Crypto Token Analysis

Crypto Token Deep Analysis Framework

Systematic approach for analyzing crypto tokens with focus on profit opportunities and risk avoidance. Used when user requests token analysis, investment research, or airdrop evaluation.

When to Use

• User asks to analyze a specific token (e.g., "$HPL analysis")
• Requests for "deep dive", "fundamental analysis", or "is X token good?"
• Airdrop opportunity evaluation (token OR project-level)
• Risk assessment before investment
• Comparing tokens in an ecosystem
• Analyzing crypto projects/protocols for airdrop potential (AI agents, DeFi protocols, infrastructure)
• Evaluating X/Twitter announcements for alpha/farming opportunities
• DePIN project analysis (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks — Helium, IoTeX, Peaq, Render, etc.)
• Stock market dividend analysis (IDX/Indonesian stocks) — see references/idx-dividend-analysis.md for workflow when APIs fail
• NFT collection analysis (OpenSea, Blur, etc.) — floor price, volume, holder distribution, project status

Analysis Types

Type A: Token Analysis (existing token with market data)

Use when: Token already listed on CoinGecko/CMC, has trading volume, circulating supply.

Type B: Project/Protocol Analysis (pre-token or early-stage)

Use when: Analyzing for airdrop potential, product is live but no token yet, or token just launched with minimal data.

Key difference: Type B focuses on product reality, user onboarding, VC backing, and airdrop signals rather than liquidity metrics.

Type C: DePIN Project Analysis (hardware-based infrastructure)

Use when: Analyzing Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks — projects requiring hardware (IoT devices, sensors, nodes, GPUs, wireless hotspots).

Key difference: Type C evaluates hardware requirements, operator economics, network effects, and adoption barriers unique to physical infrastructure.

Type D: NFT Collection Analysis (floor price, volume, holders)

Use when: Analyzing NFT collections on OpenSea, Blur, or other marketplaces — evaluating floor price trends, trading volume, holder distribution, and project status.

Key difference: Type D focuses on floor price trends, volume/holder ratio, chart patterns (pump & dump, death spiral), and project abandonment signals rather than tokenomics.

Core Analysis Framework (Type A: Token Analysis)

1. Market Data (CoinGecko API)

Primary endpoint:

curl -s "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/{token_id}"

Key metrics to extract:

• Market cap & FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation)
• 24h volume
• Circulating vs total supply
• Price performance (24h, 7d, 30d)
• ATH/ATL with dates
• Contract addresses

Critical calculation:

vol_mcap_ratio = (volume_24h / market_cap) * 100

# Benchmarks:
# Healthy: >10%
# Acceptable: 3-10%
# Weak: 1-3%
# Dead: <1%

2. Liquidity Health Assessment

Volume/MCap ratio is THE critical metric for exit risk.

If ratio < 1%, token is illiquid regardless of other fundamentals.

Slippage estimation (rough):

• <0.1% ratio: Expect 10-30% slippage on $5K trade
• 0.1-1%: Expect 3-10% slippage on $5K trade
• 1-5%: Expect 1-3% slippage on $5K trade

• 5%: Liquid, <1% slippage

3. Tokenomics & Unlock Risk

Supply breakdown:

circulating_pct = (circulating_supply / total_supply) * 100
locked_pct = 100 - circulating_pct

# Risk levels:
# <20% locked: Low risk
# 20-50% locked: Medium risk
# 50-70% locked: High risk
# >70% locked: Extreme risk (avoid)

Unlock schedule:

• Check project docs, GitHub, or token vesting contracts
• If not disclosed = RED FLAG
• Calculate potential sell pressure per unlock event

4. Protocol Fundamentals (for DeFi tokens)

For lending/DEX/yield protocols:

# Revenue efficiency
revenue_tvl_ratio = (annual_revenue / tvl) * 100

# Benchmarks (lending protocols):
# Excellent: >2%
# Good: 1-2%
# Acceptable: 0.5-1%
# Poor: <0.5%

# Utilization rate
utilization = (total_borrowed / total_supplied) * 100

# Healthy range: 40-80%
# Too low (<30%): Dead capital
# Too high (>90%): Liquidity risk

TVL quality check:

• Look for "dead capital" (high TVL, low utilization)
• Check if TVL is real or wash farming
• Compare TVL to actual user count

5. Ecosystem & Narrative

Context matters:

• Is the base chain/ecosystem growing or dying?
• Compare token performance to ecosystem native token
• Check if token is listed on major trackers (CMC, CoinGecko)

Example comparison:

# If analyzing token on Hyperliquid:
hype_vol_mcap = 1.2%  # Native token
target_vol_mcap = 0.02%  # Your token

relative_health = target_vol_mcap / hype_vol_mcap
# If <0.1 (10x worse), token is dying relative to ecosystem

6. Sentiment & Catalyst Check

Use delegation for:

• Recent X/Twitter mentions (sentiment, KOL coverage)
• Upcoming events (CEX listings, partnerships, protocol upgrades)
• Community activity (Discord, Telegram, Reddit)

Red flags:

• No social media presence
• Last announcement >1 month ago
• Community size << TVL (fake TVL indicator)

Type B: Project/Protocol Airdrop Analysis Framework

Use when: Analyzing projects for airdrop potential (no token yet, or token just launched with minimal market data).

