# Opportunity Thesis

> Turn an idea into a founder-grade opportunity thesis. Use for new startup ideas, pivots, market wedges, and idea filtering.

- Skill: `vamfi/opportunity-thesis` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add vamfi/opportunity-thesis`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/vamfi/opportunity-thesis/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: VAMFI (https://skillmd.com/u/vamfi)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/vamfi/opportunity-thesis

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# Opportunity Thesis

Transform the founder's raw idea into a rigorous opportunity memo.

Idea or market: $ARGUMENTS

## Required analysis
- Problem: what painful, expensive, frequent problem exists?
- Customer: who feels it first and most intensely?
- Trigger: what makes this problem urgent right now?
- Existing alternatives: spreadsheets, agencies, manual workarounds, legacy vendors, doing nothing.
- Wedge: what narrow entry point makes adoption possible?
- Value capture: how could this plausibly make money?
- Distribution: how does it reach the first 10 customers?
- Risks: why could this fail even if the problem is real?
- Proof path: what is the cheapest test that reduces uncertainty quickly?

## Output format
### Opportunity score
Score from 1-10 for:
- pain intensity
- urgency
- willingness to pay
- founder fit
- distribution clarity
- speed to first validation

### Thesis
A concise paragraph.

### Ideal first customer
Specific, not generic.

### Wedge offer
What should be sold or tested first.

### Reasons to believe
Evidence or hypotheses that support the idea.

### Reasons to doubt
The strongest objections.

### Fastest validation plan
A 7-day plan with concrete actions.

### Verdict
Choose one:
- pursue now
- park and monitor
- reject
Explain why.