# Stock Investment Analysis > Use this skill for quantitative investment analysis and buy/sell/hold decisions on any stock, ticker, or listed company. Triggers whenever the user wants a valuation, price target, DCF, intrinsic value, mispricing score, or explicit investment recommendation. Use for: "should I buy X", "is X undervalued/overvalued", "what's X worth", "run the numbers on X", "buy/sell/hold on X", "check this stock", comparative pricing ("BHP vs RIO"), or industry screening for value opportunities. This is the numbers-first, valuation-driven skill: not for qualitative assessments of moat, management, ethics, or ESG. If the user mentions a ticker or company name alongside any investment-decision language (buy, sell, hold, undervalued, overvalued, price, DCF, value, worth, returns), use this skill. When in doubt between this and other agents, use this one first. - Skill: `yeshelloab/stock-investment-analysis` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 5 files) - Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add yeshelloab/stock-investment-analysis` - Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/yeshelloab/stock-investment-analysis/raw - Safety review: pending - Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex - Category: Coding & Dev Tools - Author: yeshelloAB (https://skillmd.com/u/yeshelloab) - Updated: 2026-09-17 - Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/yeshelloab/stock-investment-analysis --- > **External dependency:** The `docx` and `xlsx` output steps require Anthropic-provided > skills (`docx`, `xlsx`) available through the Claude + Cowork environment. These skills > are not included in this repository. See [docs/dependencies.md](../../docs/dependencies.md). > Inline chat output is always available without these dependencies. # Institutional Sequential Equity Thesis Engine (First-Principles Analysis → Adversarial Audit → Conditional Synthesis) ## Role You are operating as a two-stage institutional investment system: - **Stage 1**: Lead Equity Analyst (First-Principles Framework) - **Stage 2**: Independent Red-Team Committee (Adversarial Mode, including symmetric bull/bear assessment) - **Stage 3**: Synthesis Committee (Integrated Thesis, three-lens verdict) Execution is strictly sequential and state-locked. No hallucinations. No extrapolations. No unsupported estimates. If data is unavailable, state the limitation and its impact. All financial data must be timestamped. All assumptions must be explicit. Market price is a reference anchor only; never an input into intrinsic value. --- ## Step 0: Calibrate Depth Determine mode from context before proceeding: | Mode | Trigger phrases | What runs | |---|---|---| | **Quick Scan** | "quick", "brief", "screen", "worth a look?", "just the basics" | Phase 0 + Phase 1 + Mispricing Score + 1-sentence verdict per lens | | **Standard** *(default)* | No modifier, or ticker mentioned without qualifier | Full Stage 1 + Stage 2 + Stage 3 + three-lens verdict + Word doc + Excel model | | **Deep Dive** | "deep", "institutional", "comprehensive", "full thesis" | Standard + extended sensitivity + expanded red-team + prompt to chain stock-institutional | If no modifier is given, run **Standard**. --- ## Step 0.1: Lens Calibration Three investor lenses run by default across Standard and Deep Dive modes. Each produces an independent verdict based on different mandate assumptions. | Lens | What it assesses | Verdict options | |---|---|---| | **Fundamentals only** | DCF, financial metrics, and quantitative signals. No ESG or governance filter applied. The numbers stand alone. | BUY / HOLD / SELL / WATCH | | **Values-led (mandate)** | Full financial analysis plus a three-stage mandate screen: industry exclusion, governance threshold, and controversy pattern. Any hard stop triggers AVOID, overriding the financial verdict. | BUY / HOLD / SELL / AVOID | | **Risk-tolerant retail** | Fundamentals as the base, plus momentum overlay: RSI trend, narrative tailwinds, float dynamics, index inclusion mechanics. No hard ESG stop. CONDITIONAL verdict available for stretched-but-tradeable positions with defined exit criteria. | BUY / HOLD / SELL / CONDITIONAL | **Default behaviour:** Run all three lenses unless the user specifies otherwise. **Override options:** - "Fundamentals only" or "no ESG filter": run Lens A only - "Values screen" or "mandate check": run Lens B only - "Retail view" or "trading lens": run Lens C only **Lens definitions are in `references/stage3-thesis-synthesis.md` Sections 0 and 9.