actionable positioning recommendations for different trader types.

## Core Principles

1. **Dual-Timeframe Analysis**: Combine strategic (Chart 1: 200MA Breadth) and tactical (Chart 2: Uptrend Ratio) perspectives
2. **Backtested Strategy Focus**: Apply proven systematic strategies based on historical patterns
3. **Objective Signal Identification**: Focus on clearly defined thresholds, transitions, and markers
4. **English Communication**: Conduct all analysis and generate all reports in English
5. **Actionable Recommendations**: Provide specific positioning guidance for different investor types

## Chart Types and Purposes

### Chart 1: S&P 500 Breadth Index (200-Day MA Based)

**Purpose**: Medium to long-term strategic market positioning

**Key Elements**:
- **8-Day MA (Orange Line)**: Short-term breadth trend, primary entry signal generator
- **200-Day MA (Green Line)**: Long-term breadth trend, primary exit signal generator
- **Red Dashed Line (73%)**: Average peak level - market overheating threshold
- **Blue Dashed Line (23%)**: Average 8MA trough level - extreme oversold, excellent buying opportunity
- **Triangles**:
  - Purple ▼ = 8MA troughs (buy signal when reverses)
  - Blue ▼ = 200MA troughs (major cycle lows)
  - Red ▲ = 200MA peaks (sell signal)
- **Pink Background**: Downtrend periods

**Backtested Strategy**:
- **BUY**: When 8MA reverses from a trough (especially below 23%)
- **SELL**: When 200MA forms a peak (typically near/above 73%)
- **Result**: Historically high performance, avoids bear markets

### Chart 2: US Stock Market - Uptrend Stock Ratio

**Purpose**: Short-term tactical timing and swing trading

**Key Elements**:
- **Uptrend Stock Definition**: Stocks above 200MA/50MA/20MA with positive 1-month performance
- **Green Regions**: Market in uptrend phase
- **Red Regions**: Market in downtrend phase
- **~10% Level (Lower Orange Dashed)**: Short-term bottom, extreme oversold
- **~40% Level (Upper Orange Dashed)**: Short-term top, market overheating

**Swing Trading Strategy**:
- **ENTER LONG**: When color changes from red to green (especially from <10-15% levels)
- **EXIT LONG**: When color changes from green to red (especially from >35-40% levels)
- **Timeframe**: Days to weeks

## Analysis Workflow

### Step 0: Fetch CSV Data (PRIMARY SOURCE - MANDATORY)

**CRITICAL**: CSV data is the PRIMARY source for all Breadth values. This step MUST be executed BEFORE any image analysis.

```bash
python3 skills/breadth-chart-analyst/scripts/fetch_breadth_csv.py
```

**Why CSV is PRIMARY**:
- OpenCV image detection is fragile -- chart format changes cause catastrophic failures (Issue #7)
- CSV provides exact numerical values directly from the data source
- Image analysis is SUPPLEMENTARY only (for visual trend context)

**Data Sources**:
1. **Market Breadth**: `tradermonty.github.io/market-breadth-analysis/market_breadth_data.csv`
   - Provides: 200-Day MA, 8-Day MA, Trend, Dead Cross status
2. **Uptrend Ratio**: `tradermonty/uptrend-dashboard/data/uptrend_ratio_timeseries.csv`
   - Provides: Current ratio, 10MA, slope, trend (UP/DOWN), color (GREEN/RED)
3. **Sector Summary**: `tradermonty/uptrend-dashboard/data/sector_summary.csv`
   - Provides: Per-sector ratio, trend, status (overbought/oversold)

**Data Source Priority**:
| Priority | Source | Use For | Reliability |
|----------|--------|---------|-------------|
| 1 (PRIMARY) | **CSV Data** | All numerical values, dead cross status, color | HIGH |
| 2 (SUPPLEMENTARY) | **Chart Image** | Visual trend context, pattern confirmation | MEDIUM |
| 3 (DEPRECATED) | ~~OpenCV detect_breadth_values.py~~ | ~~Breadth detection~~ | **UNRELIABLE** |
| 4 (LAST RESORT) | ~~LLM visual reading~~ | ~~Emergency only~~ | LOW |

