Results for “posterior-predictive-checks”

Bayesian modeling and probabilistic programming with PyMC — hierarchical models, MCMC (NUTS) sampling, variational inference, LOO/WAIC model comparison, and posterior predictive checks. Use when fitting Bayesian or hierarchical models, estimating posteriors and credible intervals, running probabilistic inference, or comparing models with LOO/WAIC. Part of the AlterLab Academic Skills suite.

Bayesian modeling with PyMC. Build hierarchical models, MCMC (NUTS), variational inference, LOO/WAIC comparison, posterior checks, for probabilistic programming and inference.

Use for writing, reviewing, debugging, or testing Python analysis of Bayesian inference results with ArviZ, including 1.x DataTree groups, legacy InferenceData inputs, xarray dimensions and coordinates, conversion, summaries, R-hat/ESS/MCSE diagnostics, posterior predictive checks, PSIS-LOO, Pareto-k, and model comparison. Trigger on chain/draw shape errors, mislabeled groups, flattened samples, missing log likelihood, or misleading diagnostic claims. Do not use to construct or sample PyMC, NumPyro, or Bambi models, for generic plotting, or for deterministic statistics without Bayesian draws.

Review docs, tool output, skills, and memory candidates for prompt-injection risk.

Create Earth2Studio prognostic model wrappers that time-step weather forecasts forward, with triple-inheritance classes, tests, and documentation.

Push the LLM to reconsider, refine, and improve its recent output. Use when user asks for deeper critique or mentions a known deeper critique method, e.g. socratic, first principles, pre-mortem, red team.

`analysis-agent`/`task-agent`/`review-agent`: use when repeated failure needs a new hypothesis or proof path; skip an initial failure with verified cause and a different action.

Statistical fine-mapping of GWAS loci using SuSiE, SuSiE-inf, and Approximate Bayes Factors to identify credible sets and posterior inclusion probabilities (PIPs) for causal variant discovery. SuSiE-inf adds an infinitesimal polygenic component for improved calibration at well-powered loci.

Bayesian modeling with PyMC. Build hierarchical models, MCMC (NUTS), variational inference, LOO/WAIC comparison, posterior checks, for probabilistic programming and inference.

Capture confidence ratings before and after a learning attempt to identify overconfidence and underconfidence patterns. Use when a student wants to understand how well they actually know something versus how well they think they know it.

Use for writing, reviewing, debugging, testing, or diagnosing Python Bayesian models built directly with PyMC, including Model, coords/dims, Data, random variables, potentials, posterior sampling, prior/posterior predictive checks, and InferenceData output. Trigger on model geometry, shape errors, divergences, sampler choice, mutable prediction data, and probabilistic validation. Do not use for Bambi formula models, NumPyro/JAX programs, ArviZ-only analysis of existing draws, deterministic optimization, or general statistics without PyMC code.