# Trump Truthsocial Catalyst > Decision-support lens for reading Donald Trump's Truth Social posts, @realDonaldTrump X posts, public statements, and disclosed personal holdings as short-term US-stock catalysts — which names or sectors are likely to pop, and how reliably. Use this skill whenever the user asks what a Trump post / statement means for a stock, mentions "特朗普", "Trump post", "Truth Social", "@realDonaldTrump", "POTUS", a Trump endorsement/attack of a company, a tariff / crypto / energy / AI-infra / defense policy signal from Trump, or wants to know which stocks Trump owns or might pump next. Also trigger when evaluating a buy/sell around a Trump headline or building a Trump-catalyst watchlist. Live-fetches the latest public posts first (no local archive). Decision-support only — never auto-trades and never places or cancels orders. - Skill: `yan-labs/trump-truthsocial-catalyst` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 4 files) - Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add yan-labs/trump-truthsocial-catalyst` - Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/yan-labs/trump-truthsocial-catalyst/raw - Safety review: pending - Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex - Category: DevOps & Infra - Author: yan-labs (https://skillmd.com/u/yan-labs) - Updated: 2026-09-17 - Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/yan-labs/trump-truthsocial-catalyst --- # Trump Truth Social Catalyst Lens A reusable lens for turning **Donald Trump's public Truth Social posts**, **@realDonaldTrump X posts**, and **his own disclosed stock holdings** into a short list of US stocks/sectors likely to move, with an honest read on *how reliably* each pattern actually pumps a stock. Built to be paired with a periodic timer that re-fetches and re-scores, accumulating a real hit-rate over time. > **Decision-support lens, NOT financial advice and NOT an auto-trader.** This > only *analyzes publicly available posts and public financial disclosures* to > anticipate market reactions. It never places, cancels, or sizes orders. Always > confirm current price/news yourself — these moves are fast, often fade, and > several are pump-and-fade traps (see `references/track-record.md`). --- ## STEP 0 — ALWAYS REFRESH FIRST (this skill is useless on stale data) Two things go stale: the **skill itself** (the ledger / holdings / calibration in `references/` are grown by a periodic timer and pushed to GitHub) and the **posts** (Trump posts many times a day; a market-moving one can be minutes old, and there is **no local post archive**). Refresh both, in order, before doing anything else: ```bash # 0a. Pull the latest version of this skill (updated ledger, holdings, calibration). # Best-effort: auto-detects project vs global scope. If it fails, keep going. skills update trump-truthsocial-catalyst -y # 0b. Fetch the primary Truth Social archive: text + timestamps + permalinks. # trumpstruth.org is a third-party archive; keep its numeric archive ids as # the canonical ids for the existing ledger. curl -sS -A "Mozilla/5.0" "https://trumpstruth.org/feed" -o /tmp/trump_feed.xml # 0b-alt. Fetch an independent Truth Social archive for freshness checks and # fallback when the primary archive is unavailable. curl -sS -A "Mozilla/5.0" "https://trump.fm/rss/truth.xml" -o /tmp/trump_alt_feed.xml # 0c. Fetch the latest @realDonaldTrump X posts. # The wrapper rejects a successful-but-old xreach timeline and tries an # RSS-Bridge Atom timeline, then the public X profile plus Jina status # fallback. It does not require browser cookies or login state. python3 scripts/fetch_x.py --state data/sync_state.json > /tmp/trump_x.json ``` Then **re-read the refreshed `references/*.md`** (don't rely on a copy you read before 0a) and parse both Truth feeds (see `references/methodology.md` for ready parsers). Use `trumpstruth.org` for the existing `truth:` ledger ids; use `trump.fm` as an independent freshness check and as a fallback capture source. The archive ids identify posts but are not a monotonic time cursor: sort by parsed publication time and use `last_update_time` as the watermark, with the post id only as a dedupe key/tie-breaker. Compare the newest post timestamp and, when available, the official Truth platform id. If both feeds agree, an unchanged newest post is a confirmed `no_new_posts` result, not a fetch failure. If they disagree, mark the primary as stale and preserve both source observations; do not advance the primary cursor from an unverified guess. When a fallback-only item must be logged, use `truthsocial:` plus its canonical Truth permalink and cross-dedupe it against a later `truth:` by normalized text and time. For X, `fetch_x.py` reports `available` for a fresh direct timeline, `available_fallback` for a newer post verified through RSS-Bridge or the public X profile/Jina path, `verified_no_new_posts` when Jina or an authenticated browser profile confirms that the visible top post has not changed, `stale_unverified` with `freshness: exact_status_only` when FxTwitter/VxTwitter can only re-check the saved status, and plain `stale_unverified` when no public path responds. The fallback is a freshness/latest-post check, not a complete historical timeline; never advance `last_tweet_id` from an old direct response or an exact-status-only result. If 0a fails, proceed on the cached skill but note it may be stale; if a source fails (offline / 403 / site down), say so explicitly and use the other Truth feed plus whatever the user pasted — never pretend you have fresh data. The official `truthsocial.com` page/API remains a browser-or-login fallback only when the Cloudflare challenge can be legitimately completed; do not substitute an unverified HTML mirror. --- ## What