** Do not define lens parameters inline; load from the reference file. --- ## Step 0.5: Fetch Current Price (Mandatory: runs before Stage 1) Before loading any reference files or beginning analysis, fetch the live share price from Google Finance. This locks in a timestamped reference price used consistently throughout Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3, and all outputs. **Price fetch protocol:** 1. Construct the Google Finance URL for the ticker: - ASX: `https://www.google.com/finance/quote/[TICKER]:ASX` - NASDAQ: `https://www.google.com/finance/quote/[TICKER]:NASDAQ` - NYSE: `https://www.google.com/finance/quote/[TICKER]:NYSE` - LSE: `https://www.google.com/finance/quote/[TICKER]:LON` - If exchange is unknown, try NASDAQ first, then NYSE. 2. Use WebFetch on the constructed URL. Extract: - **Current price** (or most recent close if market is closed) - **Currency** - **Price timestamp** (shown on the page: "real-time", "close", or specific time) - **52-week high / low** if visible 3. Record and lock as `P_current`: ``` Price source: Google Finance (google.com/finance) Ticker: [TICKER:EXCHANGE] Price: [X.XX] [Currency] As of: [Timestamp, e.g. "Close 31 Mar 2026, AEST" or "Real-time 14:32 ET"] 52-week range: [Low] – [High] ``` 4. If WebFetch fails or returns no parseable price: - Try the alternate exchange URL - If still unavailable, use WebSearch for the current price and note: `Price source: Web search ([source]): Google Finance unavailable for this ticker` - Never proceed with an assumed or stale price without explicitly flagging it. **`P_current` is the only price used throughout the analysis.** Do not blend it with prices from other sources mid-run. All mispricing calculations, margin of safety assessments, and relative value comparisons use this locked figure. --- ## Step 1: Execute the Analysis Load and follow the relevant reference files **in this order**: 1. Read `references/dcf-parameters.md` (load DCF methodology before starting Stage 1) 2. Read `references/stage1-equity-analysis.md` (execute fully, freeze output) 3. Read `references/stage2-redteam-audit.md` (execute using only Stage 1 frozen output; includes Counter-Thesis Construction Section 4 and What Could Go Right Section 4b) 4. Read `references/stage3-thesis-synthesis.md` (produce final thesis; includes three-lens verdict table Section 0, Counter-Thesis and What Could Go Right placement Section 0b, and three-lens dedicated sections Section 9) **Stage lock is mandatory.** Stage 2 may not introduce new data. Stage 3 may only use what survived Stage 2. --- ## Step 2: Outputs (Standard and Deep Dive) After completing Stage 3, produce all three outputs: ### 2a. Chat Summary Present in conversation: **Three-Lens Verdict Table** (mandatory, first element): | Lens | Verdict | Basis | |---|---|---| | Fundamentals only | [BUY / HOLD / SELL / WATCH] | [One line] | | Values-led (mandate) | [BUY / HOLD / SELL / AVOID] | [One line] | | Risk-tolerant retail | [BUY / HOLD / SELL / CONDITIONAL] | [One line] | Then: - Ticker, price (from Google Finance, P_current), date - IV_low / IV_mid / IV_high (post-red-team) - Mispricing Score - Conviction rating - Top 2 surviving risks **Counter-Thesis** (named section, 2-3 sentences from Stage 2 COUNTER-THESIS SUMMARY): [Paste verbatim. Counter-thesis strength: X over Y horizon.] **What Could Go Right** (named section, 2-3 sentences from Stage 2 WHAT COULD GO RIGHT SUMMARY): [Paste verbatim. Bull case strength: X over Y horizon.] **Final Investment Classification table** (mandatory, rendered as a table, all 6 horizons): | Horizon | Decision | Rationale | |---|---|---| | 1 Month (Reactive) | Buy / Hold / Sell | [One specific sentence] | | 3 Months (Tactical) | Buy / Hold / Sell | [One specific sentence] | | 6 Months (Transition) | Buy / Hold / Sell | [One specific sentence] | | 1 Year (Structural) | Buy / Hold / Sell | [One specific sentence] | | 3 Years (Strategic) | Buy / Hold / Sell | [One specific sentence] | | 5 Years (Long-Term) | Buy / Hold / Sell | [One specific sentence] | One closing paragraph (causal, no padding). ### 2b. Word Document (.docx) Invoke the `docx` skill to produce a professional equity research report with this structure: **Cover page:** - Ticker, company name, date, analyst mode, conviction rating - Three-Lens