Roadmap Reality Check
A roadmap in, an economics audit out. Every item must show its causal chain to money — or wear the UNSUPPORTED tag until it can.
Verification gates (defined first; output is blocked until all pass)
- G1 — Tag + mechanism: every roadmap item is tagged
SUPPORTED or UNSUPPORTED (as stated), and every tag carries a stated economic mechanism — the causal chain to revenue, gross margin, retention, or CAC, quantified from provided numbers where possible. A tag without a mechanism fails.
- G2 — Input-only arithmetic: all math uses numbers from the input; anything else is
[ESTIMATE: derivation]. Imported industry benchmarks ("PLG converts at 3%") presented as fact fail the gate.
- G3 — Flip conditions: every UNSUPPORTED item names the missing evidence or number that would flip it. UNSUPPORTED is a verdict on the stated case, not a kill order — the output must say so.
Steps
- Bank the numbers. Extract price, margin, CAC, churn, user count, and any per-item figures from the input. These are the only facts. Missing a number the audit needs? Say which, and either ask or proceed with a labeled ESTIMATE range.
- Trace each item's mechanism. Which lever does it pull — new revenue (deals, expansion), margin (COGS, support cost), retention (churn), or acquisition (CAC, conversion)? Write the chain: R4 → fewer settings tickets → lower support cost / less rage-churn. Flag every assumed link (ticket volume → churn is an assumption unless the input ties them).
- Run the arithmetic. COGS-heavy features get the margin math (a $6/user/mo AI feature against a $49 price moves gross margin ~12 points — show it). Deal-unblocking features get ARR vs. CAC. Refactors get cost-of-inaction.
- Tag honestly. SUPPORTED = the provided numbers plus stated mechanism carry the case. UNSUPPORTED (as stated) = the mechanism is missing a load-bearing number or the math goes the wrong way. Strategic bets without economics stay UNSUPPORTED with their flip condition — the tag measures evidence, not vision.
- Summarize exposure. N supported / M unsupported, plus the single biggest economic exposure on the roadmap (usually the item that quietly changes COGS or CAC the most).
- Gate pass. Check every item for tag + mechanism (G1), every figure for provenance (G2), every UNSUPPORTED for a flip condition (G3). Fix and re-run; maximum 2 repair loops, then report the failure instead of the output.
Output format
ROADMAP REALITY CHECK (inputs: $49/user/mo · 78% GM · CAC $900 · churn 2.2%/mo · 2,000 users)
R1. AI meeting summaries — UNSUPPORTED (as stated)
Mechanism: adds ~$6/user/mo COGS → GM 78% → ~66% (−12pts) [derived from input]
Flip condition: evidence the feature lifts retention or supports a price increase ≥ the margin cost
R2. SSO + audit logs — SUPPORTED
Mechanism: unblocks $110k ARR (3 named deals, per sales notes) at standard margin; no new per-user COGS
...
SUMMARY: 2 supported / 3 unsupported · biggest exposure: R1 margin compression
GATE CHECK: G1 pass (n/n tagged+mechanism) · G2 pass · G3 pass
Hard rules
- No tag without a mechanism, no mechanism without its chain to a named lever (revenue, margin, retention, CAC). "Strategic" is not a mechanism.
- Never import benchmarks as facts. Industry conversion rates, adoption curves, or cost figures not in the input appear only as
[ESTIMATE] with a derivation, and an item whose case rests on one stays UNSUPPORTED (as stated).
- Show the margin math for anything with per-unit COGS — AI features especially. A feature that moves gross margin more than 2 points must have that movement in its mechanism line.
- UNSUPPORTED items keep their flip condition. The audit's job is to name the missing number, not to kill ideas.
Limitations
- The audit is as good as the numbers provided; wrong inputs produce a confidently wrong audit — garbage in is not detectable from inside.
- Mechanisms are causal hypotheses made explicit, not proven causation — the assumed links are flagged so the reader knows which chains to test.
- Second-order effects (competitive response, cannibalization between items) are noted only when the input surfaces them.
- This audits economics, not desirability or feasibility — an item can be SUPPORTED and still be the wrong thing to build.
