# Progress Quantification

> Track performance progress over time, quantify remaining headroom — 30 methods, 100 data points, 40 web searches budget

- Skill: `yogsoth-ai/progress-quantification` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add yogsoth-ai/progress-quantification`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/yogsoth-ai/progress-quantification/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Finance & Business, Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: yogsoth-ai (https://skillmd.com/u/yogsoth-ai)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/yogsoth-ai/progress-quantification

---


# Progress Quantification


## Purpose

Construct temporal performance trajectories for the target task. Fit progress curves, identify inflection points (paradigm shifts), estimate theoretical/practical ceilings, and quantify remaining headroom. Produces actionable intelligence about where the field is plateauing and where breakthroughs are needed.

## Budget

| Resource | Floor | Target |
|----------|-------|--------|
| Methods tracked | 20 | 30 |
| Historical data points | 70 | 100 |
| Web searches | 25 | 40 |
| Time span covered (years) | 3 | 5+ |

## State Ledger

```
<HARD-GATE>
| Metric | Current | Target | Status |
|--------|---------|--------|--------|
| Methods tracked | 0 | 30 | BLOCKED |
| Historical data points | 0 | 100 | BLOCKED |
| Web searches used | 0 | 40 | — |
| Progress curves built | 0 | 3 | — |
| Headroom estimates | 0 | 3 | — |
| Inflection points identified | 0 | 2 | — |
</HARD-GATE>
```

Cannot exit until historical_data_points >= 80 (80% of target).

## Available Tactics

- **progress-curve-construction** — Build temporal performance curves with inflection detection
- **leaderboard-harvesting** — Historical data collection

## Available SOPs

- **progress-curve-fitting** — Fit curves and extract trend parameters
- **headroom-estimation** — Estimate ceiling vs current SOTA gap
- **baseline-synthesis** — Produce final integrated report

## Execution Guidance

1. Arrange all extracted scores chronologically per dataset/metric
2. Use progress-curve-construction tactic for curve building
3. Identify paradigm shifts (method families that caused jumps)
4. Use headroom-estimation for ceiling analysis
5. Compare progress rates across different sub-tasks
6. Identify tasks approaching saturation vs. those with large headroom
7. Produce baseline-synthesis as the final integrated deliverable

## Output Format

```json
{
  "progress_curves": [
    {
      "dataset": "string",
      "metric": "string",
      "time_series": [{"date": "string", "method": "string", "score": 0.0}],
      "trend_type": "logarithmic|linear|sigmoid|stepped",
      "annual_improvement_rate": 0.0,
      "inflection_points": [{"date": "string", "method": "string", "cause": "string"}]
    }
  ],
  "headroom_analysis": [
    {
      "dataset": "string",
      "metric": "string",
      "current_sota": 0.0,
      "human_performance": 0.0,
      "theoretical_ceiling": 0.0,
      "remaining_headroom_pct": 0.0,
      "saturation_status": "saturating|active_progress|early_stage"
    }
  ],
  "paradigm_shifts": [
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "method_family": "string",
      "improvement_magnitude": 0.0,
      "description": "string"
    }
  ]
}
```

<!-- BEGIN available-tables (generated) -->

## Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| Tactic | When to use |
| --- | --- |
| leaderboard-harvesting | Systematically collect performance data from platforms and papers |
| progress-curve-construction | Build performance-over-time progress curves with inflection detection |

## Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| SOP | When to use |
| --- | --- |
| baseline-synthesis | Produce final structured baseline report integrating all analysis results |
| headroom-estimation | Estimate theoretical/practical ceiling vs current SOTA gap |
| progress-curve-fitting | Construct performance-over-time visualization data |

<!-- END available-tables (generated) -->