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Run npx skillmds@latest add agoradynamics/wick-base-rate in your terminal (requires Node.js), paste this page's agent-chat prompt into Claude, Cursor, or any MCP-connected agent, or download the SKILL.md file and copy it into your agent's skills directory.

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Is Wick Base Rate free to use?

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Who published Wick Base Rate?

agoradynamics (@agoradynamics) published this skill. Their other Agent Skills are listed on their SkillMD profile.

Wick Base Rate by agoradynamics — Agent Skill

Name: Wick Base Rate
Author: agoradynamics

Wick Base Rate

Force base-rate thinking before a probability estimate. Identify reference class, historical rate, and adjust from there — not from intuition. Use before /calibrate or whenever you catch yourself or someone else estimating a probability from vibes.

File contents

Wick — Base Rate

Updated: 2026-04-20 · first written 2026-04-20

Tetlock-grade discipline applied to any probability claim. The single biggest failure mode in forecasting is estimating from scratch instead of adjusting from the base rate.

When to invoke

Before /calibrate on any resolvable prediction
When you catch yourself saying "I think it's about X%"
When someone else quotes a probability that feels anchored to vibes
During /decide when scenarios get probability weights

What Wick does

Parse the claim
Identify the reference class — the set of similar events this is a member of
Estimate the base rate — what fraction of events in that class went the predicted way?
Identify adjustment factors — what about this case moves the probability up or down from the base?
Arrive at: base rate × adjustment, not a free-floating intuition
Log reasoning to memory/predictions.md if paired with /calibrate

Example

Claim: "I'd put this seed-stage startup's chance of a meaningful exit at 40%." Reference class: seed-stage B2B SaaS in this sector, 2015-2024 Base rate: ~10-15% reach any exit; ~2-4% reach a meaningful exit Adjustments:

+3-5% — strong technical founding team with prior exit
-2% — crowded market, strong incumbents
+1-3% — existing paying customers Adjusted estimate: ~4-8%, not 40%.

The gap between gut-40% and base-rate-anchored-5% is the entire value of the skill.

Output format

Reference class: [the class — be specific]
Base rate: [X% — cite source if available, flag if estimated]
Adjustments:
  + [factor 1]: +/-Y%
  - [factor 2]: +/-Y%
Adjusted estimate: ~Z%
Confidence in the base rate itself: [low / medium / high]
Sanity check: does Z% feel wildly different from initial gut estimate? If yes, investigate why.

Framework grounding

Tetlock's superforecasting research. Method of Multiple Explanations — consider alternate reference classes; don't anchor on the first one that fits. Gate 2 (Assent) — the felt probability is an impression; test it before accepting it.

Anti-patterns Wick will flag

"Inside view only" — estimating from the features of this case without checking the class
Hand-waved base rate — "probably most of them..." without actually looking it up
Reference class too narrow — "similar startups founded on a Tuesday in my city"
Reference class too broad — "all startups" when "seed-stage B2B in this sector" is available

---name: wick-base-ratedescription: Force base-rate thinking before a probability estimate. Identify reference class, historical rate, and adjust from there — not from intuition. Use before /calibrate or whenever you catch yourself or someone else estimating a probability from vibes.license: MIT---# Wick — Base Rate*Updated: 2026-04-20 · first written 2026-04-20*Tetlock-grade discipline applied to any probability claim. The single biggest failure mode in forecasting is estimating from scratch instead of adjusting from the base rate.## When to invoke- Before `/calibrate` on any resolvable prediction- When you catch yourself saying "I think it's about X%"- When someone else quotes a probability that feels anchored to vibes- During `/decide` when scenarios get probability weights## What Wick does1. Parse the claim2. Identify the **reference class** — the set of similar events this is a member of3. Estimate the **base rate** — what fraction of events in that class went the predicted way?4. Identify **adjustment factors** — what about *this* case moves the probability up or down from the base?5. Arrive at: **base rate × adjustment**, not a free-floating intuition6. Log reasoning to `memory/predictions.md` if paired with `/calibrate`## Example**Claim:** "I'd put this seed-stage startup's chance of a meaningful exit at 40%."**Reference class:** seed-stage B2B SaaS in this sector, 2015-2024**Base rate:** ~10-15% reach any exit; ~2-4% reach a meaningful exit**Adjustments:** - +3-5% — strong technical founding team with prior exit - -2% — crowded market, strong incumbents - +1-3% — existing paying customers**Adjusted estimate:** ~4-8%, not 40%.The gap between gut-40% and base-rate-anchored-5% is the entire value of the skill.## Output format```Reference class: [the class — be specific]Base rate: [X% — cite source if available, flag if estimated]Adjustments: + [factor 1]: +/-Y% - [factor 2]: +/-Y%Adjusted estimate: ~Z%Confidence in the base rate itself: [low / medium / high]Sanity check: does Z% feel wildly different from initial gut estimate? If yes, investigate why.```## Framework groundingTetlock's superforecasting research. Method of Multiple Explanations — consider alternate reference classes; don't anchor on the first one that fits. Gate 2 (Assent) — the felt probability is an impression; test it before accepting it.## Anti-patterns Wick will flag- "Inside view only" — estimating from the features of this case without checking the class- Hand-waved base rate — "probably most of them..." without actually looking it up- Reference class too narrow — "similar startups founded on a Tuesday in my city"- Reference class too broad — "all startups" when "seed-stage B2B in this sector" is available

Frequently asked questions