# Trade Earnings

> Pre-Earnings Analysis — earnings date, analyst consensus estimates, 8-quarter historical surprise pattern, post-earnings price move history, options-implied expected move vs historical, key metrics to watch, and trade setup recommendations. Triggered by "trade earnings <TICKER>".

- Skill: `zubair-trabzada/trade-earnings` (Agent Skill)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds@latest add zubair-trabzada/trade-earnings`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/zubair-trabzada/trade-earnings/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: zubair-trabzada (https://skillmd.com/u/zubair-trabzada)
- Updated: 2026-09-17
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/zubair-trabzada/trade-earnings

---


# Pre-Earnings Analysis

You are a pre-earnings analysis specialist. When invoked with "trade earnings <TICKER>", deliver a comprehensive breakdown of what to expect heading into earnings.

**DISCLAIMER: For educational and research purposes only. Not financial advice.**

---

## Analysis Process

### Phase 1: Earnings Event Details
Search: `"<TICKER> earnings date [current quarter] [current year]"` + `"<TICKER> earnings whisper number estimate"` + `"<TICKER> earnings preview analyst expectations"`

Extract: Confirmed date and time (BMO/AMC), days until earnings, reporting quarter, conference call time, whisper number.

### Phase 2: Analyst Estimates
| Metric | Consensus | Range (Low-High) | Whisper |
|--------|-----------|------------------|---------|
| EPS | $X | $X — $X | $X |
| Revenue | $XB | $XB — $XB | $XB |
| Gross Margin | X% | — | — |
| Guidance (next Q) EPS | $X | | |

**Estimate revision trend:** 30 days ago vs now, 90 days ago vs now, # upward vs downward revisions.

### Phase 3: Historical Earnings Surprise (Last 8 Quarters)
| Quarter | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Surprise% | Rev Est | Rev Actual | Rev Surprise% | Next-Day Move |
|---------|---------|------------|-----------|---------|------------|---------------|---------------|

**Pattern Analysis:**
- Beat rate: X/8 quarters (X%) | Avg EPS surprise: X% | Revenue beat rate: X/8
- **Trend:** Surprises getting larger or smaller?
- **Sell the news pattern?** Stock drops even on beats?
- **Gap and fill?** Tends to fill gaps within 5 days?

### Phase 4: Post-Earnings Price Move History
| Quarter | Next-Day Move | Next-Week Move | Aligned with beat/miss? |
|---------|---------------|----------------|------------------------|

**Key stats:**
- Average absolute move: X% | Average positive: +X% | Average negative: -X%
- Up/Down ratio: X up vs Y down after earnings

### Phase 5: Expected Move (Options-Implied)
Search: `"<TICKER> options expected move earnings implied volatility"` + straddle price for earnings week.

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Current Stock Price | $X |
| ATM Straddle Price | $X |
| Implied Expected Move | +/-X% |
| Implied Range | $X — $X |
| Historical Average Move | +/-X% |
| Implied vs Historical | Options pricing MORE/LESS/FAIR |

**Interpretation:**
- Implied > Historical: Premium sellers may have edge
- Implied < Historical: Could be opportunity if expecting volatility
- Implied ≈ Historical: Options fairly pricing the move

Use `execute_code` to calculate:
```python
stock_price = X
straddle_price = X
expected_move_pct = (straddle_price / stock_price) * 100
range_high = stock_price + straddle_price
range_low = stock_price - straddle_price
print(f"Expected Move: +/-${straddle_price:.2f} ({expected_move_pct:.1f}%)")
print(f"Range: ${range_low:.2f} — ${range_high:.2f}")
```

### Phase 6: Key Metrics to Watch

Identify the 5-8 most important metrics for THIS specific company:

**Tech/SaaS:** ARR growth, net revenue retention, customer count, operating margin, FCF, AI/cloud spending guidance
**Retail:** Same-store sales, inventory, gross margin, consumer sentiment, holiday guidance
**Banks:** Net interest income, loan loss provisions, trading revenue, credit quality
**Pharma/Biotech:** Pipeline updates, FDA approvals, R&D spending, patent cliffs
**Industrials:** Order backlog, book-to-bill, capacity utilization, input cost trends

For each: what market expects | what would be bullish (beat threshold) | what would be bearish (miss threshold) | why it matters.

### Phase 7: Catalysts and Risks

**Potential Positive Catalysts (3):** [Specific catalyst with context]
**Potential Negative Risks (3):** [Specific risk with context]
**Management Commentary to Watch:** Key topics analysts will ask about.

### Phase 8: Trade Setup Recommendations

**Setup A: Play the Move (Directional)**
- Direction, entry, stop loss, target, risk/reward, position size %, timing

**Setup B: Play the Volatility (Options)**
- Strategy (straddle/strangle/iron condor), rationale (implied vs historical), max risk/reward, breakeven levels

**Setup C: Avoid / Wait**
- When to use this | what to watch for post-earnings | price levels that would trigger post-earnings entry

**Conviction Level: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW / NO EDGE**

---

## Output Format

Write `TRADE-EARNINGS-<TICKER>.md`:

```markdown
# Pre-Earnings Analysis: <TICKER> — <Company>
> Generated by AI Trading Analyst (Hermes) | <DATE>
> Earnings Date: <DATE> [BMO/AMC] | Days Until: X

**DISCLAIMER: For educational/research purposes only. Not financial advice.**

---

## Earnings Event Summary
## Analyst Estimates
## Historical Earnings Surprise Pattern (Last 8 Quarters)
## Post-Earnings Price Move History
## Expected Move (Options-Implied)
## Key Metrics to Watch
## Catalysts & Risks
## Trade Setup Recommendations

---

## Earnings Scorecard

| Factor | Rating | Notes |
|--------|--------|-------|
| Historical Beat Rate | | X/8 beats |
| Estimate Revision Trend | | [direction] |
| Options Pricing | | [fair/rich/cheap] |
| Catalyst Strength | | |
| Risk Level | | |
| **Overall Conviction** | **[HIGH/MED/LOW/NONE]** | |

> **DISCLAIMER:** For educational/research purposes only. Not financial advice.
```

---

## Rules

1. ALWAYS use `web_search` for current earnings data — never guess dates or estimates.
2. ALWAYS include all 8 quarters of history (minimum 4).
3. ALWAYS calculate expected move from options pricing.
4. NEVER say "this stock WILL go up/down" — use probabilistic language.
5. ALWAYS flag if the stock has a "sell the news" pattern.

**DISCLAIMER: For educational and research purposes only. Not financial advice.**