1. Context Extraction (from X/Twitter or announcement)

What to extract:

• Tweet content (product update? funding? campaign? teaser?)
• Account type (official project? founder? influencer?)
• Engagement metrics (likes, RTs, replies)
• Media attached (video, images, links)

Tools:

# Get tweet data
curl -s "https://api.fxtwitter.com/{handle}/status/{tweet_id}" | jq -r '.tweet | {text, author, likes, retweets, replies, media}'

# Get account info
curl -s "https://api.fxtwitter.com/{handle}" | jq -r '.user | {name, description, followers, website}'

2. Project Identification

Core questions:

• What problem does it solve?
• Category: AI / Infra / DeFi / Identity / L2 / Gaming / etc.
• Unique edge vs competitors?
• Target users (devs? traders? consumers?)

Research sources:

• Project bio on X
• Website (if accessible)
• GitHub org/repos
• Documentation

3. Product Reality Check

Critical validation:

# Check GitHub
curl -s "https://api.github.com/orgs/{project}/repos" | jq -r '.[] | {name, description, stars, updated_at}'

# Check specific repo
curl -s "https://api.github.com/repos/{org}/{repo}" | jq -r '{stars, forks, created_at, updated_at, language}'

# Recent commits (activity check)
curl -s "https://api.github.com/repos/{org}/{repo}/commits?per_page=5" | jq -r '.[] | {date: .commit.author.date, message: .commit.message}'

# Check npm package (if CLI tool)
curl -s "https://registry.npmjs.org/{package}" | jq -r '{name, version, description, "dist-tags": ."dist-tags"}'

Maturity indicators:

• ✅ Live product (not just whitepaper)
• ✅ Active GitHub (commits in last 30 days)
• ✅ Documentation exists
• ✅ Testnet or mainnet deployed
• ❌ Vaporware (no code, only marketing)

4. Ecosystem & Backing

VC/Funding signals:

• Check project bio for "Backed by X"
• Search Crunchbase, Twitter for funding announcements
• Look for partner logos on website

Ecosystem positioning:

• Which chain(s)? (Ethereum, Solana, Cosmos, etc.)
• Part of larger narrative? (AI agents, DeFi 2.0, RWA, etc.)
• Integrations with major protocols?

Legitimacy check:

# Search for funding news
curl -s "https://api.duckduckgo.com/?q={project}+funding+backed&format=json" | jq -r '.AbstractText'

5. Airdrop Signal Scoring (0-10)

Positive signals (+):

• ✅ No token yet (or just launched)
• ✅ User onboarding flow (login, wallet connect, testnet)
• ✅ Referral system exists
• ✅ Keywords: "early", "points", "rewards", "campaign", "waitlist"
• ✅ Active community growth
• ✅ Similar to past successful airdrops (Rabby, Zapper, etc.)
• ✅ VC backing (incentive to distribute tokens)
• ✅ Freemium model (free tier + premium = points system likely)

Negative signals (-):

• ❌ Token already exists with full circulation
• ❌ No user onboarding (just marketing site)
• ❌ Paid-only product (no free tier)
• ❌ Explicit "no token" statement
• ❌ Revenue model is pure SaaS (subscription-only)

Scoring formula:

score = 5  # baseline

# Product stage
if no_token_yet: score += 2
if user_onboarding: score += 1
if referral_system: score += 1

# Signals
if "points" in announcement: score += 1
if "early" in announcement: score += 0.5
if freemium_model: score += 1

# Backing
if vc_backed: score += 1
if major_vc: score += 0.5  # Circle, a16z, Paradigm, etc.

# Red flags
if paid_only: score -= 2
if explicit_no_token: score -= 5

return min(10, max(0, score))

Probability estimate:

• Score 8-10: 80-90% airdrop likely
• Score 6-7.5: 60-75% likely
• Score 4-5.5: 40-55% (speculative)
• Score <4: <40% (unlikely)

6. User Action Requirements

What can users do NOW?

• Install/signup (email, wallet, social auth)
• Complete onboarding (KYC, testnet tasks)
• Make transactions (swaps, deposits, trades)
• Referrals (invite friends)
• Social tasks (follow, retweet, Discord)

Effort assessment:

• LOW: Just signup/follow
• MEDIUM: Testnet transactions, small deposits
• HIGH: Mainnet activity with real funds

7. Momentum Analysis

Engagement check:

• Tweet engagement (likes/followers ratio)
• Follower growth rate
• GitHub stars growth
• Community size (Discord, Telegram)

Stage detection:

• Pre-early: <1K followers, no product
• Early: 1K-50K followers, MVP live
• Mid: 50K-200K followers, product mature
• Late: >200K followers, token likely soon

8. Red Flag Detection

Scam/farming trap signals:

• ❌ Hype without product
• ❌ Anonymous team
• ❌ Unrealistic promises ("10000x guaranteed")
• ❌ Requires upfront payment for "airdrop"
• ❌ Asks for private keys/seed phrases
• ❌ Fake partnerships (check official partner accounts)
• ❌ Copied code (check GitHub for forks of scam projects)

9. Hidden Alpha (Strategic Insights)

Non-obvious opportunities:

• Infrastructure play (if AI agents go mainstream, this becomes critical)
• First-mover in new category
• Potential acquisition target
• Ecosystem positioning (official tool for major protocol)
• Developer-first = sticky users (high retention)
• Cross-protocol exposure (using Project A might qualify for Project B airdrop)

Comparison to past successes:

