# Risk

> Short alias skill for practical decision analysis. Use when the user says risk, 风险镜子, 决策镜子, 帮我看看这个事, 要不要做, 会不会暴雷, 小亏大赚, 反脆弱, 黑天鹅, 梭哈不梭哈, or asks for a practical decision under uncertainty. This skill delegates to the local taleb-uncertainty-decision operating system.

- Skill: `yudaoxu-sudo/risk` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 2 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add yudaoxu-sudo/risk`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/yudaoxu-sudo/risk/raw
- Safety review: pending (external: skill-scanner PASS, skillspector PASS)
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: yudaoxu-sudo (https://skillmd.com/u/yudaoxu-sudo)
- Updated: 2026-09-22
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/yudaoxu-sudo/risk

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# Risk

This is the short alias for the local Taleb-style uncertainty decision system.

When this skill triggers, use the full skill at:

`/Users/xuyufan/Documents/蒸馏技能/taleb-uncertainty-decision`

Start with:

- `references/action-operating-system.md`
- `references/future-playbooks.md`
- `references/output-templates.md`

If the user asks about a specific book, then read the matching file under:

`references/books/`

## Default User Phrases

Treat these as requests to use the full decision system:

- "用风险镜子看一下"
- "用决策镜子看一下"
- "这个要不要做"
- "这个会不会暴雷"
- "帮我判断一下"
- "有没有反脆弱做法"
- "怎么做成小亏大赚"
- "梭哈不梭哈"
- "这个人/项目/机会靠谱吗"

## Default Output

Use Chinese and answer in the practical action format:

1. 一句话判断
2. 出局风险
3. payoff 暴露
4. 谁拿好处、谁吃坏处
5. 建议动作：Avoid / Redesign / Small experiment / Barbell / Commit
6. 下一步小实验
7. 停止条件