1---2name: roadmap-reality-check3description: Strategy-stage skill: audits a roadmap against unit economics — every item tagged supported or unsupported with the economic mechanism stated. Use when the user provides a roadmap plus business numbers and asks what's economically justified — 'reality-check this roadmap', 'which items pay for themselves', 'what survives contact with the P&L', 'does this lineup make economic sense' — or when /pm routes such a request here. Do NOT use to author a roadmap, to prioritize purely by customer impact without economics, to size markets (opportunity-sizer's job), or for definitions of unit-economics terms.4---56# Roadmap Reality Check78A roadmap in, an economics audit out. Every item must show its causal chain to money — or wear the UNSUPPORTED tag until it can.910## Verification gates (defined first; output is blocked until all pass)1112- **G1 — Tag + mechanism:** every roadmap item is tagged `SUPPORTED` or `UNSUPPORTED (as stated)`, and every tag carries a stated economic mechanism — the causal chain to revenue, gross margin, retention, or CAC, quantified from provided numbers where possible. A tag without a mechanism fails.13- **G2 — Input-only arithmetic:** all math uses numbers from the input; anything else is `[ESTIMATE: derivation]`. Imported industry benchmarks ("PLG converts at 3%") presented as fact fail the gate.14- **G3 — Flip conditions:** every UNSUPPORTED item names the missing evidence or number that would flip it. UNSUPPORTED is a verdict on the stated case, not a kill order — the output must say so.1516## Steps17181. **Bank the numbers.** Extract price, margin, CAC, churn, user count, and any per-item figures from the input. These are the only facts. Missing a number the audit needs? Say which, and either ask or proceed with a labeled ESTIMATE range.192. **Trace each item's mechanism.** Which lever does it pull — new revenue (deals, expansion), margin (COGS, support cost), retention (churn), or acquisition (CAC, conversion)? Write the chain: R4 → fewer settings tickets → lower support cost / less rage-churn. Flag every assumed link (ticket volume → churn is an assumption unless the input ties them).203. **Run the arithmetic.** COGS-heavy features get the margin math (a $6/user/mo AI feature against a $49 price moves gross margin ~12 points — show it). Deal-unblocking features get ARR vs. CAC. Refactors get cost-of-inaction.214. **Tag honestly.** SUPPORTED = the provided numbers plus stated mechanism carry the case. UNSUPPORTED (as stated) = the mechanism is missing a load-bearing number or the math goes the wrong way. Strategic bets without economics stay UNSUPPORTED with their flip condition — the tag measures evidence, not vision.225. **Summarize exposure.** N supported / M unsupported, plus the single biggest economic exposure on the roadmap (usually the item that quietly changes COGS or CAC the most).236. **Gate pass.** Check every item for tag + mechanism (G1), every figure for provenance (G2), every UNSUPPORTED for a flip condition (G3). Fix and re-run; maximum 2 repair loops, then report the failure instead of the output.2425## Output format2627```28ROADMAP REALITY CHECK (inputs: $49/user/mo · 78% GM · CAC $900 · churn 2.2%/mo · 2,000 users)29R1. AI meeting summaries — UNSUPPORTED (as stated)30 Mechanism: adds ~$6/user/mo COGS → GM 78% → ~66% (−12pts) [derived from input]31 Flip condition: evidence the feature lifts retention or supports a price increase ≥ the margin cost32R2. SSO + audit logs — SUPPORTED33 Mechanism: unblocks $110k ARR (3 named deals, per sales notes) at standard margin; no new per-user COGS34...35SUMMARY: 2 supported / 3 unsupported · biggest exposure: R1 margin compression36GATE CHECK: G1 pass (n/n tagged+mechanism) · G2 pass · G3 pass37```3839## Hard rules40411. No tag without a mechanism, no mechanism without its chain to a named lever (revenue, margin, retention, CAC). "Strategic" is not a mechanism.422. Never import benchmarks as facts. Industry conversion rates, adoption curves, or cost figures not in the input appear only as `[ESTIMATE]` with a derivation, and an item whose case rests on one stays UNSUPPORTED (as stated).433. Show the margin math for anything with per-unit COGS — AI features especially. A feature that moves gross margin more than 2 points must have that movement in its mechanism line.444. UNSUPPORTED items keep their flip condition. The audit's job is to name the missing number, not to kill ideas.4546## Limitations4748- The audit is as good as the numbers provided; wrong inputs produce a confidently wrong audit — garbage in is not detectable from inside.49- Mechanisms are causal hypotheses made explicit, not proven causation — the assumed links are flagged so the reader knows which chains to test.50- Second-order effects (competitive response, cannibalization between items) are noted only when the input surfaces them.51- This audits economics, not desirability or feasibility — an item can be SUPPORTED and still be the wrong thing to build.
Abhillashjadhav