• Rabby Wallet: Product-first, airdrop later → successful
• Zapper: Freemium, eventual token → successful
• LayerZero: Testnet farming → successful (but controversial)
• Arbitrum: Mainnet usage → successful

10. Final Verdict

Verdict options:

• FARM: High confidence, clear action path, good ROI potential
• WATCH: Promising but wait for explicit announcement
• SKIP: Low probability or too much effort for expected return
• AVOID: Red flags detected, likely scam/waste of time

Output format:

## VERDICT: [FARM / WATCH / SKIP / AVOID]

**Score:** X/10
**Airdrop Probability:** X%
**Stage:** [Pre-early / Early / Mid / Late]

**Reasoning:**
[2-3 sentences with key data points]

**If FARM, action steps:**
1. [Specific action with command/link]
2. [Next action]
3. [Monitoring trigger]

**If WATCH, entry conditions:**
- ✅ [Condition 1]
- ✅ [Condition 2]

**Time commitment:** [LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH]
**Expected ROI (if airdrop):** $X-Y
**Risk:** [Financial / Time / Opportunity cost]

11. Strategy & Action Plan

For FARM verdict:

**Immediate actions (next 24h):**
1. [Setup step with exact command]
2. [Onboarding step]
3. [First transaction/activity]

**Ongoing (weekly/monthly):**
- [Maintenance activity]
- [Monitoring what to watch]

**Exit triggers:**
- ❌ [Condition that invalidates thesis]
- ✅ [Condition to farm harder]

**Time commitment:** X hours/month
**Capital required:** $X-Y
**Risk level:** [LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH]

Type C: DePIN Project Analysis Framework

Use when: Analyzing Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (Helium, Peaq, IoTeX, Render, Hivemapper, etc.)

1. Infrastructure Type Classification

Categories:

• Wireless: Helium (5G/LoRaWAN), XNET (WiFi)
• Compute: Render (GPU), Akash (cloud compute), Gensyn (ML training)
• Storage: Filecoin, Arweave, Storj
• Sensors/IoT: Peaq (machine economy), IoTeX (smart devices)
• Mapping: Hivemapper (dashcam mapping), DIMO (vehicle data)
• Energy: Powerledger (grid), Arkreen (solar)

2. Hardware Requirements Assessment

Critical questions:

• What hardware is needed? (hotspot, GPU, sensor, vehicle, etc.)
• Upfront cost? ($100-$500 = accessible, $1K-$5K = medium, >$5K = high barrier)
• Technical complexity? (plug-and-play vs requires networking knowledge)
• Ongoing costs? (electricity, bandwidth, maintenance)

Barrier entry scoring:

barrier_score = 10  # start at 10 (lowest barrier)

# Hardware cost penalty
if hardware_cost > 5000: barrier_score -= 4
elif hardware_cost > 1000: barrier_score -= 2
elif hardware_cost > 500: barrier_score -= 1

# Technical complexity penalty
if requires_networking_knowledge: barrier_score -= 2
if requires_custom_setup: barrier_score -= 1

# Ongoing costs penalty
if monthly_cost > 50: barrier_score -= 2
elif monthly_cost > 20: barrier_score -= 1

# Accessibility bonus
if plug_and_play: barrier_score += 1
if no_hardware_needed: barrier_score += 3  # software-only

return max(0, min(10, barrier_score))

Verdict:

• Score 8-10: LOW BARRIER (accessible to retail)
• Score 5-7: MEDIUM BARRIER (enthusiasts only)
• Score 0-4: HIGH BARRIER (avoid unless institutional)

3. Operator Economics (ROI Analysis)

Key metrics:

# Monthly revenue per device
monthly_revenue = token_rewards_per_month * token_price

# Payback period
payback_months = hardware_cost / monthly_revenue

# Annual ROI
annual_roi = ((monthly_revenue * 12) / hardware_cost) * 100

# Benchmarks:
# Excellent: <6 months payback, >200% ROI
# Good: 6-12 months payback, 100-200% ROI
# Acceptable: 12-24 months payback, 50-100% ROI
# Poor: >24 months payback, <50% ROI

Token price risk:

• DePIN rewards are in native token
• If token drops 50%, ROI halves
• Check token volatility (ATH vs current price)

Example calculation:

Helium 5G hotspot:
- Hardware: $500
- Monthly rewards: 50 MOBILE tokens
- Token price: $0.001
- Monthly revenue: $0.05
- Payback: 10,000 months (DEAD)

Peaq machine node:
- Hardware: $0 (software-only)
- Monthly rewards: 100 PEAQ
- Token price: $0.018
- Monthly revenue: $1.80
- Payback: N/A (no hardware cost)
- But token down -97.6% from ATH (HIGH RISK)

4. Network Effects & Adoption

Critical mass indicators:

• How many devices/nodes currently active?
• Growth rate (MoM, YoY)?
• Geographic coverage?
• Actual usage vs speculative deployment?

Benchmarks:

# Device count
if devices < 1000: stage = "Pre-early"
elif devices < 10000: stage = "Early"
elif devices < 100000: stage = "Growth"
else: stage = "Mature"

# Usage vs deployment
usage_ratio = (active_users / total_devices) * 100

# Healthy: >50% (real demand)
# Speculative: 10-50% (mostly farming)
# Dead: <10% (ghost network)

Example:

• Helium (peak): 1M+ hotspots, but <5% actual usage → FARMING TRAP
• Render: 10K+ GPUs, 80%+ utilization → REAL DEMAND

5. Tokenomics for DePIN

Emission schedule:

• How many tokens minted per day/month?
• What % goes to operators vs team/treasury?
• Is emission rate sustainable?