this lens is for Trump's posts move stocks through a few repeatable mechanisms: he **names a company favorably**, **announces or hints at policy he controls** (tariffs, contracts, executive orders), or **champions a theme** (crypto, energy, AI infrastructure, defense, reshoring). The edge is recognizing *which* features of a post reliably pump a stock versus which produce a one-day spike that fades — and cross-referencing against **what he personally owns**, because "he owns it → he boosts it → a government tailwind follows" is his single most repeatable money-making pattern (the Dell playbook). This is explicitly a *short-horizon catalyst* lens, not a fundamentals lens. The biggest caveat in the whole skill: **his posts can pump a stock that is a terrible long-term hold** — his own DJT is down ~77% from its 2024 high and his memecoins are down 97–99%, yet they still spike when he posts. Separate "will it pop this week" from "is it a good investment." --- ## How the reference files are organized Read progressively — pull in only what the task needs. | File | What it is | Read it when | |---|---|---| | `references/methodology.md` | The tiered "what reliably pumps a stock" playbook: Tier 1–3 patterns, amplifier features, anti-patterns, durability, a per-post classification checklist, and Truth Social / X fetch-parse recipes | Classifying any post, or judging how strong a signal is | | `references/theme-ticker-map.md` | Trump's recurring themes → the tickers/sectors that typically react | Mapping a topic (tariffs, crypto, energy, AI infra, defense…) to tradable names | | `references/holdings-watchlist.md` | Companies Trump's trust disclosed buying in 2026 + his personal/family holdings, flagged for "not-yet-popped" breakout potential; includes the official OGE search/API source for updates | Building a watchlist, or asking "what does he own / what might pop next" | | `references/track-record.md` | The accumulating hit-rate ledger (seeded with documented wins and failures) + a calibration note on what actually has edge | Deciding *how much to weight* a given pattern; this is what the timer grows | | `references/x-source-notes.md` | @realDonaldTrump X source behavior, cross-source dedupe notes, and historical X seed candidates | When using or maintaining the X source | | `references/maintenance.md` | Rules for the periodic timer: fetch → dedupe → classify → log prediction → score outcome → recalibrate | Running or wiring up the scheduled refresh | --- ## Workflows ### (a) Read one post (or a batch) for tradable signals 1. **Refresh** (Step 0). Identify the newest Truth Social and X posts; dedupe against anything already in `references/track-record.md` by source id and cross-source normalized text/time. 2. For each post, run the **classification checklist** in `references/methodology.md`: is it market-relevant? Which Tier (1 named-stock / 2 policy-sector / 3 macro)? Which amplifier features are present (named public company, explicit "BUY", policy he controls, he personally owns it, posted intraday, repeated)? 3. Map topic → candidate tickers via `references/theme-ticker-map.md`, and check `references/holdings-watchlist.md` for an ownership overlap (raises conviction). 4. Output, per signal: the post (date + permalink), the implicated ticker(s), **direction**, a **reliability tier**, expected **magnitude & durability** (intraday-fade vs. can-hold), and what would invalidate it. 5. Weight using `references/track-record.md` — favor patterns with a real accumulated hit-rate over plausible-sounding one-offs. Always frame as analysis, never as an order. ### (b) Build / refresh a Trump-catalyst watchlist 1. Pull his disclosed holdings from `references/holdings-watchlist.md`. If the question depends on freshness, check the OGE source listed there for newer `Trump, Donald J` 278-T PDFs before treating the watchlist as current. 2. Bucket: **already popped** (Dell-style, catalyst spent) vs. **owns-but-quiet** (breakout candidates if the Dell template repeats: ownership + an admin tailwind like a contract, tariff carve-out, or public praise). 3. For each quiet name, note the *specific* catalyst that would trigger it and a rough 1–2 month watch window. Keep it advisory. ### (c) Judge a single "will this pump X?" question 1. Refresh, find the relevant post(s). 2. Score the pattern against `references/methodology.md` tiers + amplifiers and the historical analogs in `references/track-record.md`. 3. Give a calibrated answer: likely direction, reliability, magnitude, durability, and the honest base-rate (e.g., "named-company endorsements pop reliably intraday; crypto-reserve posts spike then fade next day"). --- ## Risk & disclaimer framing (state this when giving any view) - **Short-horizon catalyst, not a thesis.** A pop is not a reason to hold. His own assets (DJT, $TRUMP, $MELANIA) show posts can pump structurally weak names. - **Many signals fade fast.** Crypto-reserve and tariff-relief posts often spike for a day and give it back; size and timing matter, and this skill does not set either — the user does. - **Conflict-of-interest is a feature of the data, not an endorsement.** He has bought stocks (Dell, Palantir, Nvidia, media names) that his administration then affected. We note the overlap as a *signal*, while flagging the obvious manipulation/legal scrutiny around it. Do not act illegally on it. - **Disclosures are ranges and self-reported.** Holding figures come from OGE periodic transaction reports (dollar *ranges*, not exact amounts) and may lag. - **This is a lens, not a signal feed.** It surfaces better questions about a Trump headline. It is NOT auto-trading, NOT a recommendation, NOT financial advice. Every order is the reader's own manual, confirmed decision.