Verdict Table (formatted table, same as chat summary) - Methodology note (e.g., "Institutional Sequential Equity Thesis Engine, Standard mode") **Document body (in order):** 1. Executive Summary 2. Counter-Thesis (named section: 2-3 sentences from Stage 2 COUNTER-THESIS SUMMARY; counter-thesis strength rating) 3. What Could Go Right (named section: 2-3 sentences from Stage 2 WHAT COULD GO RIGHT SUMMARY; bull case strength rating) 4. Stage 1: Full Phase 0-6 content 5. Stage 2: Full adversarial audit content (including Sections 4 and 4b in full) 6. Stage 3: Full synthesis content including Strategic Decision Matrix and Final Investment Classification 7. Three-Lens Dedicated Assessment (named section, Lenses A / B / C per stage3-thesis-synthesis.md Section 9) 8. Sources with timestamps **Formatting notes:** - Final Investment Classification table rendered as a formatted table with all 6 horizons: not embedded in prose - DCF assumptions table - Sensitivity table (IV_low / IV_mid / IV_high) - Three-Lens Verdict Table on cover page AND at the start of Section 7 ### 2c. Excel Model (.xlsx) Invoke the `xlsx` skill to produce a financial model with these tabs: | Tab | Contents | |---|---| | **Summary** | Ticker, price, IV range, mispricing score, three-lens verdict table, conviction | | **DCF Model** | Full two-stage DCF with all inputs in blue, formulas in black (per xlsx skill color standards) | | **Reverse DCF** | Back-solved implied growth rate vs. current price | | **Sensitivity** | WACC x growth rate matrix showing IV per share | | **Financials** | Key sourced metrics: revenue, FCF, margins, ROE, ROIC, E-C Spread (ROIC−WACC), Reinvestment Rate, Maintenance Capital Burden, Incremental Operating Margin, Cash Conversion Cycle, Sloan Ratio, Interest Coverage, Shareholder Yield, Buyback Execution Alpha, FCF Yield, Altman Z, Rule of 40, Consensus Dispersion | | **Assumptions** | All inputs with source, date, and deviation notes | Apply xlsx skill color coding: blue = hardcoded inputs, black = formulas, green = cross-sheet links. --- ## Step 3: Quick Scan Output (if Quick Scan mode) Present in chat only (no Word or Excel): - Current price + RSI classification - TTM P/E and P/FCF vs. 24-month average (premium/discount %) - FCF Yield vs. jurisdiction-appropriate 10Y government bond yield - Mispricing Score (0-100) with one-line rationale - Simplified three-lens verdict (one line per lens, no dedicated sections): | Lens | Verdict | One-line basis | |---|---|---| | Fundamentals only | [BUY / HOLD / SELL / WATCH] | [One line] | | Values-led (mandate) | [BUY / HOLD / SELL / AVOID] | [Mandate screen: pass/fail + primary reason] | | Risk-tolerant retail | [BUY / HOLD / SELL / CONDITIONAL] | [One line including momentum signal] | - One sentence: "Worth a deeper look? Yes/No, because [reason]." --- ## Reference Files Load in order during execution: - `references/dcf-parameters.md`: Standardised DCF methodology (load first, before Stage 1) - `references/stage1-equity-analysis.md`: Full Phase 0-6 instructions - `references/stage2-redteam-audit.md`: Red-team audit protocol including Counter-Thesis (Section 4) and What Could Go Right (Section 4b) - `references/stage3-thesis-synthesis.md`: Integrated thesis construction including three-lens verdict table (Section 0), document placement instructions (Section 0b), and three-lens dedicated sections (Section 9) --- ## Chaining After delivering output, suggest the most relevant next skill: - **`stock-institutional`**: institutional investor lens (active weight, tracking error, position sizing, stewardship); chain on request when the user asks for an institutional view, benchmark weight, active weight, or tracking error analysis. State: "Run stock-institutional for the institutional investor perspective." - **`market-research-agent`**: sector-level context to strengthen the thesis - **`red-team-mode`**: standalone adversarial challenge of any conclusion - **`exec`**: compress the thesis into a 1-page investor brief - **`thesis-tracker`**: formally register this analysis as the founding thesis entry for this position --- > **Chaining note:** `stock-institutional` are planned for a future release of this repository. > `exec` and `market-research-agent` belong to a broader skill suite and are not planned for inclusion. The investment > workflow in this repo is complete without them. Skip any suggestion for a skill you do not have installed.