Sell pressure calculation:

# Daily operator sell pressure
daily_operator_rewards = devices * avg_reward_per_device
daily_sell_pressure_usd = daily_operator_rewards * token_price

# Compare to daily volume
sell_pressure_ratio = (daily_sell_pressure_usd / daily_volume) * 100

# Sustainable: <10%
# Concerning: 10-30%
# Unsustainable: >30% (token will dump)

Burn mechanisms:

• Does protocol burn tokens? (usage fees, transaction fees)
• Burn rate vs emission rate?
• Net inflation or deflation?

6. Product Reality for DePIN

Validation checklist:

• ✅ Hardware available for purchase? (or waitlist?)
• ✅ Onboarding docs exist?
• ✅ Active operator community? (Discord, Telegram)
• ✅ Network map/explorer showing live devices?
• ✅ Actual customers using the service? (not just operators)

Red flags:

• ❌ Hardware "coming soon" for >6 months
• ❌ No network explorer (can't verify device count)
• ❌ Operator community larger than user community (farming trap)
• ❌ No proof of actual service usage

7. Competitive Moat

DePIN-specific moats:

• Network density: More devices = better coverage = more users (Helium's original thesis)
• Hardware lock-in: Proprietary hardware = switching cost (weak moat)
• Data quality: Better sensors/coverage = better data (Hivemapper vs Google Maps)
• First-mover: Established network hard to displace (but not impossible)

Threat assessment:

• Can Web2 incumbents do this better? (Google, AWS, Verizon)
• Can another DePIN project fork and improve?
• Is the "decentralization" actually valuable or just marketing?

8. DePIN-Specific Red Flags

Ponzi indicators:

• ❌ Rewards come from new operator deposits (not service revenue)
• ❌ No actual customers, only operators
• ❌ Emission rate >> service revenue (unsustainable)
• ❌ Token price required to stay high for ROI (circular dependency)

Overhype indicators:

• ❌ "Revolutionary" claims without proof
• ❌ Comparing to trillion-dollar industries (e.g., "We'll replace AWS")
• ❌ Roadmap with no delivered milestones
• ❌ Anonymous team or team with no relevant experience

9. DePIN Verdict Framework

Scoring matrix:

Total score → Verdict:

• 8-10: FARM (strong fundamentals, good ROI)
• 6-7.5: WATCH (promising but wait for better entry)
• 4-5.5: SKIP (too risky or poor ROI)
• 0-3.5: AVOID (likely farming trap or scam)

10. DePIN Action Plan Template

For FARM verdict:

## HARDWARE SETUP
1. Purchase: [Device name] from [vendor] (~$X)
2. Setup time: X hours
3. Technical requirements: [List]

## OPERATOR ECONOMICS
- Monthly revenue: $X (at current token price)
- Payback period: X months
- Annual ROI: X%
- Risk: Token price volatility (currently -X% from ATH)

## ONGOING MAINTENANCE
- Electricity: $X/month
- Bandwidth: X GB/month
- Monitoring: [Tools/dashboards]
- Troubleshooting: [Discord/docs links]

## EXIT STRATEGY
- Sell hardware if ROI < X%
- Dump tokens if price drops below $X
- Monitor network growth (if devices drop X%, exit)

For WATCH verdict:

## ENTRY CONDITIONS
- ✅ Token price recovers to $X (X% from current)
- ✅ Network reaches X devices (proof of adoption)
- ✅ Hardware cost drops below $X
- ✅ Operator ROI improves to >X%/year

## MONITORING
- Check monthly: [Metrics to track]
- Set alerts: [Price/network thresholds]

Type D: NFT Collection Analysis Framework

Use when: Analyzing NFT collections on OpenSea, Blur, or other marketplaces (e.g., "Is Numismatis NFT worth buying?")

1. Current Metrics Extraction

Primary data sources:

• OpenSea API (if accessible)
• OpenSea web UI (via Browser Use Cloud if Cloudflare blocks)
• Blur API
• NFTScan API

Key metrics to extract:

Floor Price:     X ETH (~$Y USD)
Total Volume:    X ETH (all-time)
Total Sales:     X sales
Holders:         X unique owners
Supply:          X NFTs
Market Cap:      X ETH (floor * supply)

Trading Activity:
├─ 24h:  X ETH (Y sales) → Avg: Z ETH/sale
├─ 7d:   X ETH (Y sales) → Avg: Z ETH/sale
└─ 30d:  X ETH (Y sales) → Avg: Z ETH/sale

Critical calculations:

# Volume per holder (liquidity indicator)
vol_per_holder = volume_24h / holders

# Holder concentration
holder_concentration = holders / supply  # Lower = more concentrated

# Average sale price trends
avg_sale_24h = volume_24h / sales_24h
avg_sale_7d = volume_7d / sales_7d
avg_sale_30d = volume_30d / sales_30d

# Declining avg sale = death spiral
if avg_sale_24h < avg_sale_7d < avg_sale_30d:
    trend = "DEATH_SPIRAL"

2. Historical Price Analysis

Chart pattern recognition:

A. Pump & Dump Pattern 🔴

Characteristics:
- Slow accumulation (0.1 → 0.2 ETH over weeks)
- Flat distribution phase (consolidation)
- Sharp pump (2-5x in days/weeks)
- Immediate crash (50-100% drop)
- Dead cat bounce (brief recovery)
- Final death spiral (continuous decline)

