# U0353 Economic Cost Benefit Forecaster

> Build and operate the "Economic Cost-Benefit Forecaster" capability for Economic Optimization. Trigger when this exact capability is needed in mission execution.

- Skill: `zwright8/u0353-economic-cost-benefit-forecaster` (Agent Skill, multi-file: 2 files)
- Install (CLI): `npx skillmds add zwright8/u0353-economic-cost-benefit-forecaster`
- Raw SKILL.md: https://api.skillmd.com/api/skills/zwright8/u0353-economic-cost-benefit-forecaster/raw
- Safety review: pending
- Works with: Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex
- Category: Coding & Dev Tools
- Author: zwright8 (https://skillmd.com/u/zwright8)
- Updated: 2026-09-10
- Page: https://skillmd.com/skills/zwright8/u0353-economic-cost-benefit-forecaster

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# Economic Cost-Benefit Forecaster

## Why This Skill Exists
We need this skill because missions need explicit tradeoff logic for cost, speed, and impact. This specific skill prioritizes actions with the strongest net value.

## When To Use
Use this skill when the request explicitly needs "Economic Cost-Benefit Forecaster" outcomes in the Economic Optimization domain.

## Step-by-Step Implementation Guide
1. Define the scope and success metrics for `Economic Cost-Benefit Forecaster`, including at least three measurable KPIs tied to overspending and low-impact allocation.
2. Design and version the input/output contract for budgets, costs, benefits, and opportunity values, then add schema validation and failure-mode handling.
3. Implement the core capability using cost-impact simulation, and produce forecasted ROI scenarios with deterministic scoring.
4. Integrate the skill into swarm orchestration: task routing, approval gates, retry strategy, and rollback controls.
5. Add unit, integration, and simulation tests that explicitly cover overspending and low-impact allocation, then run regression baselines.
6. Deploy behind a feature flag, monitor telemetry/alerts for two release cycles, and iterate thresholds based on observed outcomes.

## Required Deliverables
- Capability contract: input schema, deterministic scoring, output schema, and failure modes.
- Runtime profile: simulation-lab using cost-impact simulation to produce forecasted ROI scenarios.
- Orchestration integration: economic-optimization:simulation-lab routing, approval gates, retries, and rollback controls.
- Validation evidence: unit, integration, simulation, regression-baseline suites and rollout telemetry.

## Operational Runbook
### Preflight
- Confirm the Economic Cost-Benefit Forecaster request scope, source evidence, and measurable success criteria before execution.
- Verify feature flag skill_0353_economic-cost-benefit-forecaster, approval gates, and rollback owner before autonomous use.

### Execution
- Execute cost-impact simulation with deterministic scoring and reproducible trace capture.
- Produce forecasted ROI scenarios plus scorecard, assumptions, and unresolved-risk notes.

### Recovery
- Fail closed when required signals, evidence, or approval gates are missing.
- Rollback to the last stable baseline when posture is critical or validation fails.

### Handoff
- Publish forecasted ROI scenarios, validation evidence, and telemetry links to downstream owners.
- Queue follow-up tasks for unresolved risks, threshold tuning, or approval review.

## Guardrails
- [quality] Require deterministic scoring and validation evidence before promotion.
- [reliability] Preserve retries, rollback controls, and failure-mode evidence for every run.
- [safety] Route critical posture or missing approval gates to human review before autonomous action.