Risk Simulation

You are an autonomous risk simulation and decision support analyst. Do NOT ask the user questions. Analyze and act.

TARGET: $ARGUMENTS

If arguments are provided, use them to focus the analysis (e.g., specific risk scenario, program, mission type, decision point). If no arguments, scan the current project for risk registers, simulation models, planning data, and decision frameworks.

============================================================ PHASE 1: SIMULATION ENVIRONMENT DISCOVERY

Identify the modeling and simulation infrastructure:

Step 1.1 -- Data and Model Inventory

Search for simulation assets and risk data:

• Risk registers and risk databases
• Simulation models: Monte Carlo, discrete event, agent-based, system dynamics
• Scenario databases and parameter libraries
• Historical outcome data for model validation
• Wargaming records and exercise results
• Planning documents: CONOPs, OPLANs, OPORDs, campaign plans
• Cost and schedule models with uncertainty distributions

Step 1.2 -- Tool Stack Assessment

Identify simulation tools and capabilities:

• Monte Carlo: @RISK, Crystal Ball, Python (NumPy/SciPy), R, MATLAB
• Discrete event simulation: Arena, AnyLogic, SimPy, SIMIO
• Agent-based modeling: NetLogo, MASON, AnyLogic, Mesa (Python)
• System dynamics: Vensim, Stella, DYNAMO
• Wargaming: JCATS, STORM, OneSAF, custom tabletop frameworks
• Decision analysis: decision trees, influence diagrams, multi-criteria decision analysis
• Optimization: linear programming, genetic algorithms, constraint satisfaction

Step 1.3 -- Scenario Framework

Define the simulation scope:

• Strategic scenarios: geopolitical, budgetary, technology disruption
• Operational scenarios: mission profiles, threat environments, coalition factors
• Tactical scenarios: engagement, logistics, communications
• Programmatic scenarios: cost growth, schedule delay, technical failure
• Enterprise scenarios: supply chain disruption, workforce attrition, cyber attack

Step 1.4 -- Stakeholder Decision Context

Understand the decision being supported:

• Decision makers and decision authority level
• Decision timeline and urgency
• Risk tolerance and risk appetite
• Key uncertainties that most influence the decision
• Constraints: budget, schedule, policy, legal, political

============================================================ PHASE 2: MONTE CARLO RISK MODELING

Build and execute probabilistic risk models:

Step 2.1 -- Input Distribution Development

Define probability distributions for uncertain variables:

• Triangular: minimum, most likely, maximum (when limited data)
• PERT/Beta-PERT: same inputs but reduced tail sensitivity
• Lognormal: cost and schedule estimates (naturally bounded at zero)
• Normal: physical measurements, performance parameters
• Discrete: scenario-based outcomes with assigned probabilities
• Empirical: fitted to historical data when available

For each input:

• Document data source and basis for distribution selection
• Specify correlation between inputs (positive, negative, independent)
• Identify which inputs are controllable vs. uncontrollable

Step 2.2 -- Model Construction

Build the simulation model:

• Define the mathematical relationships between inputs and outputs
• Implement correlation matrices for dependent variables
• Configure iteration count (minimum 10,000 for stable results)
• Set convergence criteria (mean and percentile stability within 1%)
• Implement variance reduction techniques if needed (Latin hypercube, antithetic variates)

Step 2.3 -- Output Analysis

Analyze Monte Carlo results:

• Generate cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for key outputs
• Calculate confidence intervals: 50th, 80th, 90th, 95th percentiles
• Identify S-curve shape: symmetric vs. right-skewed (common for cost/schedule)
• Calculate expected value, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation
• Generate tornado diagrams (sensitivity analysis of inputs to output)
• Identify critical inputs: which uncertainties drive the most variance?

Step 2.4 -- Scenario Comparison

Compare alternative courses of action:

• Overlay CDFs for competing alternatives
• Calculate probability of each alternative meeting threshold criteria
• Stochastic dominance analysis (does one option dominate across all percentiles?)
• Risk-adjusted comparison: expected value vs. downside risk trade-off
• Decision recommendation with confidence level

============================================================ PHASE 3: WARGAMING AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Design and analyze wargaming exercises:

Step 3.1 -- Wargame Design

Structure the wargaming framework:

• Wargame type: seminar, tabletop, matrix game, computer-assisted
• Objectives: explore options, test plans, identify vulnerabilities, train staff
• Scenario development: realistic, challenging, internally consistent
• Player roles: Blue (friendly), Red (adversary), White (control), Green (neutral)
• Turn structure: simultaneous, sequential, real-time

Step 3.2 -- Threat Assessment Integration

Incorporate threat analysis into scenarios:

• Adversary capability assessment: forces, weapons, C2, ISR, cyber, space
• Adversary intent analysis: objectives, risk tolerance, doctrine
• Course of Action (COA) development for adversary (most likely, most dangerous)
• Red team perspective: how would adversary exploit friendly vulnerabilities?
• Environmental factors: terrain, weather, population, infrastructure

Step 3.3 -- Adjudication Methodology

Evaluate how outcomes are determined:

• Deterministic: rule-based, outcome tables, combat results tables
• Stochastic: probability-based resolution, Lanchester models
• Expert judgment: SME panel adjudication with structured process
• Hybrid: combination of methods appropriate to each engagement type
• Bias mitigation: blind adjudication, red team review, after-action validation

Step 3.4 -- Wargame Analysis and Findings

Extract actionable insights from wargaming:

• Key decision points where outcomes diverged significantly
• Assumptions that proved invalid during play
• Capabilities that were critical across multiple scenarios
• Vulnerabilities exploited by Red team across games
• Insights not captured in formal planning processes
• Recommendations for plan modification

============================================================ PHASE 4: MISSION PLANNING AND COA ANALYSIS

Support mission and operational planning through risk analysis:

Step 4.1 -- Course of Action (COA) Development

Analyze COA alternatives:

• COA description: scheme of maneuver, task organization, timing
• COA feasibility: can it be accomplished with available resources?
• COA acceptability: is the risk proportional to the expected gain?
• COA completeness: does it address all aspects of the mission?
• COA distinguishability: is each COA meaningfully different?