**Expected Output**:
```
============================================================
Breadth Data (CSV) - 2026-02-13
============================================================
--- Market Breadth (S&P 500) ---
200-Day MA: 62.26% (healthy (>=60%))
8-Day MA:   67.56% (healthy_bullish (60-73%))
8MA vs 200MA: +5.30pt (8MA ABOVE -- NO dead cross)
Trend: UPTREND
--- Uptrend Ratio (All Markets) ---
Current: 33.03% GREEN (neutral_bullish)
10MA: 32.65%, Slope: +0.0055, Trend: UP
--- Sector Summary ---
...
============================================================
```

**Validation**: After running CSV fetch, verify:
- [ ] CSV data retrieved successfully
- [ ] 200-Day MA value recorded
- [ ] 8-Day MA value recorded
- [ ] Dead cross status determined (8MA < 200MA = dead cross)
- [ ] Uptrend Ratio value + color + trend recorded
- [ ] Use these CSV values as the authoritative source for all subsequent analysis

---

### Step 1: Receive Chart Images and Prepare Analysis

When the user provides breadth chart images for analysis:

1. Confirm receipt of chart image(s)
2. Identify which chart(s) are provided:
   - Chart 1 only (200MA Breadth)
   - Chart 2 only (Uptrend Ratio)
   - Both charts
3. Note any specific focus areas or questions from the user
4. **CRITICAL: Extract right edge of chart images before analysis** (Step 1.5)

**If NO chart images are provided**: Skip Steps 1, 1.5, and image-based analysis. Use CSV data from Step 0 as the sole data source and proceed directly to the analysis and report generation steps.

**Language Note**: All subsequent thinking, analysis, and output will be in English.

### Step 1.5: Two-Stage Chart Analysis (MANDATORY when charts provided)

**CRITICAL**: Use a **two-stage analysis** approach to prevent misreading historical data as current values.

#### Stage 1: Full Chart Analysis (Historical Context)

First, analyze the FULL chart image to understand:
- Overall historical trend and cycles
- Key historical events (troughs, peaks, recoveries)
- Long-term patterns and context

#### Stage 2: Right Edge Focused Analysis (Current Values)

Then, extract and analyze the **rightmost 25%** of the chart to accurately determine CURRENT values.

**Execute the Python script to extract the right edge:**

```bash
python3 skills/breadth-chart-analyst/scripts/extract_chart_right_edge.py <image_path> --percent 25
```

#### Why Two-Stage Analysis is Mandatory

| Stage | Purpose | What to Extract |
|-------|---------|-----------------|
| **Stage 1 (Full)** | Historical context, trend cycles | Overall patterns, past troughs/peaks |
| **Stage 2 (Right Edge)** | **Current values (CRITICAL)** | 8MA value, 200MA value, current color, current slope |

**Common Error This Prevents:**
- LLM reads 2025 mid-year dip (8MA ~25-30%) instead of current value (8MA ~60-65%)
- By isolating the right edge, the "current" data is unambiguous

#### Analysis Protocol

1. **Read full chart** → Document historical context
2. **Run extraction script** → Generate right edge image
3. **Read right edge image** → Document current values with HIGH CONFIDENCE
4. **Cross-check**: If Stage 1 and Stage 2 values differ significantly, **Stage 2 (right edge) takes precedence**
5. **Report both**: Include Stage 1 context AND Stage 2 current values in analysis

### Step 2: Load Breadth Chart Methodology

Before beginning analysis, read the comprehensive breadth chart methodology:

```
Read: references/breadth_chart_methodology.md
```

This reference contains detailed guidance on:
- Chart 1: 200MA-based breadth index interpretation and strategy
- Chart 2: Uptrend stock ratio interpretation and strategy
- Signal identification and threshold significance
- Strategy rules and risk management
- Combining both charts for optimal decision-making
- Common pitfalls to avoid

### Step 3: Examine Sample Charts (First Time or for Reference)

To understand the chart format and visual elements, review the sample charts included in this skill:

```
View: assets/SP500_Breadth_Index_200MA_8MA.jpeg
View: assets/US_Stock_Market_Uptrend_Ratio.jpeg
```

These samples demonstrate:
- Visual appearance and structure of each chart type
- How signals and thresholds are displayed
- Color coding and marker systems
- Historical patterns and cycles

### Step 4: Analyze Chart 1 (200MA-Based Breadth Index)

If Chart 1 is provided, conduct systematic analysis:

