ahump20 Pitcher Analytics
Use this skill when the task requires a thorough pitching evaluation beyond ERA. The goal is to give coaches, analysts, and content teams a precise and actionable read on how a pitcher is performing, why, and what adjustments to expect or recommend.
Working Model
Before evaluating any pitcher, establish:
- Role: Weekend starter, midweek starter, multi-inning reliever, closer, or high-leverage bridge arm?
- Arsenal: What pitches does he throw? What are the usage rates? Does he have a true out pitch?
- Sample: How many innings? How many appearances? Weekend or midweek context?
- Opponent quality: DI average, conference slate, or top-25 heavy schedule?
Role and sample matter as much as the metrics themselves. A 12-start weekend arm and a 20-inning reliever require different analytical frames.
Pitch-Mix Analysis
When pitch data is available (Trackman, Hawkeye, Yakkertech, or manually scouted):
Pitch Classification
- Fastball family: Four-seam, two-seam/sinker, cutter
- Breaking ball family: Curveball (12-6, slurve), slider (hard, gyro)
- Offspeed family: Changeup, splitter, circle change
- Specialty: Screwball, knuckleball (flag these — rare at college level)
Usage Rate Guidance
A healthy starter arsenal typically looks like:
| Pitch Type | Typical Usage Range |
|---|---|
| Primary fastball | 40–60% |
| Secondary fastball or cutter | 0–20% |
| Primary breaking ball | 15–30% |
| Offspeed (change/splitter) | 10–25% |
A pitcher over-relying on one pitch (>70% usage) is either elite with that pitch or limiting himself — determine which from outcome data.
Pitch Value Metrics (when available)
- Whiff% per pitch: Swings and misses / total swings on that pitch type
- Put-away%: K rate when pitcher is ahead in count (0-2, 1-2)
- Chase%: O-Swing% — swings on pitches outside the zone
- Zone%: Percentage of pitches in the strike zone
Elite put-away pitch: > 35% whiff rate on the pitch in two-strike counts.
Sequencing Principles
Even without pitch-tracking data, sequencing can be evaluated from game logs and observation:
- Fastball command first: A pitcher who cannot locate the fastball to both sides of the plate has no sequence — everything telegraphs.
- Secondary in early counts: Elite pitchers use breaking balls in 1-0 and 2-0 counts to steal called strikes; average pitchers default to fastballs.
- Change the eye level: Pairing a high four-seam with a low changeup or curve creates the most cognitive dissonance for hitters.
- Left/right splits: Evaluate breaking ball and changeup effectiveness separately vs. LHH and RHH.
When sequence data is limited: read the BABIP vs. FIP gap. A large positive gap (ERA >> FIP) suggests batted-ball variance is punishing an otherwise solid sequence plan. A large negative gap (ERA << FIP) may indicate sequencing masking mediocre stuff.
Role Recommendations
Use these thresholds to recommend starter vs. reliever roles:
| Metric | Starter Profile | Reliever Profile |
|---|---|---|
| IP/start | 5.0+ | N/A |
| Pitches/start | 80+ | < 50 (multi-inning) |
| Arsenal depth | 3+ pitches | 2 pitches acceptable |
| BB/9 tolerance | < 3.5 | < 4.5 |
| Velocity (avg FB) | 89+ mph | 90+ preferred |
| Platoon split | Manageable | Can be hidden |
A two-pitch pitcher with elite stuff but a 4.5 BB/9 is likely a high-leverage late-inning arm, not a Friday starter.
Bullpen Evaluation Framework
For evaluating a pitching staff as a unit:
- Inherited runner strand rate (LOB%): Above 72% = good bullpen management. Below 65% = issues.
- Opener usage: Note when a program uses openers to match up with dangerous top-of-order left-handed hitters.
- Closer profile: Should have at least one elite secondary pitch (whiff > 30%), K/9 > 10, BB/9 < 3.
- Depth count: How many arms can give a clean inning? Flag if the program is 2-3 deep vs. 5-6 deep.
Platoon Splits
Standard splits to report:
| Split | Metric | Threshold to flag |
|---|---|---|
| vs. LHH | wOBA allowed | > .360 is vulnerability |
| vs. RHH | wOBA allowed | > .360 is vulnerability |
| RISP | BA allowed | > .280 is a clutch concern |
| 2-out | OBP allowed | > .380 is a sequencing concern |
Weekend Series Pitcher Preview Format
When generating a series pitcher preview:
- Starter name, class, role (e.g., "RHP, Jr., Friday starter")
- Season line: ERA / FIP / IP / K/9 / BB/9 / WHIP
- Arsenal summary: Top 2–3 pitches, usage, and best pitch
- Key tendency: One sentence on what he does well and what hitters can exploit
- Matchup note: How does his profile match against this specific opponent's lineup tendencies?
Keep each pitcher card to 6–8 lines. Do not pad with generic commentary.
Hard Rules
- Never lead with ERA alone — always pair with FIP or WHIP.
- Never recommend a role change without citing at least two supporting metrics.
- Never present pitch-mix analysis without sample size in appearances or batters faced.
- Always flag when data is manually scouted (subjective) vs. tracked (objective).
- Do not compare a college pitcher's raw numbers to MLB benchmarks without adjusting the frame.
- When evaluating a Texas pitcher: note Disch-Falk Field's hitter-friendly environment in the ERA read.