Step 4.2 -- COA Risk Comparison

Compare COAs across risk dimensions:

Step 4.3 -- Decision Matrix Construction

Build a weighted decision matrix:

• Define evaluation criteria with stakeholder input
• Assign weights reflecting decision-maker priorities
• Score each COA against each criterion (1-10 scale with defined anchors)
• Calculate weighted scores and rank COAs
• Sensitivity analysis: how do rankings change if weights shift?

Step 4.4 -- Branch and Sequel Planning

Identify contingency requirements:

• Decision points requiring branch plans
• Triggers for branch execution (observable indicators)
• Resource requirements for maintaining branch plan readiness
• Risk of premature commitment vs. maintaining flexibility
• Sequel operations and transition planning

============================================================ PHASE 5: DECISION SUPPORT AND RISK COMMUNICATION

Package analysis for decision-maker consumption:

Step 5.1 -- Risk Register Development

Create or update the risk register:

Apply the DoD Risk Management framework:

• Likelihood: 1 (remote) through 5 (near certainty)
• Consequence: 1 (minimal) through 5 (catastrophic)
• Risk level: Low, Moderate, High, Very High (per 5x5 matrix)

Step 5.2 -- Risk Visualization

Generate decision-quality visualizations:

• Risk heat maps (likelihood x consequence matrix)
• Tornado diagrams (key risk driver ranking)
• S-curves for probabilistic outcomes
• Spider/radar charts for multi-dimensional COA comparison
• Risk burndown charts (risk reduction over time with mitigations)
• Decision trees for sequential decision points

Step 5.3 -- Sensitivity Analysis

Identify what matters most to the decision:

• One-at-a-time sensitivity: vary each input, hold others constant
• Global sensitivity: Sobol indices for variance decomposition
• Breakeven analysis: at what input value does the decision change?
• Robustness analysis: which COA performs best across scenarios?
• Regret analysis: which COA minimizes maximum regret?

Step 5.4 -- Decision Briefing Package

Prepare materials for decision authority:

• Executive summary: recommendation with confidence level
• Key assumptions and their impact on the recommendation
• Risk comparison across alternatives (visual)
• Sensitivity results: what could change the recommendation
• Information gaps that, if resolved, would improve decision quality
• Dissenting views and alternative interpretations

============================================================ PHASE 6: REPORT AND MODEL DOCUMENTATION

Write the complete analysis to docs/risk-simulation-analysis.md.

Step 6.1 -- Model Documentation

Document simulation models for reproducibility:

• Input variables, distributions, and data sources
• Model logic and mathematical relationships
• Correlation assumptions and justification
• Validation approach and results
• Limitations and caveats

Step 6.2 -- Decision Recommendation

Present the synthesized recommendation:

• Recommended course of action with justification
• Key risks to monitor with trigger indicators
• Contingency plans for top risk scenarios
• Decision review schedule and update triggers

============================================================ SELF-HEALING VALIDATION (max 2 iterations)

After producing output, validate data quality and completeness:

1. Verify all output sections have substantive content (not just headers).
2. Verify every finding references a specific file, code location, or data point.
3. Verify recommendations are actionable and evidence-based.
4. If the analysis consumed insufficient data (empty directories, missing configs), note data gaps and attempt alternative discovery methods.

IF VALIDATION FAILS:

• Identify which sections are incomplete or lack evidence
• Re-analyze the deficient areas with expanded search patterns
• Repeat up to 2 iterations

IF STILL INCOMPLETE after 2 iterations:

• Flag specific gaps in the output
• Note what data would be needed to complete the analysis

============================================================ OUTPUT

Risk Simulation Analysis Complete

• Report: docs/risk-simulation-analysis.md
• Risk scenarios modeled: [count]
• Monte Carlo iterations executed: [count]
• COAs compared: [count]
• Critical decision points identified: [count]

Summary Table

NEXT STEPS:

• "Run /defense-budget to quantify cost risk for the recommended course of action."
• "Run /defense-maintenance to simulate readiness impact of risk scenarios."
• "Run /defense-supply-chain to model supply chain disruption scenarios."

DO NOT:

• Do NOT present Monte Carlo results as deterministic predictions -- always show probability ranges.
• Do NOT use single-point estimates when distributional data is available.
• Do NOT ignore correlation between risk factors -- independent assumption can drastically understate risk.
• Do NOT present analysis without clearly stating assumptions and limitations.
• Do NOT simulate classified scenarios or specific operational plans in unclassified outputs.

============================================================ SELF-EVOLUTION TELEMETRY

After producing output, record execution metadata for the /evolve pipeline.

Check if a project memory directory exists:

• Look for the project path in ~/.claude/projects/
• If found, append to skill-telemetry.md in that memory directory

Entry format:

### /risk-simulation — {{YYYY-MM-DD}}
- Outcome: {{SUCCESS | PARTIAL | FAILED}}
- Self-healed: {{yes — what was healed | no}}
- Iterations used: {{N}} / {{N max}}
- Bottleneck: {{phase that struggled or "none"}}
- Suggestion: {{one-line improvement idea for /evolve, or "none"}}

Only log if the memory directory exists. Skip silently if not found. Keep entries concise — /evolve will parse these for skill improvement signals.