# Earnings Preview > Pre-earnings setup for any listed company ahead of a quarterly, half-year, or full-year result. Builds a structured decision framework: consensus estimates, bull/base/bear scenarios, key metrics to watch, thesis pillar checklist, and historical stock reaction context. Pairs with earnings-analysis (post-print verdict) and thesis-tracker (pillar updates). Covers US (NYSE/NASDAQ) and AU (ASX) markets. Triggers on: "earnings preview", "what should I watch for [company] earnings", "pre-earnings", "earnings setup", "preview Q[X] for [company]", "prepare me for [company] results", "what's consensus for [company]", "[company] reports [date], what do I need to know", "earnings preview for [ticker]", or any request to prepare ahead of an upcoming earnings release. - Skill: `yeshelloab/earnings-preview` (Agent Skill) - Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add yeshelloab/earnings-preview` - Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/yeshelloab/earnings-preview/raw - Safety review: pending - Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex - Category: Coding & Dev Tools - Author: yeshelloAB (https://skillmd.com/u/yeshelloab) - Updated: 2026-09-17 - Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/yeshelloab/earnings-preview --- # Earnings Preview ## Role You prepare the investor to enter an earnings event with a structured position: what consensus expects, what the thesis requires, what scenarios are plausible, and what specific metrics will determine whether conviction rises or falls after the print. This is a decision framework built before the result, not a prediction, and not a research report. Its job is to eliminate noise so the investor can assess the actual print quickly when it drops. The output from this skill feeds directly into earnings-analysis. When running the post-print review, reference this preview document. --- ## Step 0: Calibrate Depth | Mode | Trigger | Output | |------|---------|--------| | **Quick** | "just the key numbers", "brief", "what's consensus" | Consensus table + 3 key metrics | | **Full** *(default)* | No modifier, or any mention of thesis / positioning | All steps | --- ## Step 1: Confirm Inputs 1. Company and ticker (include exchange suffix for ASX: e.g. WDS.AX) 2. Reporting period: Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 or H1/H2/FY and fiscal year 3. Earnings date and time: confirm via web search. For AU: note pre-market (ASX open) or post-close (after 4pm AEST) 4. Existing thesis: check Theses folder for `[TICKER]-thesis.md`. Load if found. 5. Position: held (long), watchlist, or none Then proceed. Do not ask for anything else. --- ## Step 2: Consensus Snapshot Pull via web search. For US: Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, company IR. For ASX: CommSec, ASX announcements, company IR. Note analyst count: thin coverage (1-3 analysts) means higher surprise potential and a wider confidence interval. **Company:** [Name] ([TICKER]) **Reporting period:** [Q/H/FY] [Year] **Earnings date:** [Day DD Mon YYYY, Time] **Analysts covering:** [X] | Metric | Consensus | Prior Period Actual | YoY Change | Estimate Range (High / Low) | |--------|-----------|--------------------|-----------|-----------------------------| | Revenue | | | | | | EBITDA / Operating Profit | | | | | | NPAT / EPS | | | | | | Gross Margin | | | | | | [Key sector metric 1] | | | | | | [Key sector metric 2] | | | | | | Forward guidance | N/A (wait for result) |: |: |: | A wide estimate range signals high uncertainty: flag this as it implies a larger potential price move. --- ## Step 3: Key Metrics Framework Identify the 3-5 metrics that will actually move this stock on results day: often not the headline figures. State why each matters right now. For each metric: - **Metric:** [Name and expected value or direction] - **Why it matters this print:** [1 sentence] - **Threshold:** [What level / direction is positive vs. concerning] Common sector-specific metrics: - **Technology / SaaS:** ARR growth, net revenue retention, RPO, operating leverage - **Resources / Mining (ASX):** Realised prices vs. spot, production volumes vs. guidance, AISC, capex vs. budget - **Banks / Financials:** NIM direction, credit quality, loan growth, cost-to-income - **Healthcare:** Script volumes, pipeline updates, reimbursement decisions - **Industrials:** Backlog, book-to-bill, price vs. volume mix - **Retail:** Same-store sales, gross margin, inventory levels --- ## Step 4: Scenario Framework | Scenario | Probability | Revenue vs. Consensus | EPS vs. Consensus | Key Driver | Expected Stock Reaction | |----------|------------|----------------------|-------------------|-----------|------------------------| | Bull | [%] | [+X%] | [+X%] | [What drives it] | [+X% to +X%] | | Base | [%] | [~flat] | [~flat] | [In-line, guidance intact] | [Range] | | Bear | [%] | [-X%] | [-X%] | [What drives it] | [-X% to -X%] | Probabilities must sum to 100%. For each scenario, name the **confirmation signal**: the single piece of evidence in the result or commentary that immediately tells you which scenario has played out. --- ## Step 5: Historical Reaction Context How has this stock moved on the last 3-4 prints? | Period | Beat / Miss / In-line | Revenue | EPS | Guidance | Stock Day-1 Move | |--------|-----------------------|---------|-----|----------|------------------| | [Q/H/FY Year] | | | | | | Note any pattern: does this stock reward beats, or is it guidance-dependent? Source via web search. --- ## Step 6: Thesis Pillar Checklist (only if thesis file exists) | Pillar | What the Print Will Show | Confirmation Signal | Concern Signal | |--------|------------------------|--------------------|----| | [Pillar name] | [Specific metric or disclosure] | [What confirms it's intact] | [What challenges it] | Work through this table live when the result drops: note ✅/⚠️/❌ next to each pillar. Then hand these notes to earnings-analysis for the post-print verdict. If no thesis file exists, flag this and suggest running thesis-tracker after the result. --- ## Step 7: Output **Quick mode:** Consensus table + three key metrics. Inline only, no file. **Full mode:** 1. Deliver inline: lead with earnings date and key metrics (most time-sensitive), then scenarios, then pillar checklist. 2. Save to the user's workspace folder: `Stock Strategy/Stock Investment Analysis/Earnings-Previews/[TICKER]-[Period]-preview.md` (or equivalent) 3. Confirm file saved and path. 4. Note: when the result drops, run earnings-analysis and reference this preview file. --- ## Important Notes - For ASX companies: results land on the ASX platform at market open (10am AEST) or after close (4pm AEST). The ASX announcements page is the primary source. - For small/mid-cap ASX stocks with 1-3 analysts, a "beat" or "miss" vs. thin consensus is less meaningful than for large-caps. Note this explicitly. - Guidance language matters for AU companies: watch for phrasing shifts: "in line", "towards the top of the range", "subject to market conditions". - This skill pairs with: thesis-tracker (pillar source), catalyst-calendar (scheduled trigger), earnings-analysis (post-print handoff), and stock-institutional (for institutional investors: reassess the active weight recommendation after a material earnings event confirms or challenges the fundamental verdict). --- > **Chaining note:** `stock-institutional` is planned for a future release of this repository. > The earnings workflow in this repo is complete without it.