Example timeline:
Oct: 0.1 ETH (launch)
Dec: 0.2 ETH (accumulation)
Jan: 0.2 ETH (distribution)
Feb: 0.5 ETH (PUMP - 2.5x)
Mar: 0.0 ETH (CRASH - rug pull)
Apr: 0.4 ETH (dead cat bounce)
May: 0.003 ETH (death spiral)

Verdict: RUG PULL / ABANDONED

B. Death Spiral Pattern 🔴

Characteristics:
- Continuous decline with no support levels
- No consolidation zones
- No buying pressure
- Accelerating decline (e.g., -94% in 7 days)
- High sale count but tiny values (panic selling)

Indicators:
- Floor price -90%+ from peak
- No horizontal support lines on chart
- Volume declining but sale count high
- Avg sale price dropping faster than floor

Verdict: PROJECT DEAD

C. Healthy Correction Pattern ✅

Characteristics:
- Gradual uptrend with consolidation
- Multiple horizontal support levels
- Higher lows, higher highs
- Volume steady or increasing
- Community active during dips

Indicators:
- Floor price -20-40% from peak (normal correction)
- Clear support levels (price bounces)
- Volume/holder ratio stable
- Social media active

Verdict: HEALTHY PROJECT

Price decline severity:

decline_from_peak = ((ath_price - current_price) / ath_price) * 100

# Classification:
if decline > 95: severity = "TERMINAL"      # Project dead
elif decline > 80: severity = "CRITICAL"    # Likely abandoned
elif decline > 60: severity = "SEVERE"      # Major issues
elif decline > 40: severity = "MODERATE"    # Normal bear market
else: severity = "HEALTHY"                  # Normal volatility

3. Project Fundamentals Assessment

Basic info checklist:

Name:       [Collection name]
Concept:    [What is it? Art? Utility? PFP?]
Contract:   [Ethereum address]
Launched:   [Date] (X months ago)
Website:    [URL] ✅/❌
Twitter:    [@handle] (X followers) ✅/❌
Discord:    [Link] (X members) ✅/❌
Telegram:   [Link] ✅/❌
Status:     OpenSea Verified ✅/❌

Team & development:

Team:       ✅ Doxxed / ❌ Anonymous
Roadmap:    ✅ Exists / ❌ None
Updates:    ✅ Regular / ⚠️ Sporadic / ❌ None
Social:     ✅ Active / ⚠️ Declining / ❌ Dead
Community:  ✅ Engaged / ⚠️ Quiet / ❌ Ghost town

Utility assessment:

Staking:        ✅/❌
Rewards:        ✅/❌
Ecosystem:      ✅/❌ (DAO, token, metaverse, etc.)
Partnerships:   ✅/❌
Real Benefits:  ✅/❌ (IRL utility, access, etc.)
Use Case:       [Description or "None"]

Verdict: [STRONG UTILITY / WEAK UTILITY / ZERO UTILITY]

4. Red Flag Detection (NFT-Specific)

10 Major Warning Signs:

1. Catastrophic Floor Price 🔴

Floor < $10 = Dead project territory
Floor < $50 = Severe distress
Floor < $100 = Concerning (depends on mint price)

Context matters: If mint was $100 and floor is $5 = -95% = DEAD

2. Abandoned Community 🔴

Twitter followers < 1K after 6+ months = DEAD
No Discord/Telegram = ABANDONED
Last tweet > 1 month ago = INACTIVE
Discord last message > 1 week ago = GHOST TOWN

3. Zero Market Cap 🔴

If OpenSea reports 0.0 ETH market cap = NO VALUE

4. No Development 🔴

No roadmap updates = ABANDONED
No new features/utilities = STAGNANT
No team communication = RUG PULL

5. Suspicious Volume 🔴

High sale count but low total volume = WASH TRADING or PANIC SELLING

Example:
- 129 sales/day but only 1.1 ETH total
- Avg: 0.0085 ETH/sale ($20)
- Pattern: Desperate holders dumping at any price

6. Poor Holder Distribution 🔴

Holders / Supply < 60% = High concentration risk

Example:
- 285 holders / 547 supply = 52%
- Many holders own multiple NFTs
- Whales can dump and crash floor

7. No Utility 🔴

Just collectible, no use case = WEAK VALUE PROP
No staking, rewards, or benefits = NO REASON TO HOLD

8. Declining Momentum 🔴

All metrics trending DOWN:
├─ Price: -X% from 30d avg
├─ Volume: Declining
├─ Holders: Decreasing
└─ Community: Shrinking

Trend: DEATH SPIRAL

9. Fast Death 🔴

Launched < 12 months ago but already dead = EXTREMELY FAST FAILURE

Example:
- Launched: Aug 2025
- Dead by: May 2026 (9 months)
- Speed: RED FLAG (most projects take 18-24 months to die)

10. No Recovery Catalysts 🔴

No team announcements = NO HOPE
No roadmap updates = NO FUTURE
No partnerships = NO GROWTH
No utility additions = NO VALUE
No community growth = NO BUYERS

Recovery Chance: ~5% (near zero)

5. Positive Signals (Rare in Dying Projects)

What to look for:

✅ OpenSea Verified (but doesn't save dying project)
✅ Website still online (but check last update)
✅ Unique concept (but execution matters more)
✅ Very cheap entry (but cheap for a reason)
✅ Complete collection minted (but doesn't mean success)
✅ Active Discord (>100 messages/day)
✅ Regular team updates (weekly or more)
✅ Partnerships announced (with proof)
✅ Utility roadmap (with delivered milestones)
✅ Community events (spaces, AMAs, giveaways)

Note: In dying projects, positives are usually MEANINGLESS compared to negatives.

