# Narrative Scenario

> What is the story of each future? — Shell method narrative construction for rich qualitative scenario understanding

- Skill: `yogsoth-ai/narrative-scenario` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 2 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add yogsoth-ai/narrative-scenario`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/yogsoth-ai/narrative-scenario/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: yogsoth-ai (https://skillmd.com/u/yogsoth-ai)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/yogsoth-ai/narrative-scenario

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# Strategy: Narrative Scenario

## Methodology

Shell Scenario Method (Wack/van der Heijden). Construct rich, internally consistent narratives that illuminate qualitatively different futures. Focus on storytelling that reveals causal mechanisms and decision points rather than exhaustive enumeration.

Key principles:
- **Narrative coherence**: Each scenario tells a believable story with cause-and-effect logic
- **Divergence**: Scenarios must be qualitatively different, not variations on a theme
- **Decision relevance**: Scenarios illuminate choices the research team faces
- **Memorable framing**: Each scenario gets a vivid name that captures its essence

## Execution Flow

1. **Identify drivers** → spawn `scenario-driver-identification`
   - Input: research context, planning horizon
   - Output: key uncertainty drivers ranked by impact × uncertainty

2. **Select axes** → identify the 2 highest-impact, highest-uncertainty drivers as scenario axes
   - Creates a 2×2 matrix of four qualitatively different futures

3. **Construct narratives** → spawn `scenario-narrative-construction` (×4)
   - Input: axis position, driver context, research approach
   - Output: rich narrative per quadrant

4. **Assess impact** → spawn `scenario-impact-assessment` (×4)
   - Input: scenario narrative, research approach
   - Output: impact analysis per scenario

5. **Score robustness** → spawn `robustness-scoring`
   - Input: all impact assessments
   - Output: robustness index

6. **Synthesize** → spawn `scenario-synthesis`
   - Input: all scenarios, robustness scores
   - Output: final report with strategic implications

## Budget Gate

| Step | Token Budget | Notes |
|------|-------------|-------|
| Driver identification | 8K | PESTEL scan |
| Axis selection | 4K | Ranking and selection |
| Narrative construction | 15K × 4 | Rich storytelling |
| Impact assessment | 10K × 4 | Per scenario |
| Robustness scoring | 8K | Aggregation |
| Synthesis | 12K | Final compilation |

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## Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| Tactic | When to use |
| --- | --- |
| cross-consistency-filtering | Orchestrates pairwise consistency evaluation and narrative construction to filter the morphological field |
| strategy-robustness-testing | Orchestrates impact assessment and robustness scoring to evaluate research approach resilience across scenarios |

## Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| SOP | When to use |
| --- | --- |
| robustness-scoring | Compute robustness index across scenarios with sensitivity analysis |
| scenario-driver-identification | Identify key uncertainty drivers using PESTEL framework scanning |
| scenario-impact-assessment | Assess each scenario's impact on the research approach across multiple dimensions |
| scenario-narrative-construction | Build rich narratives for surviving morphological configurations using Shell method |
| scenario-synthesis | Comprehensive scenario analysis report synthesizing all scenario work |

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