#### 4.1 Extract Current Readings

From the chart image, identify:
- **Current 8MA level** (orange line): Specific percentage
- **Current 200MA level** (green line): Specific percentage
- **8MA slope**: Rising, falling, or flat
- **200MA slope**: Rising, falling, or flat
- **Distance from 73% threshold**: How close to overheating
- **Distance from 23% threshold**: How close to extreme oversold
- **Most recent date** visible on the chart

#### 4.1.5 CRITICAL: Latest Data Point Detailed Trend Analysis

**This step is MANDATORY to avoid misreading recent trend changes.**

**CRITICAL WARNING**: Charts can be deceptive. The MAJORITY of analysis errors occur because the analyst:
1. Confuses the 8MA (orange) with the 200MA (green)
2. Reads historical trends instead of the CURRENT rightmost data points
3. Misidentifies which line is rising vs falling

**BEFORE analyzing trend direction, FIRST confirm line colors**:
- ✓ **8MA = ORANGE line** (fast-moving, more volatile)
- ✓ **200MA = GREEN line** (slow-moving, smoother)
- If unsure which is which, STOP and re-examine the chart legend/colors

Focus intensively on the **rightmost 3-5 data points** of the chart (most recent weeks):

**For 8MA (Orange Line) - Analyze the very latest trajectory**:
1. **Identify the absolute latest position**: Where is the 8MA at the rightmost edge of the chart?
2. **Trace back 3-5 data points** (approximately 3-5 weeks):
   - What was the 8MA level 1 week ago?
   - What was the 8MA level 2 weeks ago?
   - What was the 8MA level 3 weeks ago?
3. **Calculate the directional change**:
   - Is the latest value HIGHER or LOWER than 1 week ago?
   - Is the latest value HIGHER or LOWER than 2 weeks ago?
   - What is the trend: consistently rising, consistently falling, or mixed?
4. **Determine the CURRENT slope** (not historical slope):
   - **Rising**: Latest data point is higher than previous 2-3 points AND shows upward curvature
   - **Falling**: Latest data point is lower than previous 2-3 points AND shows downward curvature
   - **Flat**: Latest data point is approximately equal to previous points (within 2-3%)

**Critical Questions to Answer**:
- [ ] Is the 8MA currently moving UP or DOWN at the rightmost edge?
- [ ] If there was a recent trough, has the 8MA **sustained** the upward move, or has it rolled over?
- [ ] Count consecutive periods of increase: How many consecutive periods has 8MA risen? (Need 2-3 for confirmation)
- [ ] Count consecutive periods of decrease: How many consecutive periods has 8MA fallen? (Indicates failed reversal if declining after trough)

**For 200MA (Green Line) - Analyze the very latest trajectory**:
1. **Identify the absolute latest position**: Where is the 200MA at the rightmost edge?
2. **Trace back 4-6 weeks**:
   - What was the 200MA level 2 weeks ago?
   - What was the 200MA level 4 weeks ago?
3. **Determine the CURRENT slope**:
   - Is it rising, falling, or flat in the most recent period?

**Failed Reversal Detection** (CRITICAL):
If an 8MA trough (purple ▼) was recently identified:
- [ ] Did the 8MA rise for only 1-2 periods and then turn back down?
- [ ] Did the 8MA fail to reach 60% before turning down?
- [ ] Is the 8MA currently declining again after the bounce?
- **If YES to any**: This is a **FAILED REVERSAL** - DO NOT ENTER, signal is INVALID

**Example Analysis Format**:
```
Latest 8MA Data Points (rightmost to left):
- Current (Week 0): 48%
- 1 week ago: 52%
- 2 weeks ago: 55%
- 3 weeks ago: 50%

Analysis: 8MA is FALLING. It rose from 50% to 55% (weeks 3-2), but has since declined to 48%.
This shows a failed reversal pattern - bounce was temporary, downtrend has resumed.
SLOPE: Falling (not rising!)
```

**MANDATORY CROSS-CHECK** (to catch misreadings):
After determining the trend, ask yourself:
- [ ] "If I claimed 8MA is RISING, but it's actually been FALLING for weeks, what would that look like?"
  - Answer: The rightmost data points would be LOWER than previous points (confirming FALLING)
- [ ] "Does my analysis match the visual slope of the orange line at the rightmost edge?"
  - If orange line visually slopes DOWN at the right edge → It's FALLING
  - If orange line visually slopes UP at the right edge → It's RISING
- [ ] "Is there any pink background shading (downtrend) near the rightmost edge?"
  - If YES → This confirms downtrend conditions, 8MA is likely FALLING
- [ ] "Are the 8MA and 200MA converging (getting closer) or diverging?"
  - Converging from below → Potential death cross forming → BEARISH
  - Converging from above → Potential golden cross forming → BULLISH

