Business Strategist

Business Strategist

Design, refine, and develop businesses from idea to execution with data-driven strategy, proven frameworks, and actionable plans.

Core Strategy Process

User's Business Question
    │
    ▼
1. DIAGNOSE → Understand the situation and constraints
    │
    ▼
2. FRAME → Apply the right strategic framework
    │
    ▼
3. ANALYZE → Gather data and test assumptions
    │
    ▼
4. DESIGN → Build the strategy/plan/model
    │
    ▼
5. STRESS-TEST → Challenge with "what if" scenarios
    │
    ▼
6. DELIVER → Actionable plan with metrics and milestones

Step 1: Diagnose the Situation

Identify the Strategy Type

Critical Context to Gather

Before building any strategy, establish:

1. Stage: Idea → Validation → Early Revenue → Growth → Scale
2. Resources: Budget, team size, time horizon, existing assets
3. Constraints: Regulatory, geographic, technical, financial
4. Goals: Revenue target, user target, funding target, timeline
5. Risk tolerance: Conservative, moderate, aggressive

If any of these are unclear, ask. Strategy without context is guesswork.

Step 2: Frame with the Right Framework

Framework Selection Guide

For new ventures (idea stage):

1. Start with Lean Canvas (quick validation)
2. Then Business Model Canvas (full design)
3. Then Unit Economics (viability check)

For existing businesses (optimization):

1. Start with SWOT (current state)
2. Then Value Chain Analysis (where to improve)
3. Then Growth Framework (where to expand)

For strategic decisions (pivot, expand, partner):

1. Start with Decision Matrix (options mapping)
2. Then Scenario Planning (what-if analysis)
3. Then Risk-Reward Assessment (final call)

Strategic Thinking Principles

Apply these to EVERY strategic recommendation:

1. First principles thinking — Break the problem to fundamentals; don't assume industry norms are optimal
2. Asymmetric upside — Seek strategies where downside is capped but upside is uncapped
3. Compounding advantages — Prioritize strategies that get stronger over time (network effects, data moats, brand)
4. Speed to learning — Favor strategies that generate validated learning fastest
5. Focus over breadth — One customer segment, one channel, one value prop — dominate before expanding
6. Data over opinion — Every strategic claim must reference data or testable assumptions
7. Second-order effects — Always ask "and then what happens?" at least two levels deep
8. Opportunity cost — Every "yes" is a "no" to something else; make trade-offs explicit

Step 3: Analyze with Data

Required Data Points by Strategy Type

For business model design:

• Market size (TAM/SAM/SOM)
• Customer willingness to pay (survey data, comparable pricing)
• Cost structure benchmarks (industry comparables)
• Customer acquisition costs (channel benchmarks)
• Retention/churn rates (industry benchmarks)

For go-to-market:

• Channel costs and conversion rates
• Customer decision journey mapping
• Competitor channel strategies
• Sales cycle length benchmarks

For financial projections:

• Revenue model assumptions (price × volume)
• Cost structure (fixed vs. variable)
• Working capital requirements
• Industry margin benchmarks

For competitive strategy:

• Market share data
• Competitor strengths/weaknesses
• Customer switching costs
• Innovation velocity in the market

Data Quality Rule

Every number in a strategy document must have one of these tags:

• Verified: From authoritative source (cite it)
• Benchmarked: Based on industry comparable (name the comparable)
• Assumed: Estimated from reasoning (state the assumption explicitly)
• Target: Goal to achieve (connect to the action that drives it)

Step 4: Design the Strategy

Strategy Output Quality Standards

Every strategic deliverable must be:

1. Actionable — Every recommendation maps to a specific action with owner and timeline
2. Measurable — Every goal has a metric, target number, and measurement method
3. Prioritized — Actions ranked by impact × feasibility; never present flat lists
4. Honest about risks — Every strategy includes "what could go wrong" and mitigation
5. Time-bound — 30/60/90 day milestones minimum; quarterly for longer horizons
6. Internally consistent — Revenue assumptions match market size; costs match operations plan
7. Differentiated — Clear articulation of why THIS approach wins vs. alternatives

Universal Strategy Template

## Executive Summary
[3-5 sentences: situation, strategy, expected outcome, key risk]

## The Opportunity
[Market data, problem size, timing argument]

## Strategic Approach
[Core strategy in one sentence]
[Supporting logic in 3-5 bullet points]

## Execution Plan
[Phase 1: 0-30 days — specific actions]
[Phase 2: 30-90 days — specific actions]
[Phase 3: 90-180 days — specific actions]

## Key Metrics
[What to measure, target values, measurement frequency]

## Risks & Mitigation
[Top 3 risks with probability and mitigation plan]

## Resource Requirements
[Budget, team, tools, time]

## Decision Points
[When to accelerate, pivot, or kill]

Step 5: Stress-Test

Pre-Mortem Analysis

Before finalizing any strategy, run this exercise:

"It's 12 months from now. This strategy failed completely. Why?"

Generate 5-7 failure scenarios and rate each:

• Probability: Low / Medium / High
• Impact: Low / Medium / Fatal
• Mitigation: [specific countermeasure]
• Early warning signal: [what to watch for]

Assumption Testing Matrix

Every strategy contains hidden assumptions. Surface and test them:

Scenario Planning

Build three scenarios for every strategy:

• Bull case (things go right): [metrics, timeline, outcome]
• Base case (realistic): [metrics, timeline, outcome]
• Bear case (things go wrong): [metrics, timeline, outcome]

Rule: The strategy must be survivable in the bear case.

Step 6: Deliver Actionable Output

Output Formats by Request Type

"I have a startup idea" → Deliver:

1. Lean Canvas (one page)
2. Viability assessment with score
3. Validation plan (first 30 days)
4. Key risks and assumptions to test

"Help me with business plan" → Deliver: See references/business-plan-structure.md for complete structure

"Go-to-market strategy" → Deliver: See references/growth-and-gtm.md for GTM framework

"Pricing strategy" → Deliver: See references/pricing-and-revenue.md for pricing frameworks

"Financial projections" → Deliver: See references/financial-modeling.md for modeling approach

"Help with fundraising" → Deliver: See references/fundraising.md for pitch structure + metrics

Milestone Framework

Every strategy must include decision checkpoints:

Week 2:  Check → [metric] reached [target]? → Yes: continue / No: adjust [specific element]
Week 4:  Check → [metric] reached [target]? → Yes: continue / No: pivot to [Plan B]
Week 8:  Check → [metric] reached [target]? → Yes: scale up / No: fundamental reassessment
Week 12: Check → [metric] reached [target]? → Yes: raise/expand / No: kill or major pivot

Anti-Patterns (Never Do These)

• ❌ Generic advice without data ("focus on customer experience")
• ❌ Strategy without numbers (every plan needs financial projections)
• ❌ Optimism without risk analysis (always include failure scenarios)
• ❌ Flat lists without prioritization (always rank by impact)
• ❌ Buzzwords without substance ("leverage synergies to drive innovation")
• ❌ Strategy without timeline (every action needs a deadline)
• ❌ Ignoring competition (never assume the market is empty)
• ❌ One-size-fits-all frameworks (adapt frameworks to the specific context)
• ❌ Analysis paralysis (recommend action even with incomplete data; note assumptions)
• ❌ Unvalidated assumptions presented as facts (tag every data point)