6. Risk Assessment Framework

Risk Level Calculation:

risk_score = 0  # Start at 0 (lowest risk)

# Price risk
if floor_decline > 95: risk_score += 4
elif floor_decline > 80: risk_score += 3
elif floor_decline > 60: risk_score += 2
elif floor_decline > 40: risk_score += 1

# Liquidity risk
if volume_24h < 1: risk_score += 3  # <1 ETH/day = CRITICAL
elif volume_24h < 5: risk_score += 2
elif volume_24h < 10: risk_score += 1

# Community risk
if no_discord_telegram: risk_score += 2
if twitter_followers < 1000: risk_score += 1
if last_update > 30_days: risk_score += 2

# Development risk
if no_roadmap: risk_score += 1
if no_utility: risk_score += 1

# Total risk (0-10 scale)
risk_level = min(10, risk_score)

# Classification:
if risk_level >= 8: return "EXTREME"
elif risk_level >= 6: return "HIGH"
elif risk_level >= 4: return "MEDIUM"
else: return "LOW"

Scenario Probability Estimation:

# Best case (recovery)
if risk_level >= 8:
    best_case_prob = 5  # 5% chance
    best_case_gain = "3-5x"
elif risk_level >= 6:
    best_case_prob = 15
    best_case_gain = "2-3x"
else:
    best_case_prob = 30
    best_case_gain = "1.5-2x"

# Most likely (continued decline)
most_likely_prob = 100 - best_case_prob - 15  # Reserve 15% for worst case
most_likely_outcome = "50-90% more loss"

# Worst case (complete death)
worst_case_prob = 15
worst_case_outcome = "100% loss"

7. NFT Verdict Framework

Verdict options:

• BUY (SEROK): Strong fundamentals, healthy chart, active community, clear utility
• HOLD: Already own, project still has potential, wait for recovery
• AVOID (JANGAN SEROK): Death spiral, abandoned project, no recovery chance
• WATCH: Interesting but wait for better entry or more data

Decision matrix:

Special case: Death spiral pattern detected

If chart shows:
- Pump & dump pattern (Feb peak → Mar crash)
- -90%+ decline in <3 months
- No support levels
- Volume declining but sale count high

→ VERDICT: AVOID (regardless of other factors)
→ REASON: "Ini bukan dip, ini project mati"

8. Output Format (Indonesian Style)

User prefers:

• Direct verdict upfront (JANGAN SEROK / SEROK)
• Concise explanations (no fluff)
• Data-driven reasoning
• Clear risk assessment
• Specific numbers (not ranges)

Template:

# 🔴 [COLLECTION NAME] — ANALISA MENDALAM

## 🎯 JAWABAN SINGKAT

### **"Lagi dump, apakah kita serok?"**

# ❌ **JANGAN SEROK!**

**Ini bukan dip, ini project MATI!** 💀

---

## 📊 CURRENT METRICS (Date)

Floor Price: X ETH (~$Y USD) Total Volume: X ETH (all-time) Total Sales: X sales Holders: X unique owners Supply: X NFTs Market Cap: X ETH

Trading Activity: ├─ 24h: X ETH (Y sales) → Avg: Z ETH/sale ├─ 7d: X ETH (Y sales) → Avg: Z ETH/sale └─ 30d: X ETH (Y sales) → Avg: Z ETH/sale

---

## 📉 HISTORICAL ANALYSIS

**Price Trends:**

Current Floor: X ETH ($Y) 30-day Average: X ETH ($Y) Decline: -X% ⚠️⚠️⚠️

Status: [DEATH SPIRAL / HEALTHY CORRECTION / etc.]

**Chart Pattern:** [Pump & Dump / Death Spiral / Healthy]

**Timeline:**

[Month] [Year]: ~X ETH ([Stage]) [Month] [Year]: ~X ETH ([Stage]) ... [Month] [Year]: X ETH ← NOW

Trend: [↓↓↓ CONTINUOUS DECLINE / ↑ RECOVERY / etc.]

---

## 🏢 PROJECT FUNDAMENTALS

**Basic Info:**

Name: [Name] Concept: [Description] Contract: [Address] Launched: [Date] (X months ago) Website: [URL] ✅/❌ Twitter: [@handle] (X followers) ✅/❌ Discord: [Link] ✅/❌ Status: OpenSea Verified ✅/❌

**Team & Development:**

Team: ✅/❌ Roadmap: ✅/❌ Updates: ✅/❌ Social: ✅/⚠️/❌ Community: ✅/⚠️/❌

**Utility:**

[List of utilities or "ZERO UTILITY"]

---

## 🚩 RED FLAGS (X MAJOR WARNINGS)

### **1. [Red Flag Name]** 🔴

[Description with data]

[Repeat for each red flag]

---

## ✅ POSITIVE SIGNALS (Minimal/None)

[List positives or "NONE"]

**Note:** [Context on why positives don't matter]

---

## ⚖️ RISK ASSESSMENT

**Risk Level: 🔴 [EXTREME / HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW] (X/10)**

**Scenarios:**

**1. Best Case (X% probability):**

[Description] Gain: Xx from current price Likelihood: [VERY LOW / LOW / MODERATE / HIGH]