#### 4.2 Identify Signal Markers

Look for and document:
- **Most recent 8MA trough (purple ▼)**: Date and level
- **Most recent 200MA trough (blue ▼)**: Date and level (if visible in timeframe)
- **Most recent 200MA peak (red ▲)**: Date and level
- **Days/weeks since most recent signals**
- **Any pink background shading** (downtrend periods)

#### 4.3 Assess Market Regime

Based on readings and patterns, classify the current market as:
- Healthy Bull Market
- Overheated Bull Market
- Market Top/Distribution Phase
- Bear Market/Correction
- Capitulation/Extreme Oversold
- Early Recovery

Support the classification with specific evidence from the chart.

#### 4.4 Determine Strategy Position

Apply the backtested strategy rules with STRICT confirmation requirements:

**Check for BUY signal** (ALL criteria must be met):
1. ✓ **Trough Formation**: Has 8MA formed a clear trough (purple ▼)?
2. ✓ **Reversal Initiated**: Has 8MA begun to move upward from the trough?
3. ✓ **Confirmation Achieved**: Has 8MA risen for 2-3 CONSECUTIVE periods after the trough?
4. ✓ **No Recent Reversal**: Based on Step 4.1.5 analysis, is 8MA CURRENTLY rising (not falling)?
5. ✓ **Sustained Move**: Has 8MA maintained the upward trajectory without rolling over?
6. ⭐ **Optional but Strong**: Is 8MA below or near 23% (extreme oversold) at trough?

**BUY Signal Status**:
- **CONFIRMED**: All 5 required criteria met → ENTER LONG
- **DEVELOPING**: Trough formed, but < 2-3 consecutive increases → WAIT, MONITOR
- **FAILED**: Trough formed, but 8MA has rolled over and is declining → DO NOT ENTER, WAIT FOR NEXT TROUGH
- **NO SIGNAL**: No trough formed → WAIT

**Check for SELL signal**:
- Has 200MA formed a peak (red ▲)?
- Is 200MA near or above 73%?
- Is this an active sell signal requiring position exit?

**Current position determination**:
- **Long**: BUY signal confirmed, position entered and held
- **Preparing to Enter**: BUY signal developing (trough formed, watching for confirmation)
- **WAIT / Flat**: No valid signal OR failed reversal detected
- **Preparing to Exit**: SELL signal developing (200MA approaching peak)

#### 4.5 Develop Scenarios

Create 2-3 scenarios with probability estimates:
- Base case scenario (highest probability)
- Alternative scenario(s)
- Each scenario includes: description, supporting factors, strategy implications, key levels

### Step 5: Analyze Chart 2 (Uptrend Stock Ratio)

If Chart 2 is provided, conduct systematic analysis:

#### 5.0 ~~MANDATORY~~ DEPRECATED: Uptrend Ratio Detection Script (Superseded by Step 0 CSV Fetch)

**NOTE (Issue #7)**: This OpenCV detection step is **DEPRECATED**. Use CSV data from Step 0 as the PRIMARY source. The OpenCV script may be run for supplementary validation only, but CSV values take precedence in all cases.

```bash
python3 skills/breadth-chart-analyst/scripts/detect_uptrend_ratio.py <image_path> [--debug]
```

#### 5.1 Extract Current Readings

From the chart image, identify:
- **Current uptrend stock ratio**: Specific percentage
- **Current color**: Green (uptrend) or Red (downtrend)
- **Ratio slope**: Rising, falling, or flat
- **Distance from 10% threshold**: How close to extreme oversold
- **Distance from 40% threshold**: How close to overbought
- **Most recent date** visible on the chart

#### 5.2 Identify Trend Transitions

Look for and document:
- **Most recent red-to-green transition**: Date and ratio level at transition
- **Most recent green-to-red transition**: Date and ratio level at transition
- **Duration of current color phase**: How long in current trend
- **Days/weeks since most recent transition**

#### 5.3 Assess Market Condition

Based on current ratio and color, classify as:
- Extreme Oversold (<10%)
- Moderate Bearish (10-20%, red)
- Neutral/Transitional (20-30%)
- Moderate Bullish (30-37%, green)
- Extreme Overbought (>37-40%)

Support the classification with specific evidence from the chart.

