# Uncertainty Propagation

> Propagate input uncertainties through the model via Monte Carlo sampling. Identifies which input uncertainties contribute most to output uncertainty.

- Skill: `yogsoth-ai/uncertainty-propagation` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add yogsoth-ai/uncertainty-propagation`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/yogsoth-ai/uncertainty-propagation/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: AI & ML
- Author: yogsoth-ai (https://skillmd.com/u/yogsoth-ai)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/yogsoth-ai/uncertainty-propagation

---


# Uncertainty Propagation

Map how input uncertainty flows to output uncertainty.

## Budget

| Base SOP | Target | ±10% Range |
|----------|--------|------------|
| web-search | 20 | 18–22 |
| web-research | 10 | 9–11 |
| paper-overview | 25 | 22–28 |
| paper-search | 20 | 18–22 |
| paper-research | 10 | 9–11 |

## State Ledger

```
<HARD-GATE>
| SOP | Done | Target | % |
|-----|------|--------|---|
| web-search | ? | 20 | ? |
| web-research | ? | 10 | ? |
| paper-overview | ? | 25 | ? |
| paper-search | ? | 20 | ? |
| paper-research | ? | 10 | ? |
Budget Gate: OPEN/CLOSED (>=80% required to exit)
</HARD-GATE>
```

## Available Tactics

- uncertainty-cascade

## Available SOPs

**Import:** web-search, web-research, paper-overview, paper-search, paper-research
**Subagent:** distribution-assignment, monte-carlo-sampling, critical-path-identification

## Execution Guidance

Assign probability distributions to uncertain inputs, propagate through the model via Monte Carlo sampling, analyze output distribution, identify which input uncertainties contribute most.

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## Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| Tactic | When to use |
| --- | --- |
| uncertainty-cascade | Uncertainty cascade propagation — assign input distributions, sample via Monte Carlo, propagate through model, analyze output distribution, identify critical paths. Maps how input uncertainty flows to output uncertainty. |

## Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| SOP | When to use |
| --- | --- |
| critical-path-identification | Identify which input uncertainties contribute most to output uncertainty and compute EVPI for research prioritization. |
| distribution-assignment | Assign probability distributions to uncertain parameters based on available evidence and domain knowledge. |
| monte-carlo-sampling | Design and execute Monte Carlo sampling strategy for uncertainty propagation through a model. |

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