**2. Most Likely (X% probability):**

[Description] Loss: -X% more from current Status: [Description] Likelihood: [VERY HIGH / HIGH / MODERATE]

**3. Worst Case (X% probability):**

[Description] Loss: -100% of investment Status: [Description] Likelihood: [HIGH / MODERATE / LOW]

**Risk Factors:**

Liquidity: 🔴 [CRITICAL / HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW] Abandonment: 🔴 [HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW] Price Decline: 🔴 [CRITICAL / SEVERE / MODERATE] Recovery Potential: 🔴 [NEAR ZERO / LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH] Community: 🔴 [DEAD / DECLINING / ACTIVE] Utility: 🔴 [NONE / WEAK / STRONG] Development: 🔴 [ABANDONED / SLOW / ACTIVE]

**Overall Risk:** 🔴 **[VERDICT]**

---

## 🎯 FINAL RECOMMENDATION

# ❌ **[AVOID / BUY / HOLD / WATCH] — [REASON]**

**WHY NOT TO BUY:** (if AVOID)

**1. [Reason 1]**

[Explanation with data]

[Repeat for each reason]

**WHAT TO DO:**

**If you HOLD [Collection]:**

❌ [Action 1] ❌ [Action 2] ✅ [Recommended action]

**If you're CONSIDERING buying:**

❌ [What not to do] ✅ [What to do instead]

**Better alternatives:**

[List of better NFT projects or strategies]

---

## 📝 CONCLUSION

**[Collection Name] = [VERDICT]**

**Signs of [Status]:**
- ✅ [Sign 1]
- ✅ [Sign 2]
- ✅ [Sign 3]

---

# 🇮🇩 FINAL ANSWER:

## ❌ **[VERDICT IN INDONESIAN]**

**[Concise explanation in Indonesian]**

**[Collection] = 💀 [STATUS]**

**Recovery chance: X%**  
**Loss risk: X%**

**Verdict: [FINAL VERDICT]** 🔴

---

**Disclaimer:** Not financial advice. DYOR.

**Analysis Date:** [Date]  
**Data Sources:** [OpenSea, Twitter, etc.]

9. Data Gathering for NFTs

Primary method: Browser Use Cloud API

Why Browser Use over Scrapling:

• ✅ Zero disk usage (cloud-based)
• ✅ Zero RAM usage (no local browser)
• ✅ Bypasses Cloudflare automatically
• ✅ Stealth browser (forked Chromium)
• ✅ Residential proxies built-in
• ❌ Pay per use (but worth it for VPS with limited resources)

Scrapling comparison:

• ❌ 650-900 MB disk
• ❌ 200-400 MB RAM per browser session
• ❌ Too heavy for 2GB RAM VPS
• ✅ Free (self-hosted)

Verdict: Use Browser Use Cloud for NFT scraping on resource-constrained VPS.

API endpoint:

# Create session
curl -X POST "https://api.browser-use.com/v3/sessions" \
  -H "X-Browser-Use-API-Key: bu_..." \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "url": "https://opensea.io/collection/{slug}/analytics",
    "task": "Extract floor price, volume (24h/7d/30d), holders, supply, recent sales",
    "model": "gpt-4o-mini",
    "max_steps": 15
  }'

# Poll for result
curl -X GET "https://api.browser-use.com/v3/sessions/{session_id}" \
  -H "X-Browser-Use-API-Key: bu_..."

Fallback if Browser Use unavailable:

• OpenSea API (if accessible)
• Blur API
• NFTScan API
• Manual user screenshot (ask user to provide data)

See: references/browser-use-cloud.md for full API documentation and self-registration flow.

Polymarket bot ecosystem: See references/polymarket-bots-ecosystem.md for comprehensive analysis of 20+ trading bot repositories, strategies, and tech stacks.

10. Common Pitfalls (NFT-Specific)

Pitfall 1: "Cheap = Good Deal" Fallacy

Problem: Low floor price doesn't mean undervalued

Solution: Check WHY it's cheap:

• Project abandoned? (team gone, no updates)
• No utility? (just art, no use case)
• No community? (Discord dead, Twitter inactive)
• Death spiral? (continuous decline, no support)

Example:

• Floor $5 but project dead = NOT A DEAL
• Floor $500 but active community + utility = POTENTIALLY GOOD

Pitfall 2: "High Volume = Healthy" Fallacy

Problem: High sale count doesn't mean healthy project

Solution: Check average sale price:

avg_sale = volume / sale_count

if avg_sale < floor_price * 0.5:
    # People selling below floor = PANIC
    status = "DEATH_SPIRAL"

Example:

• 129 sales/day, 1.1 ETH volume = Avg $20/sale
• Floor is $8 = People dumping at any price
• Status: PANIC SELLING, not healthy volume

Pitfall 3: "OpenSea Verified = Safe" Fallacy

Problem: Verification doesn't prevent rug pulls

Solution: Verify badge only confirms identity, not quality:

• Check team activity (Twitter, Discord)
• Check development (roadmap progress)
• Check community (engagement, not just size)

Pitfall 4: Ignoring Chart Patterns

Problem: Focusing only on current price, not trend

Solution: Always check historical chart:

• Pump & dump pattern = RUG PULL
• Death spiral = ABANDONED
• Healthy correction = TEMPORARY DIP