#### 5.4 Determine Trading Position

Apply the swing trading strategy rules:

**Check for ENTER LONG signal**:
- Has color changed from red to green?
- Was the transition from an oversold level (<15%)?
- Is the transition confirmed (2-3 days of green)?

**Check for EXIT LONG signal**:
- Has color changed from green to red?
- Was the transition from an overbought level (>35%)?
- Is momentum weakening?

**Current position**: Long, Flat, Preparing to Enter, or Preparing to Exit

#### 5.5 Develop Scenarios

Create 2-3 scenarios with probability estimates:
- Base case scenario (highest probability)
- Alternative scenario(s)
- Each scenario includes: description, supporting factors, trading implications, key levels

### Step 6: Combined Analysis (When Both Charts Provided)

If both charts are provided, integrate the strategic and tactical perspectives:

#### 6.1 Alignment Assessment

Create a positioning matrix:
- **Chart 1 (Strategic)**: Bullish / Bearish / Neutral + signal status
- **Chart 2 (Tactical)**: Bullish / Bearish / Neutral + signal status
- **Combined Implication**: How do they align or conflict?

#### 6.2 Scenario Classification

Determine which of the four scenarios applies:

**Scenario 1: Both Bullish**
- Chart 1: 8MA rising, 200MA not yet peaked
- Chart 2: Green (uptrend), ratio rising from oversold
- Implication: Maximum bullish stance, aggressive positioning

**Scenario 2: Strategic Bullish, Tactical Bearish**
- Chart 1: 8MA rising, 200MA not yet peaked
- Chart 2: Red (downtrend), ratio falling or elevated
- Implication: Hold core long positions, wait for tactical entry

**Scenario 3: Strategic Bearish, Tactical Bullish**
- Chart 1: 200MA peaked or declining
- Chart 2: Green (uptrend), ratio rising
- Implication: Short-term tactical trades only, tight stops

**Scenario 4: Both Bearish**
- Chart 1: Both MAs declining
- Chart 2: Red (downtrend), ratio falling
- Implication: Defensive positioning, cash or shorts

#### 6.3 Unified Recommendation

Provide integrated positioning guidance for:
- **Long-term investors** (based primarily on Chart 1)
- **Swing traders** (based primarily on Chart 2)
- **Active tactical traders** (based on combination)

Address any conflicts between charts and explain resolution.

### Step 7: Generate Analysis Report in English

Create a comprehensive markdown report using the template structure:

```
Read and use as template: assets/breadth_analysis_template.md
```

**IMPORTANT**: All analysis and output must be in English.

The report structure varies based on which chart(s) are analyzed:

**If Chart 1 only**:
- Executive Summary
- Chart 1 full analysis sections
- Summary and Conclusion
- Omit Chart 2 and Combined Analysis sections

**If Chart 2 only**:
- Executive Summary
- Chart 2 full analysis sections
- Summary and Conclusion
- Omit Chart 1 and Combined Analysis sections

**If Both Charts**:
- Executive Summary
- Chart 1 full analysis sections
- Chart 2 full analysis sections
- Combined Analysis section (mandatory)
- Summary and Conclusion

**File Naming Convention**: Save each analysis as:
- Chart 1 only: `breadth_200ma_analysis_[YYYY-MM-DD].md`
- Chart 2 only: `uptrend_ratio_analysis_[YYYY-MM-DD].md`
- Both charts: `breadth_combined_analysis_[YYYY-MM-DD].md`

### Step 8: Quality Assurance

Before finalizing the report, verify:

1. ✓ **Language**: All content is in English (thinking and output)
2. ✓ **Line Color Verification**: Explicitly confirmed 8MA = ORANGE, 200MA = GREEN before trend analysis
3. ✓ **Latest Data Trend Analysis**: Step 4.1.5 was thoroughly completed - the most recent 3-5 data points were analyzed to determine CURRENT trend direction
4. ✓ **Trend Direction Accuracy**: The stated 8MA slope (Rising/Falling/Flat) accurately reflects the RIGHTMOST data points, not historical movement
5. ✓ **Cross-Check Completed**: MANDATORY CROSS-CHECK questions were answered to confirm trend direction matches visual slope
6. ✓ **Death/Golden Cross Check**: If 8MA and 200MA are converging, explicitly identified whether death cross or golden cross is forming
7. ✓ **Failed Reversal Check**: If a trough was identified, explicitly verified whether the reversal sustained or failed by analyzing latest trajectory
8. ✓ **Specific Values**: All readings include specific percentages/levels, not vague descriptions
9. ✓ **Signal Status**: Clear identification of active signals (CONFIRMED BUY / DEVELOPING / FAILED / SELL / WAIT)
10. ✓ **Strategy Alignment**: Recommendations align with backtested strategies and confirmation requirements
11. ✓ **Probabilities**: Scenario probabilities sum to 100%
12. ✓ **Actionable**: Clear positioning recommendations for different trader types
13. ✓ **Context**: Historical comparison and reference to similar past situations
14. ✓ **Risk Management**: Invalidation levels and risk factors clearly stated

**FINAL SANITY CHECK**:
- [ ] If report claims "BUY signal" or "8MA rising", confirm this doesn't contradict user's chart showing death cross or downtrend
- [ ] If report claims "bullish", confirm there's no pink background shading or death cross visible
- [ ] If unsure about ANY trend direction, explicitly state uncertainty rather than guessing

## Quality Standards

### Objectivity Requirements

- Base all analysis strictly on observable chart data
- Do not incorporate external information (news, fundamentals) unless specifically relevant
- Use precise technical terminology consistently
- Distinguish clearly between factual observations and probabilistic forecasts
- Acknowledge uncertainty when signals are ambiguous

### Completeness Requirements

- Address all relevant sections of the analysis template
- Provide specific numerical values for all key metrics
- Justify probability estimates with technical factors
- Include invalidation levels for each scenario
- Compare current readings to historical patterns visible on the charts

### Clarity Requirements

- Write in professional, analytical English
- Use clear section headings and structure
- Present information in tables where appropriate
- Make recommendations specific and actionable
- Avoid jargon without explanation

### Strategy Adherence Requirements

- Apply backtested strategy rules correctly
- Distinguish between strategic (Chart 1) and tactical (Chart 2) signals
- Provide clear position status (Long/Flat/Entering/Exiting)
- Include specific entry/exit levels when applicable
- Address risk management (stop losses, position sizing)

## Common Analysis Errors and How to Avoid Them

### Error 1: Confusing 8MA with 200MA

**Symptom**: Report claims 8MA is rising when it's actually the 200MA that's rising

**Prevention**:
- ALWAYS verify: 8MA = ORANGE, 200MA = GREEN
- Check line volatility: 8MA moves faster with more volatility
- If unsure, state: "Based on line color, I identify the [orange/green] line as [8MA/200MA]"

### Error 2: Reading Historical Trends Instead of Current Direction

**Symptom**: Report describes what happened 1-2 months ago, not what's happening NOW

**Prevention**:
- Focus ONLY on rightmost 3-5 data points
- Explicitly write: "At the CURRENT rightmost edge, 8MA is at X% and is [rising/falling]"
- Ignore what happened in September if we're analyzing November

### Error 3: Missing Death Cross or Golden Cross Formation

**Symptom**: Report is bullish when 8MA and 200MA are about to death cross (bearish)

**Prevention**:
- ALWAYS check: "Are 8MA and 200MA getting closer (converging) or further apart (diverging)?"
- If converging with 8MA above 200MA → Potential death cross → BEARISH
- If converging with 8MA below 200MA → Potential golden cross → BULLISH
- Explicitly state: "8MA is currently [above/below] 200MA, and they are [converging/diverging]"

### Error 4: Ignoring Pink Background Shading

**Symptom**: Report claims bullish setup when chart shows pink downtrend background

**Prevention**:
- Check for pink shading at the rightmost edge
- Pink background = Downtrend period = Bearish conditions
- If pink shading present, report MUST acknowledge bearish conditions

### Error 5: Claiming Reversal Too Early

**Symptom**: Report says "BUY signal confirmed" after only 1 week of increase

**Prevention**:
- Require 2-3 CONSECUTIVE weeks of 8MA increase for confirmation
- If only 1 week: Signal is "DEVELOPING", not "CONFIRMED"
- If 8MA rises then falls again: Signal is "FAILED", not valid