User provided chart showing pump & dump:

• Feb peak (0.5 ETH) → Mar crash (0.0 ETH) → Apr bounce (0.4 ETH) → May death (0.003 ETH)
• Pattern: TEXTBOOK RUG PULL
• Verdict: AVOID (not a dip, project dead)

Pitfall 5: "High Risk = High Reward" Fallacy

Problem: Assuming dying project = opportunity

Solution: Calculate expected value:

expected_value = (prob_gain * gain) + (prob_loss * loss)

# Example (dying NFT):
# 5% chance of 3x = +0.15
# 95% chance of -90% = -0.855
# Expected value = -0.705 (NEGATIVE!)

if expected_value < 0:
    verdict = "AVOID"  # You WILL lose money on average

Pitfall 6: Resource Constraints (VPS-Specific)

Problem: User rejected Scrapling immediately: "gede banget makan emori dan ram"

Lesson: On 2GB RAM VPS, user has ZERO tolerance for heavy tools:

• 650-900 MB disk = INSTANT REJECTION
• 200-400 MB RAM = INSTANT REJECTION
• "gede banget" = STOP, don't try to convince

Solution: Always check resource impact BEFORE recommending tools:

• Disk: <100 MB = OK, >500 MB = ASK FIRST
• RAM: <50 MB = OK, >100 MB = ASK FIRST
• If user says "gede banget" = IMMEDIATELY pivot to lightweight alternative

Alternative for NFT scraping:

• Browser Use Cloud (0 MB disk, 0 MB RAM) ✅
• OpenSea API (0 MB disk, 0 MB RAM) ✅
• Ask user for screenshot (0 MB disk, 0 MB RAM) ✅

Real-Time Data Gathering (X/Twitter)

Real-Time Data Gathering Techniques

X/Twitter Data (fxtwitter API)

Primary tool: fxtwitter API (no auth required, works from terminal)

Get Tweet Data:

# Single tweet
curl -s "https://api.fxtwitter.com/{handle}/status/{tweet_id}" | jq -r '.tweet | {text, created_at, likes, retweets, replies, author: .author.name}'

# With media check
curl -s "https://api.fxtwitter.com/{handle}/status/{tweet_id}" | jq -r '.tweet | {text, likes, retweets, has_media: (.media != null), media_count: (.media | length)}'

Note: Use .author.name not .author.screen_name for display name.

Get Account Info:

curl -s "https://api.fxtwitter.com/{handle}" | jq -r '.user | {name, description, followers, following, tweets, verified}'

Engagement Analysis:

# Calculate engagement rate
engagement_rate = ((likes + retweets + replies) / followers) * 100

# Benchmarks:
# Excellent: >5%
# Good: 2-5%
# Normal: 1-2%
# Weak: 0.5-1%
# Dead: <0.5%

Fallback if fxtwitter blocked:

• Try vxtwitter.com (same API structure)
• Try fixupx.com
• Use web search: curl -s "https://duckduckgo.com/html/?q=site:twitter.com+{query}"

GitHub Data

Organization repos:

curl -s "https://api.github.com/orgs/{project}/repos" | jq -r '.[0:5] | .[] | {name, description, stars: .stargazers_count, updated: .updated_at}'

Specific repo details:

curl -s "https://api.github.com/repos/{org}/{repo}" | jq -r '{name, stars: .stargazers_count, forks, created_at, updated_at, language}'

Recent activity check:

curl -s "https://api.github.com/repos/{org}/{repo}/commits?per_page=5" | jq -r '.[] | {date: .commit.author.date, message: .commit.message}'

CoinGecko Data

Step 1: Search for token ID

# Search by name/symbol
curl -s "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/search?query={token_name}" | jq -r '.coins[] | select(.name | test("Token"; "i")) | {id, symbol, name, market_cap_rank}'

Step 2: Get comprehensive market data

# Full market data (single call)
curl -s "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/{token_id}?localization=false&tickers=false&market_data=true&community_data=true&developer_data=true" | jq '{
  price: .market_data.current_price.usd,
  mcap: .market_data.market_cap.usd,
  fdv: .market_data.fully_diluted_valuation.usd,
  volume_24h: .market_data.total_volume.usd,
  circulating: .market_data.circulating_supply,
  total: .market_data.total_supply,
  max: .market_data.max_supply,
  ath: .market_data.ath.usd,
  ath_date: .market_data.ath_date.usd,
  atl: .market_data.atl.usd,
  atl_date: .market_data.atl_date.usd,
  price_change_24h: .market_data.price_change_percentage_24h,
  price_change_7d: .market_data.price_change_percentage_7d,
  price_change_30d: .market_data.price_change_percentage_30d,
  twitter: .community_data.twitter_followers,
  github_stars: .developer_data.stars,
  github_forks: .developer_data.forks,
  commits_4w: .developer_data.commit_count_4_weeks
}'

Step 3: Get exchange liquidity data

# Top exchanges with spread data
curl -s "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/{token_id}/tickers?depth=true" | jq '[.tickers[] | {exchange: .market.name, pair: (.base + "-" + .target), volume_usd: .converted_volume.usd, spread: .bid_ask_spread_percentage}] | .[0:5]'

Step 4: Get project links

curl -s "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/{token_id}" | jq -r '.links | {homepage: .homepage[0], twitter: .twitter_screen_name, telegram: .telegram_channel_identifier, github: .repos_url.github[0]}'
`

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