## Example Usage Scenarios

### Example 1: CSV-Only Analysis (No Charts)

```
User: "breadth分析して" (Analyze breadth)
[No chart images provided]

Breadth Analyst:
1. Executes fetch_breadth_csv.py to get latest CSV data
2. Reads breadth_chart_methodology.md
3. Analyzes CSV data:
   - 200MA: 62.26% (healthy)
   - 8MA: 67.56% (healthy_bullish)
   - 8MA vs 200MA: +5.30pt (NO dead cross)
   - Uptrend Ratio: 33.03% GREEN (neutral_bullish)
   - Sector summary with overbought/oversold sectors
4. Assesses market regime based on CSV values
5. Generates report: breadth_combined_analysis_2026-03-16.md
```

### Example 2: Strategic Breadth Analysis (Chart 1 Only)

```
User: "Please analyze this S&P 500 breadth chart and tell me where we are in the market cycle."
[Provides Chart 1 image: 200MA Breadth Index]

Breadth Analyst (thinking in English):
1. Executes CSV fetch for authoritative numerical values
2. Confirms receipt of Chart 1 (200MA-based breadth index)
3. Reads breadth_chart_methodology.md for Chart 1 guidance
4. Two-stage analysis: full chart → right edge extraction
5. Cross-checks CSV values with chart readings
6. Generates comprehensive report in English
```

### Example 3: Combined Strategic + Tactical Analysis (Both Charts)

```
User: "Analyze both of these breadth charts and give me your overall market view."
[Provides both Chart 1 and Chart 2 images]

Breadth Analyst (thinking in English):
1. Executes CSV fetch as PRIMARY source
2. Confirms receipt of both charts
3. Reads full breadth_chart_methodology.md
4. Two-stage analysis for each chart
5. Cross-checks all values against CSV data
6. Combined assessment and unified recommendation
7. Generates comprehensive combined report
```

## Resources

This skill includes the following bundled resources:

### references/breadth_chart_methodology.md

Comprehensive methodology covering:
- **Chart 1 (200MA Breadth)**: Components, interpretation, market regimes, backtested strategy, analysis checklist
- **Chart 2 (Uptrend Ratio)**: Components, interpretation, market conditions, swing trading strategy, analysis checklist
- **Combined Analysis**: Alignment scenarios, integrated decision-making
- **Common Pitfalls**: Mistakes to avoid for each chart type

**Usage**: Read this file before conducting any breadth chart analysis to ensure systematic, accurate interpretation.

### assets/breadth_analysis_template.md

Structured template for breadth analysis reports in English.

**Usage**: Use this template structure for every analysis report.

### assets/SP500_Breadth_Index_200MA_8MA.jpeg

Sample Chart 1 image for format reference.

### assets/US_Stock_Market_Uptrend_Ratio.jpeg

Sample Chart 2 image for format reference.

### scripts/fetch_breadth_csv.py

**PRIMARY data source**. Fetches market breadth, uptrend ratio, and sector summary data from public CSV sources. Uses only stdlib (urllib + csv) -- no external dependencies.

```bash
python3 skills/breadth-chart-analyst/scripts/fetch_breadth_csv.py        # Human-readable
python3 skills/breadth-chart-analyst/scripts/fetch_breadth_csv.py --json  # JSON output
```

### scripts/extract_chart_right_edge.py

Extracts the rightmost portion of chart images to help focus on latest data points. Requires PIL/Pillow.

```bash
python3 skills/breadth-chart-analyst/scripts/extract_chart_right_edge.py <image_path> --percent 25
```

### scripts/detect_uptrend_ratio.py (DEPRECATED)

OpenCV-based uptrend ratio detection. Superseded by CSV fetch. Requires opencv-python + numpy.

### scripts/detect_breadth_values.py (DEPRECATED)

OpenCV-based breadth value detection. Superseded by CSV fetch. Requires opencv-python + numpy.

## Special Notes

### Language Requirement

**CRITICAL**: All analysis, thinking, and output MUST be in English. This includes:
- Internal analysis and reasoning
- Report generation
- Tables and data presentation
- Scenario descriptions
- Recommendations

Do not translate or use any other language. The user expects English output exclusively.

### Strategy Focus

This skill emphasizes backtested, systematic strategies rather than discretionary interpretation. Always:
- Apply the strategy rules as documented
- Reference historical performance patterns
- Provide specific entry/exit criteria
- Include risk management guidance

### Practical Application

The goal is actionable intelligence. Every analysis should answer:
- **Strategic**: Should I be long, flat, or short the market over the medium term?
- **Tactical**: Should I enter or exit positions in the short term?
- **Timing**: When should I act, and at what levels?
- **Risk**: What would invalidate this view, and where should stops be?